I worry in particular that we are undermining the tripartite approach that has made the United States dominant, starting with heavy investments in human capital such as education. The United States was a world leader in mass education in the 19th and 20th centuries, but we now rank ninth in reading, 16th in science and 34th in math, according to the PISA global ranking<\/a> of student test scores.<\/p>\n Human capital is also about our health and well-being, and that likewise is discouraging: The United States now ranks 61st in life expectancy<\/a> globally, according to the World Bank.<\/p>\n A second prong of America\u2019s growth path was the welcome we (inconsistently and imperfectly) at times offered immigrants. When my father was on a ship in New York Harbor, arriving as a refugee in 1952, a Boston woman next to him on the deck welcomed him as a \u201cyoung American<\/a>.\u201d He was awed that he \u2014 a refugee who couldn\u2019t even speak English \u2014 was being hailed as an American before he even set foot on American soil.<\/p>\n For now, that welcome mat has mostly been removed (except perhaps for white \u201crefugees\u201d from South Africa). The number of foreign graduate students studying at American universities last fall fell 12 percent<\/a> from the year before, and further declines are expected.<\/p>\n The third element of America\u2019s growth formula \u2014 a reliance on free markets \u2014 remains largely intact, at least by international standards. But inequality appears to have soared<\/a> since 1980, and there\u2019s evidence<\/a> that while some inequality is necessary for growth, too much dampens it. The dollar remains overwhelmingly the world\u2019s currency but has weakened<\/a>, and its supremacy is being challenged at the edges<\/a>.<\/p>\n And it\u2019s more than that.<\/p>\n \u201cWhat do we mean by the Revolution?\u201d John Adams asked in an 1815 letter to Thomas Jefferson. He answered his own question, saying that the revolution was not a war but rather something that unfolded \u201cin the minds of the people.\u201d<\/p>\n Yes! True, our animating ideas \u2014 of equality, of opportunity, of openness to immigration \u2014 were in part rhetorical flourishes, for they don\u2019t explain Jim Crow, the Chinese Exclusion Acts or tight curbs on Jewish immigration. But these ideas were aspirational, and over the centuries they inspired real progress. Now I fear we\u2019ve retreated even from the aspirations.<\/p>\n As I see it, we\u2019ve lost two wars in the past half-dozen years \u2014 one against the Afghan Taliban and one against Iran just this year \u2014 not to mention last year losing a trade war with China. We may be retreating from NATO and from efforts to buttress Taiwan.<\/p>\n Our position \u2014 divided at home and weakening abroad \u2014 is reminiscent of the decline of great powers in the past, not just the Abbasids and Ghaznavids but also Spain in 1588 and Britain in the late 19th century.<\/p>\n Still, for all the uncertainties about our trajectory, I think I\u2019m a bit more optimistic than many of my fellow Americans.<\/p>\n Maybe that\u2019s because my wife and I were in small-town America \u2014 Ashland, Ore., for a theater festival<\/a> \u2014 on July 4. Ashland\u2019s annual Independence Day parade was an uplifting celebration that included free American flags and Popsicles, a military flyover and parade participants calling for universal health care and welcoming immigrants. Far from the toxicity of Washington, D.C., it captured all the contradictions and beauty of our country.<\/p>\n My very guarded optimism about America\u2019s long-run prospects is based on three factors:<\/p>\n First, we appear to have maintained an edge (partly by importing scientists) in technology, which since the dawn of the Industrial Revolution has been a driver of progress and global leadership. Then it was the steam engine and spinning jenny. Now it is artificial intelligence, materials science and biotechnology. And our technological sophistication pairs well with the world\u2019s deepest financial markets, with American stocks accounting for roughly two-thirds<\/a> of global stock value, compared with less than 30 percent in 1988.<\/p>\n Second, other nations have their own problems. Our principal competitor for now is China, which has enormous strengths but also is aging fast and declining in population and is led by an aging dictator.<\/p>\n Third, prophecies of American decline are nothing new. \u201cMy hopes of the long continuance of this Union are extinct,\u201d John Quincy Adams wrote in 1834, during a crisis in South Carolina. In the 1980s and \u201990s, when I was a foreign correspondent in Asia, it was \u201cJapan as No. 1<\/a>,\u201d and in the 2000s experts debated in which year China\u2019s economy would surpass America\u2019s. Now some believe that may never happen. And the United States has not seen the collapse of population growth that many other industrial countries have. Our more youthful population, partly because of immigration, confers vitality and vigor.<\/p>\n So I don\u2019t believe that our decline is inevitable. But much will depend on whether we have the wisdom to revert to our proven strategy of investing in human capital, welcoming immigrants and embracing free markets against a backdrop of some equality.<\/p>\n Onward to the 500th!<\/p>\n
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