{"id":334534,"date":"2026-09-01T04:54:19","date_gmt":"2026-09-01T04:54:19","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-ny\/334534\/"},"modified":"2026-09-01T04:54:19","modified_gmt":"2026-09-01T04:54:19","slug":"very-strong-el-nino-could-impact-nyc-weather-in-coming-weeks-months","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-ny\/334534\/","title":{"rendered":"\u2018Very strong\u2019 El Ni\u00f1o\u2019 could impact NYC weather in coming weeks, months"},"content":{"rendered":"

STATEN ISLAND, N.Y. \u2014 Meteorologists in the United States are confident that a \u201cvery strong\u201d El Ni\u00f1o is developing, which could impact the Northeast in the fall and winter of 2026-27.<\/p>\n

El Ni\u00f1o is a phenomenon caused by trade winds weakening over the tropical Pacific Ocean, which leads to warmer ocean waters. The jet stream typically extends eastward and shifts southward, serving as a river of air and carrying more moisture across the southern United States, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration\u2019s Climate Prediction Center<\/a>.<\/p>\n

The Climate Prediction Center predicts that the odds of a \u2018very strong\u2019 El Ni\u00f1o in the coming months are over 90%. The stronger an El Ni\u00f1o, the greater the chance it will affect North America in the late fall and winter period, experts say. <\/p>\n

The phenomenon could mean heavy precipitation, warmer temperatures and the chance \u2014 though less likely due to warmer temperatures \u2014 of more snow. <\/p>\n

New York currently faces a roughly 50% to 60% chance of seeing higher than average precipitation between December and February, while its chance of higher than average temperatures during the same period are about 40% to 50%, according to CNN Weather<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Possible \u2018Super El Ni\u00f1o\u2019 by fall<\/p>\n

Senior meteorologist Paul Pastelok, lead long-range forecaster for AccuWeather<\/a>, said he expects the equatorial Pacific will warm even more with this El Ni\u00f1o, which could mean \u201csuper El Ni\u00f1o\u201d status by this fall. <\/p>\n

Rain will likely be more prominent as a result of the weather phenomenon, while some stronger El Ni\u00f1os of the past have produced significant snow events in the past, Pastelok said.<\/p>\n

\"RainA strong El Ni\u00f1o is forecast to impact U.S. weather for the fall and winter of 2026-27. This photo from Jan. 10, 2024, shows flooding on Arthur Kill Road near Getz Avenue.(Advance\/SILive.com | Jan Somma-Hammel)<\/p>\n

\u201cA lot of times with El Ni\u00f1os we don\u2019t have a lot of Arctic air masses or cold air masses and so the timing could be off,\u201d said Pastelok. \u201cAnd I wouldn\u2019t be surprised that, you know, here in the Northeast there could be several rain events in the December time period rather than snow events.\u201d<\/p>\n

Forecasters eyeing \u2018historic\u2019 weather system<\/p>\n

During an Aug. 13 El Ni\u00f1o\/Southern Oscillation diagnostic discussion<\/a>, the National Weather Service\u2019s Climate Prediction Center said there is a 69% chance that between October and December there will be a \u201chistoric event that would exceed the strength of previous El Ni\u00f1o events dating back to 1950.\u2033<\/p>\n

As this is going to be a \u201cvery strong El Ni\u00f1o,\u201d it\u2019s believed that there is going to be a powerful and active southern branch of the jet stream, Pastelok said.<\/p>\n

That means that many systems will track from the West across the country, swinging down toward the Gulf Coast and Southeast. Occasionally, those rain systems will find their way northward. <\/p>\n

Impacts could surpass winter months<\/p>\n

As of Monday, AccuWeather believes this El Ni\u00f1o will peak in the late fall or early winter. <\/p>\n

However, Pastelok noted that since El Ni\u00f1o is a \u201cphase\u201d and not a storm, it takes time for the atmosphere to react and balance out. So even if El Ni\u00f1o were to weaken, there is a \u201clag\u201d that will cause El Ni\u00f1o\u2019s impact to be felt for a period of time afterwards.<\/p>\n

\u201cWe could have El Ni\u00f1o affecting us, being that it\u2019s strong, all the way through next summer,\u201d Pastelok said.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"STATEN ISLAND, N.Y. \u2014 Meteorologists in the United States are confident that a \u201cvery strong\u201d El Ni\u00f1o is…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":334535,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[6],"tags":[9,11,10],"class_list":["post-334534","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-new-york","tag-new-york","tag-new-york-headlines","tag-new-york-news"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-ny\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/334534","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-ny\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-ny\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-ny\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-ny\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=334534"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-ny\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/334534\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-ny\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/334535"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-ny\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=334534"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-ny\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=334534"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-ny\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=334534"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}