New York’s electric power system may face shortfalls in supply starting next summer due to rising consumer demand and power plant retirements outpacing new construction. The New York Independent System Operator (NYISO) warned that the grid is at a significant inflection point and needs “several thousand megawatts of new dispatchable generation” within the next 10 years. The state’s aging infrastructure, rapid growth of large loads like data centers, and difficulty in developing new supply drive the state’s “profound reliability challenges.” The issue could potentially affect the Hudson Valley, too.<\/p>\n
ALBANY, N.Y. (NEXSTAR) \u2014 New York\u2019s electric power system faces possible shortfalls in supply starting next summer in New York City and on Long Island because of rising consumer demand and power plant retirements outpacing new construction. The New York Independent System Operator outlined the risks, cautioning about the grid\u2019s significant inflection point.<\/p>\n
\t Zach Smith\u2014the Senior Vice President of System and Resource Planning at NYISO, the organization that manages and plans the state\u2019s electric grid and market\u2014said the system needs \u201cseveral thousand megawatts of new dispatchable generation.\u201d The organization issued its short-term assessment of reliability for the third quarter of 2025 and a draft of the 2025 to 2034 comprehensive reliability plan. These reports preview the next five and 10 years, respectively.<\/p>\n The CRP warns that aging infrastructure, the rapid growth of large loads like data centers, and more difficulty in developing new supply drives the state\u2019s \u201cprofound reliability challenges.\u201d NYISO Senior Vice President of System and Resource Planning Zach Smith said the system may need \u201cseveral thousand megawatts of new dispatchable generation\u201d within the next 10 years, depending on future demand and retirement patterns.<\/p>\n \t The STAR report projected shortfalls in New York City and on Long Island within the next three years. The city\u2019s concerns center on the retirement of 32 generator units on the Gowanus 2 and 3 and Narrows 1 and 2 barges in New York City, totaling 672\u00a0megawatts. These retirements followed a 2019 Department of Environmental Conservation regulation limiting nitrogen oxides emissions from simple-cycle combustion turbines.<\/p>\n New York City may be 410\u00a0to\u00a0650\u00a0megawatts short for six to\u00a0eight\u00a0peak summer hours a day during 2026. The shortage could be as much as 1,130\u00a0megawatts by 2030, over eight\u00a0to\u00a013\u00a0hours. The short-term assessment of reliability for quarter 2 of 2023 previously identified a similar issue, so NYISO required the Gowanus and Narrows units to stay online past a DEC deadline of May 1, 2025.<\/p>\n \t The issue could potentially affect the Hudson Valley, too. NYISO projected the region to be short by 260\u00a0megawatts over three\u00a0hours in 2030 as the shortage spreads from NYC.<\/p>\n Long Island\u2019s shortfalls would be driven by the deactivation notices at Pinelawn Power 1, worth 82\u00a0megawatts, and Far Rockaway Gas Turbine 1 and 2, worth 121\u00a0megawatts. The area is projected to be short by 39\u00a0to\u00a0116 megawatts starting in summer 2027, reaching 175 megawatts by 2030. NYISO determined that the Far Rockaway gas turbines and the Pinelawn generator have to operate as interim service providers compensated under a regulated rate starting December 25, 2025, to address that short term gap.<\/p>\n \t Long term, the most pessimistic outlook had the state short by up to 10,000\u00a0megawatts by 2034. The decade-long CRP recognized the state\u2019s reliance on aging plants as a major threat. About 25% of the state\u2019s total power comes from plants that have been operating for over 50 years.<\/p>\n The CRP estimated that about 3,000\u00a0megawatts of fossil-fuel power could be lost unexpectedly by 2034, with 60% of that risk concentrated in NYC. Two upstate nuclear generators, R.E. Ginna and Nine Mile Point 1, are the oldest nuclear facilities still in operation in the entire country, with licenses set to expire by 2035.<\/p>\n \t Uncertainty over future demand\u2014largely fueled by corporate interests\u2014further complicates the issue. In September, NYISO tallied over 10,000\u00a0megawatts of large load projects\u2014like semiconductor manufacturing and data centers\u2014proposed by 2031. That\u2019s almost double the previous year, at an average demand of 285\u00a0megawatts. NYISO said that this growth \u201cfar outpace[s] the development of new supply.\u201d<\/p>\n Responding to the NYISO numbers, the New York Building Congress worried that, for every two megawatts of power retired, \u201conly one megawatt is added.\u201d The group called for urgent action to address the crisis, including expediting projects like the Northeast Supply Enhancement project, expanding transmission, and adding storage to supply the power grid with \u201cfirm, dispatchable power.\u201d<\/p>\n \t The Business Council of New York State, Inc., through President and CEO Heather Mulligan, echoed the call for an \u201call-of-the-above\u201d approach. Mulligan cautioned that state mandates limiting supply would \u201churt the state\u2019s overall economic climate\u201d and discourage chip manufacturers from bringing business to the state.<\/p>\n And Republican Assemblymember Matt Simpson criticized the state\u2019s energy policies, arguing that Governor Kathy Hochul and Democratic legislators should \u201cmodernize our grid and incentivize diverse energy sources\u201d to keep power bills for New Yorkers.<\/p>\n
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