<\/p>\n
The homepage of Kalshi, an online \u201cprediction market,\u201d on Oct. 15. In late September, Kalshi began donating to several Idaho lawmakers\u2019 and state officials\u2019 campaigns.<\/p>\n
Kalshi<\/p>\n
Screenshot of Kalshi.com<\/p>\n
Will gas prices drop? Will Gavin Newsom be the 2028 Democratic presidential nominee? Will the Seahawks beat the Broncos?<\/p>\n
On Kalshi, an online \u201cprediction market,\u201d users can buy a \u201cyes\u201d or a \u201cno\u201d vote on seemingly any question, based on the outcome they expect. If they guess right, they earn money.<\/p>\n
Betting sites like this have increasingly found themselves at the center of controversy \u2014 over whether their \u201ctrades\u201d constitute gambling, whether they should be subject to states\u2019 laws around sports betting, and whether they should be banned outright amid allegations of insider trading<\/a> and other wrongdoing.<\/p>\n Kalshi, a market leader in the space, has argued that it should be regulated at the federal level, not by states. But in 2026, it ramped up its lobbying at the state level, OpenSecrets reported<\/a> \u2014 and in recent weeks, has added Idaho to that list.<\/p>\n Starting in late September, Kalshi began to donate to candidates for the Idaho Legislature, including $1,000 to House Speaker Mike Moyle, R-Star, and $500 to Senate Majority Leader Lori Den Hartog, R-Meridian. It gave $5,000 to Attorney General Ra\u00fal Labrador, $5,000 to the Idaho House Republican Caucus and $5,000 to the Idaho Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee.<\/p>\n Kalshi did not respond to an emailed request for comment from the Idaho Statesman, though a spokesperson for the company in September told OpenSecrets<\/a>: \u201cLike many U.S.-regulated companies, we support candidates on both sides of the aisle.\u201d<\/p>\n Moyle \u2014 who also heads the House Republican Caucus \u2014 told the Statesman he didn\u2019t know that Kalshi had donated to his campaign, though he emphasized that the contribution \u201cdoes not buy my vote.\u201d<\/p>\n Labrador\u2019s campaign told the Statesman by email that he did not solicit the donation from Kalshi \u2014 and that before accepting it, \u201che made clear that it would have no effect on his position on prediction markets.\u201d<\/p>\n Labrador was among 44 state attorneys general who in July signed a letter<\/a> calling platforms like Kalshi a \u201cnew form of casino\u201d that is preying on young people, The New York Times reported<\/a>. They argued that markets like Kalshi should be paying state taxes and following more stringent regulations \u2014 even as President Donald Trump has sought to limit that state oversight.<\/p>\n \u201cAttorney General Labrador\u2019s position is clear: He believes prediction markets are gambling, and the states should set gambling policy, and federal bureaucrats should not override state law,\u201d his campaign told the Statesman by email. \u201cNo campaign donation will change his position on any issue, nor his zeal to defend Idaho\u2019s laws and sovereignty.\u201d<\/p>\n Gambling is illegal in Idaho<\/a> with a few exceptions, including the state lottery. Prediction markets are available in Idaho and are regulated only<\/a> by the federal Commodity Futures Trading Commission.<\/p>\n Donations may not buy votes \u2014 but they often buy \u2018attention\u2019<\/p>\n States are just starting to regulate online betting sites, Boise State University political science professor Jaclyn Kettler said. So it makes sense, she said, that Kalshi is \u201cviewing it in their interest to start spending money at the state level.\u201d<\/p>\n Is it fair for a company like Kalshi to assume it\u2019ll get the outcome it wants by donating to particular candidates?<\/p>\n Not necessarily, Kettler said. It\u2019s more nuanced than that: Campaign donations often get donors \u201ca foot in the door.\u201d<\/p>\n \u201cThose that contribute to candidates are more likely to get meetings with office holders. They may be buying time or attention,\u201d she said. \u201cIt may be that you\u2019re developing some sort of relationship.\u201d<\/p>\n Kettler emphasized that these are aggregate trends. \u201cOf course, some office holders prioritize their constituents over everyone else,\u201d she said, and officials are subject to many competing interests.<\/p>\n Kalshi also donated $500 to several incumbent Republican state lawmakers, including Rep. Rob Beiswenger, of Horseshoe Bend; Sen. Chris Bruce, of Kuna; and Rep. Josh Keyser, of Meridian. As of Thursday, Polymarket, another well known prediction market, had not donated to any Idaho campaigns.<\/p>\n Sarah Cutler<\/a><\/p>\n Idaho Statesman<\/p>\n Sarah covers the legislative session and state government with an interest in political polarization, government accountability and the intersection of religion and politics. Please reach out with feedback, tips or ideas. If you like seeing stories like hers, please consider supporting her work with a digital subscription.
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