{"id":368912,"date":"2026-10-09T14:00:48","date_gmt":"2026-10-09T14:00:48","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-ny\/368912\/"},"modified":"2026-10-09T14:00:48","modified_gmt":"2026-10-09T14:00:48","slug":"handicapping-the-queen-elizabeth-ii-challenge-cup","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-ny\/368912\/","title":{"rendered":"Handicapping the Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup"},"content":{"rendered":"

The last U.S. Grade 1 race before the Breeders’ Cup is Saturday’s $750,000 Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup (G1) at Keeneland<\/a>, a 1 1\/8-mile grass event for three-year-old fillies.<\/p>\n

A strong 11-horse field has turned out for the 2026 edition. There are many viable contenders with the potential to challenge for a top-three finish.<\/p>\n

That includes morning-line favorite #2 Luster<\/a>\u00a0 (5-2), who is actually one of the trickier fillies to analyze. She boasts a near-perfect 6-5-0-1 record, but her last three wins have come over the synthetic Tapeta track at Woodbine. She’s been increasingly dominant and exits a 7 1\/4-length romp over Canadian-bred males in the 1 1\/4-mile Queen’s Plate S., but will that blowout win translate to success over the Keeneland turf?<\/p>\n

There’s a good chance it will. Luster is actually 2-for-2 on turf, winning her debut in a seven-furlong maiden special weight at Woodbine and kicking off 2026 with a powerful five-length romp in a 1 1\/16-mile allowance at Keeneland. Her allowance win came at the expense of Amberglen, who has won two races since then, including the Lake George (G3) at Saratoga.<\/p>\n

But the Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup is easily the toughest turf race Luster has tackled to date. She benefited from tracking a slow pace when trouncing Amberglen, and she could face a trickier pace setup in her return to Keeneland. Luster is a logical contender, but at 5-2, she strikes me as an underlay.<\/p>\n

Instead, I’ll side with #4 Faithful Departed<\/a>\u00a0 (7-2), who has run well–sometimes under challenging circumstances–in her last four starts on turf.<\/p>\n

During the spring at Churchill Downs, Faithful Departed rattled off back-to-back wins. She charged from eighth place to win a 1 1\/16-mile allowance by three-quarters of a length, then launched a rally from midfield to take the 1 1\/8-mile Regret (G3) by 2 1\/4 lengths in the fast time of 1:46.23. Her beaten rivals in the Regret included future Del Mar Oaks (G1) winner #3 Tam Tam<\/a>\u00a0 (4-1) and eventual Old Dominion Oaks winner #7 Storm’s Wake<\/a>\u00a0 (10-1).<\/p>\n

Following the Regret, Faithful Departed shipped twice to New York to compete in rich graded stakes. In the 1 1\/8-mile Belmont Oaks (G1), she was compromised by modest fractions of :23.47, :48.82, and 1:13.17, but blazed her final quarter-mile in :22.15 per the Equibase GPS result chart to close from tenth place and finish second against #9 Kensington Lane<\/a>\u00a0 (8-1), who set much of the pace.<\/p>\n

Then in the 1 3\/16-mile Saratoga Oaks (G2), Faithful Departed encountered slow fractions of :23.85, :48.99, and 1:13.43. She finished powerfully, running her final three furlongs in :33.85 and her final quarter-mile in :22.38, but after taking the lead in midstretch, she got outkicked by Kentucky Belle in the final strides and finished second by a head. Kentucky Belle flattered the form by returning to dominate the Dueling Grounds Oaks (G3) by 6 3\/4 lengths.<\/p>\n

I’m optimistic Faithful Departed will receive a more favorable pace setup in her return to Kentucky. Rivals like Luster, Tam Tam, and Kensington Lane all have tactical speed, which should ensure an honest pace. Even #11 Soloist<\/a>\u00a0 (20-1) has enough speed to get involved up front.<\/p>\n

With a fair pace to chase, Faithful Departed should be tough to hold off in the homestretch.<\/p>\n

Meanwhile, one longshot worth considering at a big price is #1 Haute Diva<\/a>\u00a0 (30-1). A versatile filly, she’s won the Cash Run S. on dirt and the Martha Washington S. on Tapeta.<\/p>\n

Haute Diva has only run three times on turf. Last year at Gulfstream Park, she trounced a one-mile maiden special weight and later ran second by a neck in a one-mile $75,000 allowance optional claimer.<\/p>\n

Then, on Aug. 6, Haute Diva returned to turf for the 1 3\/16-mile Beverly D. (G2) at Colonial Downs. Facing older rivals, Haute Diva got squeezed between rivals at the start and dropped nearly a dozen lengths off the pace–much farther back than she usually runs. Nevertheless, she closed with interest down the homestretch to finish sixth, beaten only 4 3\/4 lengths by next-out E. P. Taylor (G1) winner Gimme a Nother. Furthermore, Haute Diva finished only 2 1\/4 lengths behind subsequent Kentucky Downs Ladies Marathon (G3) winner Stellify.<\/p>\n

Returning to the three-year-old ranks for the Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup can help Haute Diva rebound, especially if she gets away to an untroubled start.<\/p>\n

Selections

\n1st: Faithful Departed

\n2nd: Luster

\n3rd: Haute Diva<\/p>\n

Now it’s your turn! Who do you like in the Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup?<\/p>\n

*****<\/p>\n

Want to test your handicapping skills against fellow Unlocking Winners readers? Check out the Unlocking Winners contests page<\/a>. There’s a new challenge every week!<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"The last U.S. Grade 1 race before the Breeders’ Cup is Saturday’s $750,000 Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":368913,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[37],"tags":[136214,77451,136216,9,24,63,136213,122,124,123,136215,60253,136212],"class_list":["post-368912","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-queens","tag-handicapping","tag-keeneland","tag-kensington-lane-ire","tag-new-york","tag-new-york-city","tag-nyc","tag-queen-elizabeth-ii-challenge-cup-stakes","tag-queens","tag-queens-headlines","tag-queens-news","tag-storms-wake","tag-thoroughbred-racing","tag-unlocking-winners"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-ny\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/368912","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-ny\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-ny\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-ny\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-ny\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=368912"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-ny\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/368912\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-ny\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/368913"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-ny\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=368912"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-ny\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=368912"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-ny\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=368912"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}