While the autonomous vehicle company Waymo has recently boasted<\/a> a lower crash rate than human drivers, citing a new analysis<\/a> by the Insurance Institute for Highway Safety, researchers suggest New York City needs its own data before autonomous vehicles arrive at scale.<\/p>\n \u201cThere\u2019s a mantra going around that autonomous vehicles are more than 90% safer than human driven cars,\u201d said Sam Schwartz, transportation engineer, former NYC traffic commissioner, and founder of the program that bears his name, in a press release<\/a>. \u201cThere is no solid evidence as of yet, to make such a claim compared to the for-hire vehicles already serving this city. We find that NYC taxi and Uber\/Lyft drivers may in fact be safer per mile.\u201d<\/p>\n The study found Waymo\u2019s national rate of crashes causing serious injury or death was about 1.5 times higher per mile than New York City\u2019s for-hire fleet, and more than three times higher in the Bay Area specifically.<\/p>\n The authors caution that Waymo\u2019s limited mileage and gaps in available data make it hard to say definitively that robotaxis are more or less safe than professional drivers. But they argued the numbers \u201cwarrant significant caution and further scrutiny\u201d rather than validating the safety case robotaxi companies are making.<\/p>\n On congestion, the study calculates a \u201cvehicle miles traveled multiplier,\u201d or total miles driven per mile actually carrying a passenger. Waymo\u2019s is 1.71 in California, compared with 1.49 for New York\u2019s existing high-volume for-hire fleet. That\u2019s a roughly 15% efficiency gap driven by \u201cdeadheading,\u201d or empty miles spent waiting for or driving to the next fare.<\/p>\n And this gap could widen further in New York.<\/p>\n In California, Waymos can park during about 58% of that idle time. But the study says that\u2019s unrealistic in a city with New York\u2019s curb-space scarcity. Modeled at just 25% park time instead of 58%, the report estimates roughly 62,000 additional vehicle miles traveled per day.<\/p>\n Waymo pushed back<\/a> in response to the study. A company spokesperson said that while Waymo can\u2019t say with certainty what its safety record would look like in New York specifically, the data so far makes the company \u201chopeful\u201d its technology can \u201chelp make New York City\u2019s roads safer.\u201d<\/p>\n Is Waymo safer than the average human driver?<\/p>\n Waymo, which is also battling reports of its cars dying in the middle of roads<\/a> and racking up thousands in fines for illegal parking<\/a>, has touted a new study<\/a> from the Insurance Institute for Highway Safety showing a lower crash rate than human drivers. <\/p>\n The nonprofit insurance research group found Waymo vehicles had a 68% lower crash rate per vehicle mile traveled than human drivers overall, across the four cities where Waymo has operated long enough to study: San Francisco, Phoenix, Los Angeles and Austin.<\/p>\n The Insurance Institute for Highway Safety researchers added a caveat to their findings, noting<\/a> that companies are required to report self-driving car crashes to federal and California regulators. But they don\u2019t have to report the number of miles their cars log or how much of that driving happens in autonomous mode \u2014 making it hard to know how common self-driving car crashes actually are. Waymo is the only company that publishes its mileage data, which is why it was the only one studied.<\/p>\n After stripping out duplicate reports and crashes that likely wouldn\u2019t have been reported if a human were driving, researchers found only 22% of the 736 autonomous-vehicle crashes they reviewed were likely \u201cpolice-reportable\u201d \u2014 a small dataset for sweeping safety claims.<\/p>\n \u201cThose are encouraging signs for the future of driverless vehicles,\u201d Eric Teoh, the study\u2019s lead author, said<\/a> in a press release. He added that data collection needs to improve \u201cso that we can ensure that level of safety continues as these technologies become more prevalent.\u201d<\/p>\n Two crashes this week \u2014 one of which left a woman critically injured in Los Angeles<\/a>, and another which sent a Waymo vehicle up in flames in Atlanta<\/a> \u2014 may seem to discredit Waymo\u2019s safety claims. But the circumstances are more tangled than \u201cWaymo crash\u201d headlines suggest.<\/p>\n In Los Angeles\u2019 Pico-Union neighborhood on July 26, a Waymo was struck by a sedan that had first hit a pedestrian pushing a cart outside a crosswalk, then swerved into oncoming traffic and into the Waymo, according to police<\/a> and a Waymo spokesperson<\/a>. A woman was critically injured, but local outlets have not attributed fault to the Waymo\u2019s driving system.<\/p>\n In Atlanta that same night, a Jeep rear-ended a Waymo that was stopped waiting to turn left on Cheshire Bridge Road. The Jeep itself caught fire, which then spread to the Waymo, per Waymo and Atlanta Fire Rescue<\/a>. No one was riding in the Waymo. Two people in the Jeep were evaluated for injuries, including burns, but declined transport to a hospital. The fire did prompt questions from witnesses and Atlanta Fire Rescue<\/a> about how riders could exit a burning Waymo, and about whether Waymo needs updated safety training for battery-related emergencies.<\/p>\n Rolling back the robotaxi fervor?<\/p>\n Even as Waymo and other robotaxi competitors plan to expand services to additional markets, from Houston<\/a> to Munich<\/a>, Tesla has struck a notably more cautious tone on its robotaxi ambitions during its July 22 earnings call<\/a>.<\/p>\n A year earlier, CEO Elon Musk had predicted<\/a> the robotaxi network would expand at a \u201chyper-exponential rate\u201d and reach half the U.S. population by the end of 2025. On the call, Musk and other executives fielded pointed questions about a rollout that has fallen well short of that timeline. <\/p>\n Since launching a small pilot with safety monitors in Austin in June 2025, Tesla has expanded to only a handful<\/a> of Texas and Florida cities, often in outlying, less-trafficked areas. The company listed expansions in Dallas, Houston, Miami, Tampa and Orlando.<\/p>\n Musk framed the slower pace as deliberate, saying<\/a>, \u201cIf we injure even one person, it will be worldwide news and regulators will immediately clamp down on our activities.\u201d<\/p>\n Tesla reported 2.5 million paying-customer robotaxi miles to date, including 380,000 without an in-vehicle safety monitor \u2014 a fraction of the more than 220 million autonomous miles Waymo had logged <\/a>through the end of March. <\/p>\n
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