{"id":283703,"date":"2026-07-01T16:08:19","date_gmt":"2026-07-01T16:08:19","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-ny\/283703\/"},"modified":"2026-07-01T16:08:19","modified_gmt":"2026-07-01T16:08:19","slug":"control-of-the-senate-is-up-for-grabs-times-siena-polls-find","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-ny\/283703\/","title":{"rendered":"Control of the Senate Is Up for Grabs, Times\/Siena Polls Find"},"content":{"rendered":"

Democrats face an uphill battle to win control of the Senate but have pulled within striking distance of enough Republican-held seats to put the majority in play this fall, according to new New York Times\/Siena polls in six Senate battleground states.<\/a><\/p>\n

Republicans are hampered by the unpopularity of President Trump and his diminished standing on the economy, while most of the Democratic candidates are so far running ahead of their party\u2019s own struggling brand, the polls show.<\/p>\n

Winning the Senate remains a stiff challenge for Democrats. Republicans hold 53 seats, meaning that Democrats would need to flip at least four seats while defending all of their own vulnerable ones.<\/p>\n

The Times\/Siena polls looked at the six states that are considered to be the Democratic Party\u2019s best shots at flipping Republican-held seats: Alaska, Iowa, Maine, North Carolina, Ohio and Texas. The surveys found that while all six states are close enough to be competitive, if the election were held today Republicans would be favored in enough states to keep control of the Senate.<\/p>\n

But the new polls suggest that Democrats have a path.<\/p>\n

Mr. Trump carried five of the states in 2024, and if all six states were considered together he won them by an average of eight percentage points. In the polls, the average of the Senate races in those six states was a tie, with 47 percent for both Republicans and Democrats. The shift shows how far the political environment has tilted in the Democrats\u2019 direction ahead of the midterm elections.<\/p>\n

The Times\/Siena polls show Democrats with a slim edge in Maine<\/a> and a more substantial lead in North Carolina. Republican candidates lead narrowly in three states: Alaska, Iowa and Ohio. Texas is tied<\/a>.<\/p>\n

[See all publicly released polls in Alaska<\/a>, Iowa<\/a>, Maine<\/a>, Ohio<\/a>, North Carolina<\/a> and Texas<\/a>.]<\/p>\n

Voters across all six battlegrounds were thoroughly frustrated by rising prices \u2014 and many blamed Mr. Trump. Only 36 percent of voters approved of his handling of cost-of-living issues, including an abysmal 24 percent among independent voters.<\/p>\n

\u201cI\u2019m confronted with it every day,\u201d said Christian Privett, a 57-year-old retired independent voter, from Durham, N.C. about rising costs. \u201cIt\u2019s insane. A box of cereal, it\u2019s, like, almost $8 today.\u201d<\/p>\n

In North Carolina, Roy Cooper, the Democratic former two-term governor, has opened a seven-point lead over Michael Whatley, a former Republican National Committee chairman, who was the least well known of any of the candidates in any of the states. Democrats last won a Senate race in the state nearly two decades ago, in 2008.<\/p>\n

Mr. Privett, who described himself as a former Republican \u201cset adrift without a party,\u201d said he planned to vote for Mr. Cooper. \u201cI just want to get back to that, where you don\u2019t wake up every morning wondering what is going to come out of a politician\u2019s mouth to roil the markets or to start a protest or to cause upset,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n

In recent years, both parties have struggled to win Senate contests in states that have voted for the other party in presidential elections. Democrats hold zero seats in states that Mr. Trump has won all three times he has been on the ballot \u2014 a group that includes all of the states in the new round of Times\/Siena polls except for Maine. Republicans are targeting several Democratic-held states, including two that Mr. Trump won in 2024, Georgia and Michigan.<\/p>\n

[Republicans\u2019 home-field edge for the Senate seems to be just enough for now, writes Nate Cohn<\/a>.]<\/p>\n

In the poll, Mr. Trump\u2019s average overall approval rating stood at 43 percent, with 54 percent disapproving.<\/p>\n

Economic frustrations appear to have at least cracked open the door of opportunity for Democrats in 2026.<\/p>\n

Voters in each state said the most important issues to them \u2014 by far \u2014 were jobs, the economy, inflation and the cost of living. And on those measures, Mr. Trump\u2019s image is deeply damaged.<\/p>\n

By a 14-percentage point margin, voters in these Senate battlegrounds said that Mr. Trump\u2019s policies have hurt more than helped.<\/p>\n

The view among crucial independent voters was even bleaker: 52 percent said Mr. Trump\u2019s policies had hurt, while only 22 percent said they had helped.<\/p>\n

Democrats were up by 14 percentage points among voters who said the economy was the most important issue to them. And they are winning 63 percent of the vote among those who said the economy is fair or poor, while Republicans are winning 75 percent of those who said the economy is excellent or good.<\/p>\n

The fundamental problem for Republicans: More voters think the economy is bad than good.<\/p>\n

Mr. Trump\u2019s decision to go to war with Iran, which sharply drove up gas prices, was also unpopular. Only 39 percent of voters approved of his handling of the war, and only 33 percent approved of his management of gas prices. Mr. Trump\u2019s strongest issue was immigration.<\/p>\n

The national political environment is hurting Republicans. <\/p>\n

In all six states, voters were less likely to describe their Democratic candidate as \u201ctoo far to the left\u201d than they were to describe the Democratic Party itself, the polls show.<\/p>\n

The gap was most striking in Iowa, where 57 percent of voters said the Democratic Party was too far left but only 25 percent said the same about the Democratic Senate nominee, Josh Turek, a state lawmaker who won two gold medals<\/a> for wheelchair basketball at the Paralympics.<\/p>\n

Breydon Major, an Iowa Democrat, said he felt his party was sometimes too far to the left on the issue of immigration.<\/p>\n

\u201cObviously, you know, there should be a process for letting people in. But I feel like it should be more fair, but not just, like, a completely open floodgate,\u201d said Mr. Major, a 24-year-old production supervisor at an events center who lives in Council Bluffs.<\/p>\n

But he did not have such reservations with Mr. Turek, saying he planned to vote for him in the general election. \u201cHe\u2019s far enough on the left that he aligns with a lot of my standards, but not too far to the left that it seems a bit extreme,\u201d said Mr. Major.<\/p>\n

Mr. Turek, who had benefited from nearly $10 million in positive ads from a veterans group during the primary, is running slightly behind Representative Ashley Hinson, a Republican who was also seen favorably by voters.<\/p>\n

For now, Democrats have an enthusiasm edge: 93 percent of Democrats said they were very likely or almost certain to vote compared with 87 percent of Republicans, across the six states.<\/p>\n

That excitement appears to be helping Democrats blunt natural Republican advantages in states like Iowa, Ohio, Alaska and Texas that have trended Republican in recent years \u2014 and which voted for Mr. Trump in 2024 by double-digit percentages. In all four of those states, the Democratic candidate was outperforming the share of voters who said they actually wanted Democrats in charge of the Senate.<\/p>\n

In Alaska, for instance, voters preferred a Republican-controlled Senate by eight percentage points. But Mary Peltola, a Democratic former congresswoman who was the first Native Alaskan elected to Congress, trailed Senator Dan Sullivan, the Republican incumbent, by only two points.<\/p>\n

Ms. Peltola garnered a particularly positive impression from voters, with 65 percent saying she has good character and 62 percent the right kind of morals.<\/p>\n

Andrea Dewees, 49, is an independent voter in Juneau, Alaska, who said she values fiscal conservatism but said that she planned to vote for Ms. Peltola because thinks she is \u201cdown to earth\u201d and will root out corruption.<\/p>\n

\u201cShe\u2019s not, like, swanky, or trying to make herself rich,\u201d said Ms. Dewees, a humanities professor.<\/p>\n

Ms. Peltola was not an aberration. In five of the six states, the Democratic candidate had a higher favorable rating than their Republican rival.<\/p>\n

The lone Democratic exception was Graham Platner, an oyster farmer and combat veteran in Maine who has been engulfed in controversies including old Reddit posts, whether he knew about the Nazi symbolism of one of his tattoos and his treatment of women.<\/p>\n

More voters view him unfavorably than favorably, and he had a worse rating than his Republican rival, Senator Susan Collins.<\/p>\n

In the more Republican states, voters were torn between frustrations with Mr. Trump and loyalty to the Republican Party \u2014 and the preference to keep the G.O.P. in power.<\/p>\n

\u201cHe made a lot of promises that he didn\u2019t keep, you know, such as the economy booming, and no new wars was a huge one,\u201d said Samuel Queen, a 23-year-old Republican from outside Springfield, Ohio. But Mr. Queen, who owns a small truck detailing business, said he is still planning to back Senator Jon Husted, the Republican, this fall: \u201cYou know, I would still go Husted every time.\u201d<\/p>\n

The results in Ohio vividly reveal the extent of the climb facing Democrats. Sherrod Brown, a former Democratic senator who was ousted by voters in 2024, is attempting to make a comeback against Mr. Husted, the Republican who was appointed to replace Vice President JD Vance.<\/p>\n

Mr. Husted led Mr. Brown in the poll 50 percent to 47 percent.<\/p>\n

That margin matches the outcome of Mr. Brown\u2019s last race, when he lost 50.1 percent to 46.5 percent.<\/p>\n

In other words, despite the changing political environment, the poll shows Mr. Brown in the same place he was two years ago.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Democrats face an uphill battle to win control of the Senate but have pulled within striking distance of…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":283704,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[6],"tags":[11601,98889,52810,82364,52587,651,1452,416,5348,89518,98888,5351,98885,5315,43459,99185,46937,9,11,10,49,51,50,980,1064,1758,97306,95540,1671,1707,5285,99183,855,99186,82365,1777,1069,98884,84272,99184],"class_list":["post-283703","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-new-york","tag-alaska","tag-ashley-1983","tag-brown","tag-collins","tag-cooper","tag-democratic-party","tag-donald-j","tag-elections","tag-georgia","tag-graham","tag-hinson","tag-iowa","tag-josh-1979","tag-maine","tag-mary","tag-michael-1968","tag-midterm-elections-2026","tag-new-york","tag-new-york-headlines","tag-new-york-news","tag-new-york-state","tag-new-york-state-headlines","tag-new-york-state-news","tag-new-york-times","tag-north-carolina","tag-ohio","tag-peltola","tag-platner","tag-politics-and-government","tag-polls-and-public-opinion","tag-republican-party","tag-roy-a","tag-senate","tag-sherrod","tag-susan-m","tag-texas","tag-trump","tag-turek","tag-two-thousand-twenty-six","tag-whatley"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-ny\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/283703","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-ny\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-ny\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-ny\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-ny\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=283703"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-ny\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/283703\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-ny\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/283704"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-ny\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=283703"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-ny\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=283703"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-ny\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=283703"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}