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<\/a><\/p>\nAll rushing plays averaged -0.15 EPA per play (in other words, each run made it less likely that the Giants would score on the next play), with their early runs (on first and second down) had a -0.17 EPA per play. Late runs were actually useful at 0.26 EPA per play, however.<\/p>\n
The next week against the Cardinals, the rush continued to hurt the Giants. They didn\u2019t have any good options for starting drives, but the run was still the worse option.<\/p>\n
Early runs in that game averaged a putrid -0.37 EPA per play with a 19 percent success rate, while runs on third and fourth down also hurt the offense with a -0.54 EPA per play.<\/p>\n The split was particularly lopsided this past week against the Commanders.<\/p>\n The Giants averaged -0.40 EPA per play on all running plays, while their 1st and 2nd down runs had a -0.52 EPA per play and a 19 percent success rate. Their late runs did have a 0.14 EPA per play, but that doesn\u2019t really outweight negatives of early down runs. All passing plays had a 0.29 EPA per play, with a modest 0.04 EPA per play on early passes and a great 0.99 EPA per play on late passes.<\/p>\n It is worth noting that the Giants threw far more against Washington than they did against Tennessee and Arizona. The Giants ran 36 times to 27 passing plays against Tennessee and had 30 runs with 37 passing plays against Arizona. Compare that to 65 passing plays and just 25 running plays against the Commanders.<\/p>\n The weather likely impacted how the Giants called the games, as well as their need to mount a furious comeback against the Commanders.<\/p>\n That said, we also know how John Harbaugh wants an offense to operate.<\/p>\n He wants his teams to be tough, physical, and run-first with an emphasis on the power run game. That much is absolutely plain to see when we look at how often the Giants throw the ball on neutral downs. Their 48.7% pass rate on neutral downs (first and second downs, prior to the two-minute warning, and outside of garbage time) is the fourth-lowest rate in the NFL.<\/p>\n The problem is that despite having the fourth-highest run rate on neutral downs, the Giants\u2019 -0.2.18 EPA per play on neutral-down runs is among the worst in the NFL.<\/p>\n The Giants\u2019 EPA on dropbacks, meanwhile, is 12th in the NFL at 0.141 per play \u2014 just between the Bengals and Packers.<\/p>\n There have been plenty of theories tossed out as to why the Giants\u2019 running game has struggled since Dart went down.<\/p>\n Is it based too much on the threat of the quarterback run? Is the offensive line just regressing and blocking poorly? Are the running backs too slow?<\/p>\n I would posit that each of those plays a role, but also that the Giants\u2019 coaching staff isn\u2019t doing the players any favors.<\/p>\n As noted above, the Giants\u2019 tendencies are pretty apparent from both tape and charting. They want to run the ball, and if they line up on a neutral down, odds are that it\u2019s going to be a running play. And if the defense has a good idea of what\u2019s coming, the offense needs excellent play design, excellent execution, or both to be successful.<\/p>\n For instance, fullback Patrick Ricard was on the field for 22 plays against the Commanders, two of which were penalties. Of the remaining 20 plays, 12 of them were runs and 10 of those were between the tackles.<\/p>\n The Giants had a strong tendency to play out of condensed sets, and then run between the tackles into the teeth of the defense.<\/p>\n The Giants bring both Ricard and Aaron Stinnie onto the field for a first down run at the start of a drive, as well as tight end Chris Manhertz and wide receiver Malachi Fields. This is a clear signal to the defense that the Giants intend to run the ball and they respond with a true \u201cBase\u201d personnel package. Furthermore, the Giants align Stinnie on the play-side to start, which pulls the bulk of the Commanders\u2019 defense to the strong side of the offense.<\/p>\n At the time of the handoff, the Giants had seven blockers with on the play-side to eight defenders. That automatically puts the Giants at a numbers disadvantage at the point of attack. The Giants do try to manipulate the Commanders\u2019 defense by putting Ricard in motion and pulling Sisi Mauigoa. Unfortunately, that simply causes the defense to shift back to their original alignment while Jon Runyan Jr. gets tripped up in the trash trying to work to the second level. That delays his block and effectively leads to Sisi having to block three defenders at the point of attack.<\/p>\n Using motion and pulling blockers is almost always a good idea and something the Giants did to great effect in Week 1. However, here \u2014 and far too often over the last three weeks \u2014 their play selection and design made it too easy for the Commanders\u2019 defense and too hard on the Giants\u2019 offense.<\/p>\n Overall, Cam Skattebo ran the ball 13 times and Najee Harris carried the ball 5 times. In each case, most of their carries came in heavy, condensed formations. However, their best carries came when the Giants spread their formation out. In fact, Skattebo\u2019s 19-yard run and 9-yard run both came when the Giants used 11-personnel and wider formations to lighten the box an force Washington to defend more field.<\/p>\n Quite simply, the Giants need to open their offense up, they need to lean into the pass, and they need to help their players.<\/p>\n I want to make it clear that I don\u2019t think the Giants need to turn into the Cowboys and throw 40 times per game.<\/p>\n However, it\u2019s clear that despite Jameis Winston\u2019s history of turnovers and the Giants having a razor-thin depth chart at wide receiver, passing is their better option right now.<\/p>\n Even with the interceptions (the first of which I\u2019d chalk up to a great defensive play more than \u201cJameis gonna Jameis\u201d), Winston was efficient and an asset against the Cardinals.<\/p>\n He took it up a notch against the Commanders, and his total EPA was in the 93rd percentile of all quarterbacks since 2010.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\n<\/a><\/a><\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\n