{"id":286309,"date":"2026-07-03T23:10:11","date_gmt":"2026-07-03T23:10:11","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-ny\/286309\/"},"modified":"2026-07-03T23:10:11","modified_gmt":"2026-07-03T23:10:11","slug":"mlb-best-bets-top-home-run-props-for-friday-7-3-26","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-ny\/286309\/","title":{"rendered":"MLB Best Bets: Top home run props for Friday 7\/3\/26"},"content":{"rendered":"<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Home runs. Long balls. Bleacher reachers. Whatever you want to call them, people love watching and betting on home run props during baseball games. So much so, we\u2019ve got a whole article dedicated to just that.<\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Here are my top three home run prop picks on DraftKings Sportsbook for Friday\u2019s slate, as we head into the weekend: Cody Bellinger, Gunnar Henderson and Griffin Conine.<\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Let\u2019s break them down.<\/p>\n<p>Best MLB Home Run Bets Today<\/p>\n<p>Best MLB Home Run Bets TodayOddsWhy I Like the PickCody Bellinger+353Bellinger is slashing .343\/.423\/.635 at home in 2026 with a 190 wRC+ and eight of the 11 home runs he\u2019s hit. He\u2019s simply a monster when he sees that short porch in right field. Meanwhile, Mike Paredes combines a first percentile strikeout rate (11.8%) with a first percentile opponent hard hit rate (51.8%).Gunnar Henderson+310Henderson has still managed to hit for power in a disappointing campaign, as he\u2019s already one home run away from matching his total from all of last season (17). Maybe that long ball will come tonight against Brady Singer. The RHP has been haunted by opposing LHBs, as those within the split have combined to smash 2.47 home runs per nine.Griffin Conine+417It\u2019s only 61 total plate appearances at the MLB level, yet Conine has managed a .231 ISO and a .413 expected wOBA, all mostly made possible by a massive 13.9% barrel rate. Now he\u2019ll get to travel to Sutter Health Park to take on Jack Perkins. The RHP is conceding 1.96 long balls per nine as a starter in 2026.<\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">In-depth analysis below.<\/p>\n<p>Top MLB Home Run Props Today<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/sportsbook.draftkings.com\/event\/min-twins-%2540-ny-yankees\/34346707?category=all-odds&amp;subcategory=batter\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener nofollow\">Cody Bellinger 1+ Home Run (+353)<\/a><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">If there\u2019s been a No. 1 rule for Bellinger in this market in his time with the Yankees, it\u2019s that you back the former NL MVP when he\u2019s playing in the Bronx. Just take a quick glance at his splits so far in 2026. Bellinger is slashing .343\/.423\/.635 within the split with a 190 wRC+ and eight of the 11 home runs he\u2019s hit. He\u2019s simply a monster when he sees that short porch in right field. Yankee Stadium won\u2019t be so welcoming to Mike Paredes, however, as the Twins rookie will make his debut at the famous venue. While Paredes has mostly survived his 25.1 innings at the MLB level, the numbers under the hood are gaudy. In fact, the right-hander combines a first percentile strikeout rate (11.8%) with a first percentile opponent hard hit rate (51.8%). That\u2019s not going to work for very long. Take advantage while you can.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/sportsbook.draftkings.com\/event\/bal-orioles-%2540-cin-reds\/34346708?category=all-odds&amp;subcategory=batter\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener nofollow\">Gunnar Henderson 1+ Home Run (+310)<\/a><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">We are in the midst of yet another underwhelming campaign for Henderson, as the shortstop enters the day hitting .227 with a 99 wRC+ across his first 399 plate appearances of 2026. That said, Henderson has still managed to hit for power, as he\u2019s already one home run away from matching his total from all of last season (17). Maybe that long ball will come tonight against Brady Singer \u2014 at least, that\u2019s what the stats overwhelmingly suggest. It\u2019s just been a year from Hell for the veteran right-hander. Singer\u2019s fastball velocity continues to drop, and that\u2019s translated into allowing fifth percentile opponent average exit velocity (91.3) and a ninth percentile opponent barrel rate (11.3%). Singer\u2019s also specifically been haunted by opposing LHBs, as those within the split have combined to smash 2.47 home runs per nine in the 29-year-old\u2019s 16 outings. Woof.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/sportsbook.draftkings.com\/event\/mia-marlins-%2540-athletics\/34346714?category=all-odds&amp;subcategory=batter\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener nofollow\">Griffin Conine 1+ Home Run (+417)<\/a><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">We\u2019re not dealing with the largest samples in the world, but if you\u2019ll allow me to dumb things down for a moment, let me say that Griffin Conine is hitting the crap out of the ball when he\u2019s been available so far in 2026. It\u2019s only 61 total plate appearances at the MLB level, yet Conine has managed a .231 ISO and a .413 expected wOBA, all mostly made possible by a massive 13.9% barrel rate. Now he\u2019ll get to travel to Sutter Health Park to take on the A\u2019s. Everyone likes hitting at Sutter Health Park. Conversely, no one like pitching there. Just ask Jack Perkins, who has surrendered five of his six long balls this season in Sacramento. Perkins is also currently making the transition to the Athletics\u2019 rotation, and that\u2019s not exactly gone exceedingly well. Perkins as a reliever allowed 0.32 opponent long balls per nine with a 2.61 FIP. As a starter? The RHP is conceding 1.96 long balls per nine. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Home runs. Long balls. Bleacher reachers. Whatever you want to call them, people love watching and betting on&hellip;\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":286310,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[38],"tags":[128,9,24,63,12482,129,131,130],"class_list":["post-286309","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-the-bronx","tag-bronx","tag-new-york","tag-new-york-city","tag-nyc","tag-rail","tag-the-bronx","tag-the-bronx-headlines","tag-the-bronx-news"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-ny\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/286309","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-ny\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-ny\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-ny\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-ny\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=286309"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-ny\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/286309\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-ny\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/286310"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-ny\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=286309"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-ny\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=286309"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-ny\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=286309"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}