{"id":28152,"date":"2025-11-04T13:03:10","date_gmt":"2025-11-04T13:03:10","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-ny\/28152\/"},"modified":"2025-11-04T13:03:10","modified_gmt":"2025-11-04T13:03:10","slug":"final-polls-predict-winners-of-new-york-new-jersey-virginia-elections","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-ny\/28152\/","title":{"rendered":"Final polls predict winners of New York, New Jersey, Virginia elections"},"content":{"rendered":"

Newsweek has rounded up what the latest polls are saying about the elections in New York, New Jersey and Virginia as Americans cast their votes.<\/p>\n

Why It Matters<\/p>\n

The 2025 races in the three states are drawing national attention as voters prepare to select leaders in three high-profile contests.<\/p>\n

The results could set the tone for the 2026 midterms and provide insight into shifting political dynamics on the East Coast. The outcomes will also serve as a measure of support for the Democratic and Republican parties.<\/p>\n

What To KnowNew York City Mayor’s Race<\/p>\n

Democrat Assemblyman Zohran Mamdani is favored to win the mayoral contest against former Governor Andrew Cuomo, running as an independent, and Republican Curtis Sliwa.<\/p>\n

According to the latest Marist Poll<\/a> (conducted October 24-28), Mamdani leads Cuomo by 16 points among likely voters, 48 percent to 32 percent, with Sliwa at 16 percent. The poll sampled 792 likely voters and has a margin of error of =\/-4.2 percent.<\/p>\n

A separate AtlasIntel poll<\/a> places Mamdani\u2019s lead at 4.5 points over Cuomo (43.9 percent to Cuomo\u2019s 39.4 percent). Some 2,404 people were surveyed between October 31 and November 2. The poll has a margin of error of =\/- 2 percentage points.<\/p>\n

In a Fox News poll<\/a>, Mamdani has a 16-point lead with 47 percent on Cuomo (31 percent). These results are based on 971 likely voters questioned between October 24 and October 28\u2014there is a margin of error of +\/- 3 percentage points.<\/p>\n

\"\"New Jersey Governor’s Race<\/p>\n

The New Jersey gubernatorial race between Democrat Mikie Sherrill and Republican Jack Ciattarelli is one of the closest in recent history.<\/p>\n

The latest AtlasIntel poll<\/a> (October 25-30; 1,639 likely voters, =\/-2 percent margin) gives Sherrill a narrow edge, 50.2 percent to 49.3 percent.<\/p>\n

Meanwhile, a John Zogby Strategies poll<\/a>, carried out among 1,205 people between October 31 and November 3, places Sherrill ahead (55 percent) of Ciattarelli (43.4 percent). There is a +\/- 2.9 percentage point margin of error.<\/p>\n

Research Co<\/a>. also has Sherrill in the lead with 3 points more than Ciattarelli (52 percent to 48 percent) among 450 likely voters questioned between November 2 and 3\u2014there is a =\/- 4.5 percentage point margin of error.<\/p>\n

Virginia Governor’s Race<\/p>\n

Democratic incumbent Abigail Spanberger appears favored over Republican Winsome Earle-Sears.<\/p>\n

Trafalgar Group has given her a 5.6 percentage point lead over Earle-Sears (49.8 percent to 43.3 percent). Meanwhile, the latest Insider Advantage survey<\/a> of 800 likely voters (questioned between November 2 and 3) has Spanberger at 50 percent and Earle-Sears at 40 percent. There is a +\/- 3.46 percentage point margin of error.<\/p>\n

Research Co.\u2019s poll (November 2 and 3 among 450 likely voters) shows Spanberger with a lead of 54 percent over Winsome Earle-Sears\u2019s 46 percent. There is a =\/- 4.6 percent margin of error.<\/p>\n

What People Are Saying<\/p>\n

Statistician Nate Silver, founder of FiveThirtyEight (538), said<\/a> about the race in New Jersey: “A close race could just come down to Sherrill being part of an unpopular two-time incumbent party. That\u2019s why it\u2019s going to be hard to infer much from this election, either about the state of New Jersey or the broader political environment.”<\/p>\n

Democratic candidate Zohran Mamdani, outside New York City Hall\u00a0on Monday:\u00a0\u201cI continue to be confident about our chances heading into Election Day tomorrow. But I will not allow myself or let this movement to become complacent.\u201d<\/p>\n

What Happens Next<\/p>\n

Polling places in New York, New Jersey and Virginia are open for in-person voting, with initial results expected to emerge after polls close Tuesday evening.<\/p>\n

High mail-in and early voting rates add potential uncertainty\u2014final outcomes may not be clear until late Tuesday or Wednesday.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Newsweek has rounded up what the latest polls are saying about the elections in New York, New Jersey…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":28153,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[6],"tags":[2659,17612,1066,9,11,10,7782,418],"class_list":["post-28152","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-new-york","tag-election","tag-election-polls","tag-new-jersey","tag-new-york","tag-new-york-headlines","tag-new-york-news","tag-polls","tag-virginia"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-ny\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/28152","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-ny\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-ny\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-ny\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-ny\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=28152"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-ny\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/28152\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-ny\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/28153"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-ny\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=28152"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-ny\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=28152"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-ny\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=28152"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}