The continued cycle of attacks between Iran and the United States in the Persian Gulf posed fresh risks to ships seeking to navigate the Strait of Hormuz, testing markets on Sunday.<\/p>\n
Brent crude, the international oil benchmark, rose more than 4 percent shortly after markets opened on Sunday, to $79 a barrel. That is up 9 percent from its prewar price.<\/p>\n
Daily ship traffic through the strait, which normally carries a fifth of the world\u2019s oil, recently dropped to the lowest level in weeks, with the latest data showing only 22 ships braving the passage on Thursday, according to Kpler, a maritime data firm. More than 130 vessels passed through daily before the war.<\/p>\n
In the latest round of attacks over the weekend, the U.S. military said it had hit about 140 targets in Iran after Tehran attacked a container ship in the strait. Iran\u2019s military said it had responded by firing at U.S. targets in the region.<\/p>\n
Amena Bakr, head of Middle East research at Kpler, said any assurance that commercial vessels had gained with the ability to pass through the Strait of Hormuz over the past few weeks is gone.<\/p>\n
\u201cThat confidence eroded very, very quickly,\u201d Ms. Bakr said. \u201cWe\u2019re back to square one when it comes to that situation.\u201d<\/p>\n
Brent crude oil, the international benchmark, closed last week near $76 per barrel, about 5 percent higher than prewar levels. Although oil prices are far below the peak of nearly $120 a barrel during the worst of the war, the market moves that follow each round of strikes have shown Iran\u2019s capacity to move energy prices.<\/p>\n
A recovery in shipping traffic after the United States and Iran signed a preliminary cease-fire agreement last month had led to a \u201csharp\u201d increase in global oil supplies, the International Energy Agency said in a report<\/a> released on Friday. Oil exports from the Persian Gulf jumped by 6.5 million barrels per day in June, to around 16 million barrels per day, helping to bring down prices.<\/p>\n Still, last month\u2019s export pace was only about two-thirds of prewar levels. A more comprehensive recovery is \u201ccontingent on a swift de-escalation of renewed hostilities,\u201d the I.E.A. said.<\/p>\n If ships become more wary of plying the strait after recent attacks, the talk among economists may turn from forecasts of an impending oil glut to worries about \u201cdemand destruction<\/a>\u201d as high energy prices squeeze businesses and consumers. The average price of a gallon of gasoline in the United States remains 30 percent higher than before the war. It was $3.88 a gallon on Sunday, up from $3.80 a gallon a week earlier, according to the AAA motor club.<\/p>\n Ms. Bakr said the oil markets appear to have grown accustomed to volatility and on-again, off-again hostilities between the United States and Iran. She said oil prices are more likely to fall at any hint of renewed negotiations toward peace than they are to surge with new strikes.<\/p>\n \u201cThe market has adjusted to this new normal,\u201d Ms. Bakr said, adding, \u201cThe movement of prices hasn\u2019t really reflected the reality of the situation or the level of geopolitical risk.\u201d<\/p>\n Iran insists that its waters are the only viable route through the Strait of Hormuz for commercial vessels. Ships instead taking a route close to Oman\u2019s coastline, guided and protected by the U.S. military, have drawn Tehran\u2019s wrath. The vessel attacked this weekend was in Omani waters, as were the ships hit last week, setting off the latest cycle of tit-for-tat retaliation.<\/p>\n