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<\/a><\/p>\nWeek 1 (Saints): 204 passing yards, 96.7 passer rating
Week 2 (Bills): 289 passing yards, 130.0 passer rating<\/p>\n
It took a while for things to get going, but Jared Goff and the Lions\u2019 passing offense finally looked like itself in the second half of the Bills game. Is that a legitimate data point or did the Bills play Detroit differently while up two or three scores? It\u2019s a very fair question to ask, and one that probably will keep my confidence in this unit at \u201ccautiously optimistic\u201d until we get more information.<\/p>\n
So far this year, the Lions rank:<\/p>\n
22nd in yards per attempt (6.9)Fifth in passer rating (113.2)Fifth in dropback EPA (0.270)10th in dropback success rate (49.4%)<\/p>\n
I see no reason to believe this can\u2019t be a top-10 passing attack yet again, although there was one significant step back last week: pass protection. Last week, the Bills produced 29 pressures, according to PFF, and four sacks on 42 dropbacks. Detroit now has the 27th ranked pass blocking grade by PFF, although they oddly rank eighth in ESPN\u2019s pass block win rate.<\/p>\n
The good news is that the biggest culprits of last week\u2019s protection breakdowns were backups. Right tackle Larry Borom allowed 11 pressures vs. the Bills, and left guard Ben Bartch wasn\u2019t far behind with six. Both of those players are expected to go back to the bench this week with Blake Miller and Christian Mahogany on track to return.<\/p>\n
Week 1 (Titans): 127 passing yards allowed, 80.2 passer rating Last year, the Jets were an absolutely awful passing defense, ranking in the bottom 10 of most statistical categories, including passer rating allowed (110.9, 32nd), yards per attempt (7.5, 25th), dropback EPA (29th), and DVOA (32nd).<\/p>\n This year is off to a much more promising start, although they\u2019ve done it against a Titans passing offense that was bottom three last year, and against a Packers team in the rain with no offensive line.<\/p>\n Still, the stats are impressive. The Jets pass defense ranks:<\/p>\n Second in yards per attempt (4.7)12th in passer rating (85.8)11th in dropback EPA (-0.051)6th in dropback success rate (39.7%)<\/p>\n The highlight of their pass defense is their pass rush. Led by rookie and second overall pick David Bailey (2.0 sacks, eight pressures), the Jets have produced an 8.5% sack rate on dropbacks (fifth highest), despite the fact that their pressure rate is just 36.6% (16th). They\u2019re selectively aggressive, sporting just a 23.9% blitz rate (23rd), but that jumps to 28.6% on third down (18th).<\/p>\n Their secondary is full of a rag-tag group, but 2025 third-round pick Azareye\u2019h Thomas is playing quite well (77.2 PFF grade, eighth among CBs).<\/p>\n Player to watch: Bailey vs. Miller. Bailey has insane speed to deal with (4.50) and Miller is dealing with a knee injury. Not an ideal matchup for Detroit, but it\u2019ll be a good, early test for both rookies.<\/p>\n Advantage: Lions +1.5. Maybe I\u2019m being too dismissive of the Jets after watching the Packers get run out of their own house against the Falcons, but I\u2019m just not quite buying that significant of a turnaround for the Jets defense. They\u2019ve yet to really be tested, while the Lions passing offense can be trusted after years of consistently top-10 play. Protection should be better this week, which should help Detroit get off to a faster start.<\/p>\n Lions run offense (4th) vs. Jets run defense (1st)<\/p>\n 2025 rankings: Lions run offense (10th) vs. Jets run defense (16th) <\/p>\n Week 1 (Saints): 165 rushing yards, 5.0 YPC I find it a bit odd that the Lions\u2019 run offense DVOA is ranked so high because that isn\u2019t matching any other statistical benchmarks. They currently rank:<\/p>\n 10th in YPC (4.4)15th in rush EPA (-0.133)10th in rush success rate (43.6%)<\/p>\n Obviously last week was a significant step back, but Detroit was harmed by a beat-up offensive line and an abandonment of the game script when they were down 21-0 early in the game. The signs of a revamped rushing game are still there, but I\u2019m still a bit skeptical of whether they\u2019re truly a top-10 unit yet.<\/p>\n There are good signs\u2014they rank 11th in yards before contact per carry and t-fourth in 10+ yard rushes\u2014but there are also discouraging signs, like their third-highest \u201cstuffed\u201d rate (rushes that earn 0 or fewer yards).<\/p>\n Still, Jahmyr Gibbs is the ultimate equalizer, and he currently ranks fifth in rushing yards after contact (131).<\/p>\n Week 1 (Titans): 68 rushing yards allowed, 4.9 YPC Again, it feels like we have very little information to go off of here. The Jets have only allowed 131 rushing yards thus far (fewest), but they\u2019ve also faced the fewest rushing attempts, in just 32. The Packers may have the worst rushing attack in football right now, and the Titans actually ran the ball fairly effectively against the Jets (+0.11 EPA\/rush, sixth-best in Week 1), but only rushed 14 times.<\/p>\n So I\u2019m more inclined to go off of last year\u2019s numbers, which were pretty average:<\/p>\n 21st in yards per carry allowed (4.4)25th in rush EPA (-0.034)17th in success rate (41.4%)<\/p>\n That said, the Jets made some significant offseason moves to improve upon that unit, including trading for 360-pound defensive tackle T\u2019Vondre Sweat and signing veteran linebacker Demario Davis. Both have made a significant and noticeable difference.<\/p>\n Player to watch: Sweat. Amongst interior defenders, Sweat ranks 19th with a 70.3 PFF run defense grade. That\u2019ll be a serious test for Detroit\u2019s up-and-down interior offensive line.<\/p>\n Advantage: Draw. My gut tells me the Lions could get things going again with a healthy offensive line, but there\u2019s just not enough data for me to feel any level of confidence there. Both the Jets and Lions look improved from last year, but there\u2019s enough noise in the early data for me to be skeptical.<\/p>\n Jets pass offense (8th) vs. Lions pass defense (19th)<\/p>\n 2025 rankings: Jets pass offense (31st) vs. Lions pass defense (6th) <\/p>\n Week 1 (Titans): 215 passing yards, 104.0 passer rating The Jets were not just the worst passing offense in football for the 2025 season, it was one of the worst attacks in years. Unfortunately for Lions fans, I\u2019m not sure how much we can look into last year\u2019s data. The Jets made changes at offensive coordinator, quarterback, and added a handful of weapons this offseason, and it\u2019s off to a somewhat promising start.<\/p>\n It begins with Geno Smith, who is coming off a terrible year in Las Vegas, but has provided at least some stability in New York thus far. The Jets passing offense hasn\u2019t been super explosive, but Smith has avoided the negative plays: no turnovers and just four sacks. So far, the Jets passing offense ranks:<\/p>\n 15th in yards per attempt (7.1)15th in passer rating (95.8)Ninth in dropback EPA (0.205)12th in success rate (48.1%)<\/p>\n The biggest key to the Jets\u2019 success has been pass protection. They currently rank first in PFF pass blocking grade (77.4) and 13th in longest time to pressure (2.76). However, they still have the second-highest pressure rate (43.4%) because Smith hold onto the ball for a long time (2.97 seconds, seventh-longest).<\/p>\n The receiving corps is pretty shallow with Garrett Wilson leading the team in catches (11), yards (136) and touchdowns (1). Although Adonai Mitchell (nine catches, 123 yards) is a decent No. 2 who is currently dealing with a finger injury.<\/p>\n Week 1 (Saints): 378 passing yards allowed, 87.6 passer rating Time to face some hard truths. The Lions\u2019 pass defense has been atrocious outside of the first two quarters of the season. Even with an absolutely dominant defensive performance against the Saints in the first half, the Lions pass defense still ranks:<\/p>\n 19th in yards per attempt allowed (7.6)21st in passer rating allowed (99.7)24th in dropback EPA (0.243)28th in dropback success rate (53.3%)<\/p>\n Is it possible these numbers look worse than they should because Josh Allen is an alien and Tyler Shough is really starting to put it together? Of course. But it\u2019s also true that the Lions\u2019 secondary was an absolute mess on Thursday and made Allen\u2019s job far too easy.<\/p>\n Detroit\u2019s PFF coverage grade ranks 26th in the NFL (51.0), and they\u2019re giving up an average of 3.6 yards of separation per target (19th).<\/p>\n If there\u2019s hope, it\u2019s in their pressure packages. Through two weeks, the Lions have the second-most sacks (seven), fifth most pressures (41), and sixth-quickest time to pressure (2.51 seconds). Some is the result of a very aggressive gameplan (38.2% blitz rate, sixth), but they actually still rank pretty high in pressure metrics when not blitzing, too:<\/p>\n 36.4 pressure rate (eighth)2.58 average seconds to pressure (eighth)<\/p>\n Player to watch: Geno Smith. Perhaps the biggest change Smith brings to the Jets offense is his ability to test defenses deep. New York has only five passing plays of 20+ yards (t-22nd), but Smith has an arm and isn\u2019t afraid to uncork it. Meanwhile, the Lions defense has given up 10 passing plays of 20+ yards (second most) and they\u2019ve already allowed five completions of at least 20 air yards.<\/p>\n Advantage: Jets +0.5. I can\u2019t in good faith give the Jets a huge advantage here because their passing offense just isn\u2019t very explosive. But I do expect them to gets some yards underneath and potentially beat the Lions over the top with a big play or two\u2014especially with the Lions down four of their top five safeties.<\/p>\n Jets run offense (13th) vs. Lions run defense (31st)<\/p>\n 2025 rankings: Jets run offense (27th) vs. Lions run defense (19th) <\/p>\n Week 1 (Titans): 152 rushing yards, 3.9 YPC If there was one thing the 2025 Jets could hang their hat on, it was a decent running game with a very good running back in Breece Hall. This year\u2019s unit is off to an inconsistent start. Last week\u2019s performance was certainly concerning for New York\u2014especially after watching the Falcons run all over the Packers on Thursday night. But Hall was awesome in Week 1, rushing for 102 yard and 4.6 YPC.<\/p>\n Overall, the stats are mediocre:<\/p>\n 28th in yards per carry (3.3)25th in rush EPA (-0.238)19th in rush success rate (36.7%)<\/p>\n Despite being a decent pass-protection unit, the Jets\u2019 offensive line hasn\u2019t measured up well in run blocking. New York ranks 25th in adjusted line yards and 24th in yards before contact per rush. However, they do rank seventh in run blocking grade (70.0) and 12th in ESPN\u2019s run block win rate (75%). One big problem is their stuffed rate of 19.7%, the ninth highest in football.<\/p>\n Week 1 (Saints): 91 rushing yards allowed, 3.6 YPC Certainly not a promising start for the Lions\u2019 run defense. While Week 1\u2019s performance looks just fine, it\u2019s worth pointing out the Saints managed just 65 rushing yards and 2.4 YPC against the Ravens last week. Detroit\u2019s performance against the Bills was an unmitigated disaster. Again, you can credit the Bills for having an explosive offense, but they managed just 86 rushing yards in Week 1. It\u2019s not looking great.<\/p>\n 25th in yards per carry allowed (4.8)31st in rush EPA (0.151)26th in success rate (46.2%)<\/p>\n It\u2019s hard to have much confidence in this unit right now given how they finished last year, and how they\u2019ve started this year. If there\u2019s one thing they can hang their hat on, it\u2019s their fifth-ranked yards after contact per rush allowed (1.99) suggesting sound tackling.<\/p>\n Player to watch: Jets left side of the offensive line vs. Lions\u2019 defensive right side. The majority of the Jets\u2019 damage is done behind left tackle Olu Fashanu and left guard Dylan Parham (PFF\u2019s No. 1 run blocking guard). The Lions will need much better contain this week, especially with Smith still mobile.<\/p>\n Advantage: Jets +1. I believe the Jets will have an average-ish running game this year based on both last year\u2019 s and this year\u2019s data. And I don\u2019t have a ton of faith in the Lions\u2019 run defense right now, despite an improved front seven. New York is really going to lean into this matchup, so it will be extremely important for Detroit to lock things down. I believe they have the personnel to do it, but until they actually go out there and perform, it\u2019s hard to put faith in them.<\/p>\n Last week\u2019s prediction:<\/p>\n On Paper is off to a much more promising start than last year, going 2-0 straight up and 2-0 against the spread. That said, there were some things I was wrong about. I thought the Lions\u2019 running game could\u2019ve gotten going against a sketchy Bills\u2019 run defense, but I undervalued the offensive line injuries. Similarly, I called the Lions\u2019 run defense a draw with the Bills\u2019 rushing attack, and they got gashed in a way that sure felt like the end of last season. I\u2019ve dropped some confidence in Detroit\u2019s run defense because of that.<\/p>\n Still, I feel pretty good about my overall takes and my 34-24 prediction.<\/p>\n In the comment section, the appropriately named (but also spell-check required) Still got dem honolu blues came the closest to the actual score with an amazing prediction of 40-31.<\/a><\/p>\n Here is your prize\u2014a message gifted mandated by Amon-Ra St. Brown:<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\n
Week 2 (Packers): 136 passing yards allowed, 91.9 passer rating<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\n
Week 2 (Bills): 66 rushing yards, 3.3 YPC<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\n
Week 2 (Packers): 63 rushing yards allowed, 3.5 YPC<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\n
Week 2 (Packers): 218 passing yards, 90.2 passer rating<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\n
Week 2 (Bills): 243 passing yards allowed, 121.4 passer rating<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\n
Week 2 (Packers): 67 rushing yards, 2.5 YPC<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\n
Week 2 (Bills): 203 rushing yards allowed, 5.6 YPC<\/p>\n