This column originally appeared in The Politics Brief, our weekly newsletter on the people, power and policies that shape New Yorkers’ lives.<\/p>\n
Sign up<\/a> to get the full version where you can ask questions, share news tips and weigh in on the conversation. Hits inboxes on Wednesdays.<\/p>\n New York Gov. Kathy Hochul has a 9-point lead over her Republican opponent Bruce Blakeman, the Nassau County executive.<\/p>\n Or maybe she\u2019s up by 19 points. Or is it actually 4 points?<\/p>\n Hochul only needs to win her race by a single vote to secure another four-year term, and the public polls are unanimous: She\u2019s in the lead. But those same polls can\u2019t seem to agree whether she\u2019s on track for a landslide win, a single-digit squeaker or something in between.<\/p>\n \u201c\u200aThere’s nothing in the state constitution that says the governor has more or less power depending on their margin of victory,\u201d said Evan Stavisky, a veteran Democratic campaign strategist. \u201cSo ultimately, it’s much ado about nothing.\u201d<\/p>\n That may be true from the governor\u2019s perspective. But Hochul\u2019s potential margin of victory \u2014 if she wins \u2014 could have major implications for Democratic congressional candidates who are counting on her to turn out voters and help regain control of the House.<\/p>\n Just ask Robert Zimmerman. He was the Democratic congressional candidate who lost to Republican George Santos<\/a> \u2014 remember him? \u2014 in New York\u2019s 3rd Congressional District in 2022.<\/p>\n Hochul did Zimmerman and other Democratic congressional candidates no favors at the top of the ticket back then when she won statewide by 5 \u00bd points over Republican Lee Zeldin, a narrow margin in a deep blue state. That was far less than the prior two election cycles, when Gov. Andrew Cuomo won by 23 and 13 points.<\/p>\n Hochul particularly struggled on Long Island, losing the 3rd District \u2014 which includes a sliver of Queens \u2014 by roughly 12 points. Zimmerman, by comparison, lost by 5 \u00bd points, outpacing the governor in the district.<\/p>\n It all led former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi to single out Hochul\u2019s performance<\/a> as she cast blame for Republicans retaking the House that year. \u201cThe governor didn\u2019t realize soon enough where the trouble was,\u201d Pelosi said at the time, naming crime as the top issue for voters.<\/p>\n Zimmerman has plenty of sympathy for downballot candidates feeling nervous about Hochul\u2019s margin.<\/p>\n \u201cLook, I get the feeling,\u201d he said in an interview.<\/p>\n But Zimmerman said there are key differences between 2026 and 2022.<\/p>\n For one, Republican Donald Trump is in the White House, which is a \u201cgreat turnout motivator for Democrats,\u201d he said. And Hochul has invested significant resources in building up the state Democratic Party, an effort that largely didn\u2019t exist four years ago, and having a unified message centered on affordability.<\/p>\n \u201c\u200aI think that out of the heartbreaking Republican landslide we faced in New York in so many parts of the state [in 2022], that coordinated campaign has really been a real … lesson learned and a real big improvement,\u201d said Zimmerman, a public relations executive and Democratic National Committee member.<\/p>\n In an interview on WNYC\u2019s \u201cWho\u2019s Running This Place?\u201d<\/a> last week, Hochul said she understands the gravity of the situation. \u201cI don\u2019t take anything for granted,\u201d she said.<\/p>\n \u201c\u200aOur job is to make sure that we’re successful \u2014 and I’m the leader of the ticket, I understand that \u2014 but successful enough that [Democrat] Hakeem Jeffries will be the next speaker of the House of Representatives, because that’s how we start building the firewall to stop all this insanity that has been unleashed on this country,\u201d she said.<\/p>\n Republicans, meanwhile, are choosing to believe the polls that show Blakeman within single digits of Hochul.<\/p>\n Siena University had Hochul winning 50%-41% in a poll released last week<\/a> that anticipates lower turnout in deeply Democratic New York City. Quinnipiac University had Hochul winning 58%-39% in its own poll released a few hours later<\/a>, anticipating higher turnout in New York City. (In non-independent polls, Blakeman\u2019s own campaign pollster, John McLaughlin, had Hochul winning 50%-46%<\/a> earlier this month.)<\/p>\n \u201cAll polls continue to show Kathy Hochul\u2019s downward spiral and me closing the gap as New Yorkers learn more about my plan to cut income taxes by historic margins and slash electric bills in half,\u201d Blakeman said in a statement.<\/p>\n Even if Hochul does win by a considerable margin at the top of the ticket, one key lawmaker has proven it doesn\u2019t necessarily have to spell doom for Republicans.<\/p>\n Rep. Mike Lawler \u2014 a Hudson Valley Republican whose race is considered a toss-up by the nonpartisan Cook Political Report<\/a> \u2014 was one of only three Republicans nationwide to win districts that Democratic presidential candidate Kamala Harris won over Trump in 2024. Lawler, who represents New York\u2019s 17th District, is facing a challenge from Democrat Cait Conley.<\/p>\n \u201cObviously the stronger that the top of the ticket performs, the better it is for candidates down the ticket,\u201d Stavisky said. \u201cBut you certainly see candidates on both sides of the aisle in the Hudson Valley, for example, who outperform the top of their ticket.\u201d<\/p>\n Jimmy Vielkind contributed reporting.<\/p>\n We want to hear from you<\/p>\n Do you think New York Democrats have a more coherent message this cycle compared to four years ago?<\/p>\n