{"id":354643,"date":"2026-09-23T14:38:10","date_gmt":"2026-09-23T14:38:10","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-ny\/354643\/"},"modified":"2026-09-23T14:38:10","modified_gmt":"2026-09-23T14:38:10","slug":"can-flurry-of-new-york-diplomacy-lead-to-us-iran-diplomatic-breakthrough-us-israel-war-on-iran-news","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-ny\/354643\/","title":{"rendered":"Can flurry of New York diplomacy lead to US-Iran diplomatic breakthrough? | US-Israel war on Iran News"},"content":{"rendered":"

At the colloquium established shortly after the second world war to prevent future wars, United States President Donald Trump did just the inverse: He platformed his unceasing threats against Iran, suggesting almost casually on Tuesday that he could \u201cannihilate<\/a>\u201d the country he has waged war against since February 28.<\/p>\n

But behind closed doors on the sidelines of the United Nations General Assembly (UNGA)<\/a>, a flurry of diplomatic activity concerning the ongoing US-Iran war has also been unfolding, as world leaders gather in New York.<\/p>\n

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The US and Iran held indirect talks<\/a> for three hours on Tuesday. US special envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner met Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, with Trump calling it a \u201cvery good<\/a>\u201d and \u201cvery productive\u201d meeting. Trump also met Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) leaders<\/a> that day, with senior officials from the region mulling a Qatari proposal for a common security framework involving Iran and the Gulf states.<\/p>\n

Meanwhile, Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian arrived in New York early on Wednesday \u2013 the first time a leader whose country is at war with the US has set foot on US soil to address the gathering. And Chinese President Xi Jinping will skirt New York to instead meet Trump one-on-one<\/a> in Washington, DC \u2013 his first state visit to the US in just less than a decade. Xi lands on Wednesday evening.<\/p>\n

All these separate diplomatic initiatives, analysts tell Al Jazeera, are parts of a push to bring Iran and the US back to the negotiating table. According to Al Jazeera\u2019s correspondent in Tehran, Tohid Asadi, Araghchi\u2019s meeting with Witkoff and Kushner was to convey Tehran\u2019s latest set of conditions<\/a> to end the war<\/a>, following the collapse of the June 60-day memorandum of understanding (MoU)<\/a> finalised in Islamabad, Pakistan.<\/p>\n

But analysts say expecting an actual deal to emerge this week from the diplomatic meetings in the US would be unrealistic. Multiple actors and mediators in the conflict are testing possible off-ramps, but core disagreements between Washington and Tehran remain unresolved.<\/p>\n

\u201cI am sceptical that a breakthrough deal can emerge this week, but a series of understandings can build confidence for renewed diplomacy,\u201d Sanam Vakil, the director of the Middle East and North Africa Programme at Chatham House, told Al Jazeera.<\/p>\n

Too early for a breakthrough<\/p>\n

Vakil is hesitant to call the current moment ripe for a diplomatic breakthrough \u2013 it is far too early, and there is a history of negotiations failing, she said.<\/p>\n

\u201cBoth sides have been negotiating for over two years and on two occasions, that ended with military conflict and these negotiations continue amid persistent military threats,\u201d she said.<\/p>\n

Iran has long pointed to its previous rounds of diplomatic talks with the US \u2013 in 2025 and again this year \u2013 as evidence that Washington can veer from negotiations to military action. It has cited the 12-day war last June, and the current conflict, which began with joint US-Israeli strikes on Tehran at a time Washington and Tehran were engaged in Oman-mediated dialogue.<\/p>\n

Adel Abdel Ghafar, a senior fellow focusing on the Middle East at the Australian Strategic Policy Institute, said that there appears to be \u201cgenuine\u201d movement towards reigniting negotiations \u2013 but also \u201ca fair amount of posturing\u201d. He referenced Trump\u2019s praise for Tuesday\u2019s indirect Iran-US talks and his pugnacious UNGA speech the same day.<\/p>\n

A breakthrough hinges on whether Iran\u2019s diplomats in New York can actually deliver, he said.<\/p>\n

\u201cAraghchi and Pezeshkian can negotiate, but any deal will need the consent of the [Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps] and the hardliners in charge of the war back home,\u201d Abdel Ghafar told Al Jazeera.<\/p>\n

There are specific indicators to watch for another round of US-Iran contact, the analysts said.<\/p>\n

\u201cThe signs to watch for are another confirmed round of US-Iran talks, agreement on sequencing or reciprocal steps, and language from both sides becoming more specific about implementation rather than simply repeating maximalist demands,\u201d said Vakil.<\/p>\n

Abdel Ghafar added that, against the backdrop of UNGA, signs could include Araghchi or Pezeshkian meeting directly with US officials, in addition to supportive statements from more hardline elements of the Iranian administration back home.<\/p>\n

The appearance of such indicators could lead to a stronger push for such talks when Trump meets Xi, as well as an easing of fighting between the Iran-backed Houthi group and the Saudi-led coalition in Yemen, which has escalated in recent weeks<\/a>, the analyst added.<\/p>\n

The limits of Gulf and Chinese diplomacy<\/p>\n

The analysts agreed that the Gulf states remain crucial in brokering a return to talks because they have channels to both warring sides, as well as a very strong interest in preventing further escalation, having absorbed the cost of the fighting since February. Qatar<\/a>, Oman and other Gulf states have been involved in mediation efforts throughout the conflict.<\/p>\n

\u201cQatar and Oman, in particular, can help translate broad political messages into workable arrangements on issues such as Hormuz and regional security,\u201d said Vakil.<\/p>\n

China, meanwhile, has less capacity or interest to mediate, she argued.<\/p>\n

Beijing, however, could use its economic and political leverage with Tehran \u201cto encourage compromise and give Iran greater confidence that any agreement will not leave it completely isolated\u201d, said Vakil.<\/p>\n

Abdel Ghafar pointed out that China remains Iran\u2019s main customer for its oil, explaining why Beijing has pushed for a return to the June interim deal and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.<\/p>\n

\u201cStill, I think neither can impose a settlement \u2013 it ultimately comes down to Washington and Tehran,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n

Hostilities and Hormuz<\/p>\n

The tit-for-tat rhetoric has resulted in continued deadlock in the conflict, with each side unwilling to relinquish to the other\u2019s demands and appear to admit defeat.<\/p>\n

On Tuesday, following Trump\u2019s remarks on annihilating Iran, Iran\u2019s military warned that it is ready to respond with \u201ccrushing\u201d attacks more severe than earlier in the war.<\/p>\n

\u201cThe main challenge is finding a formula that both governments can present domestically as a negotiated compromise rather than capitulation,\u201d said Vakil.<\/p>\n

The Strait of Hormuz remains a key obstacle.<\/p>\n

\u201cIt\u2019s Iran\u2019s strongest card and the thing Washington most wants back, with oil prices high and midterms approaching,\u201d said Abdel Ghafar.<\/p>\n

\u201cTehran will be reluctant to give it up without firm guarantees in return.\u201d<\/p>\n

Still, he warned that even if Washington and Tehran de-escalate, that does not automatically extend to the Red Sea.<\/p>\n

The wider landscape of regional instability and conflict has created new conditions for Yemen\u2019s unresolved war to flare up once again. The Bab al-Mandeb, now under effective Houthi control, has gained greater significance amid Iran\u2019s effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a vital artery for global oil and gas supplies.<\/p>\n

\u201cCalm in Hormuz won\u2019t necessarily mean calm in Bab al-Mandab,\u201d said Abdel Ghafar.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"At the colloquium established shortly after the second world war to prevent future wars, United States President Donald…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":354644,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[8],"tags":[14670,164,9,12,47251,56,63,65,64,2271,901,2272,76628],"class_list":["post-354643","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-new-york-city","tag-iran","tag-middle-east","tag-new-york","tag-news","tag-news-analysis","tag-ny","tag-nyc","tag-nyc-headlines","tag-nyc-news","tag-united-nations","tag-united-states","tag-us-canada","tag-us-israel-war-on-iran"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-ny\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/354643","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-ny\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-ny\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-ny\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-ny\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=354643"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-ny\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/354643\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-ny\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/354644"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-ny\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=354643"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-ny\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=354643"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-ny\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=354643"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}