The diesel fuel that powers the tractors and combines on Kelly Nieuwenhuis\u2019s 3,000-acre Iowa farm costs almost double what it did earlier this year because of the war in Iran. Fertilizer prices are also rising, as Russia\u2019s war in Ukraine drags on. And sales of the corn and soybeans that he grows have been depressed amid trade fights with China, Canada and Mexico.<\/p>\n
Mr. Nieuwenhuis, a registered Republican, voted for Donald J. Trump in 2016 and 2020, but not in 2024. He is frustrated with Mr. Trump\u2019s policies as president, and plans to split his ticket in the midterm elections. He will support Rob Sand, the Democratic candidate for governor, but is backing Ashley Hinson, the Republican running for Senate.<\/p>\n
\u201cIt\u2019s the economy, stupid,\u201d said Mr. Nieuwenhuis, echoing a political slogan that has doomed Republicans in the past.<\/p>\n
He recalled spending $16,000 to fill up the fuel tanks on his farm in Primghar, Iowa, this fall. \u201cEvery election it comes down to the economy, and this policy is not working,\u201d he said. \u201cThe Iran war, all the energy costs, the inflation \u2014 everything has gone up in price drastically.\u201d<\/p>\n
The country\u2019s economic crosscurrents are cascading across Iowa. High gas prices, elevated interest rates and Mr. Trump\u2019s unpredictable economic policies, including tariffs, have been battering rural America over the last year. Iowa\u2019s economy contracted in 2025 and notched the weakest annual growth rate in the country, according to the federal Bureau of Economic Analysis<\/a>.<\/p>\n Polls suggest that the state that helped propel Mr. Trump\u2019s political rise could flip in favor of Democrats when voters cast their ballots next month.<\/p>\n The stakes are so high that Mr. Trump will head to Sioux City, Iowa, on Thursday to try and convince a once-stalwart Republican base to keep his party in control of Congress. He is expected to promote the $8 billion in economic aid to farmers<\/a> hurt by high diesel prices that he announced on Monday night. It was the second time in two years that the president authorized billions of dollars in bailout money for farmers harmed by his administration\u2019s policies.<\/p>\n The payouts are papering over a painful economic problem for Iowa\u2019s farmers, who were hurt by international backlash to Mr. Trump\u2019s tariffs in his first term and never fully recovered. Farmland values in the state have been tepid in recent years, and farm bankruptcies were up by 220 percent last year<\/a>.<\/p>\n The economic doldrums in the state have spread, with big companies such as John Deere, Wells Fargo and Whirlpool announcing job cuts in Iowa in recent months.<\/p>\n Mr. Trump\u2019s argument to let Republicans keep political power in Washington and Iowa could be a tough sell.<\/p>\n The Iowa Farmers Union<\/a>, one of the state\u2019s oldest farm organizations, backed<\/a> the entire Democratic congressional slate this cycle, breaking a decades-long streak of abstaining from federal endorsements.<\/p>\n Matt Russell, a farmer and the group\u2019s executive director, said that its members had been frustrated with Mr. Trump and the state\u2019s Republican congressional delegation long before the war. He cited cuts to federal programs benefiting farmers, cancellations of promised grants and the expiration of Affordable Care Act health insurance subsidies.<\/p>\n The Iran war and trade tensions have only added to the strain farmers were feeling, he said, as rising costs have eaten into their slim margins.<\/p>\n \u201cRepublican leadership at the federal level has not been standing up to this administration and has not been actually delivering the investments that we were counting on,\u201d Mr. Russell said.<\/p>\n Some top Republicans, including Senator Chuck Grassley of Iowa, have pleaded with the Trump administration to do more to help the state\u2019s economy. Last year, Mr. Grassley called on Mr. Trump to exempt potash, an ingredient in fertilizer, from the tariffs the president imposed on Canada. He recently called on the White House to temporarily ban diesel fuel exports, saying it would \u201chelp family farmers.\u201d<\/a><\/p>\n Peter Orazem, an economist at Iowa State University, said that economic output in Iowa had been far slower than most other states over the previous five years, recording an average annual growth rate of just 1 percent since 2021.<\/p>\n The state is not just vulnerable to dramatic changes in the agricultural sector. Tariffs have increased manufacturing production costs in the state, and Mr. Trump\u2019s immigration policies have made labor costs more expensive. The president\u2019s aversion to wind and solar has also weighed on Iowa\u2019s renewable energy sector.<\/p>\n \u201cIowa is basically lagging the rest of the U.S. pretty much across the board,\u201d Mr. Orazem said. \u201cI believe that there are few states that have been more disadvantaged by Trump policies than Iowa.\u201d<\/p>\n The agricultural concerns in Iowa also go beyond corn and soybeans.<\/p>\n The Iowa Cattlemen\u2019s Association, which represents beef producers, has also expressed frustration about some of Mr. Trump\u2019s trade policies. In August, the group criticized<\/a> his decision to cut tariffs on 300,000 metric tons of ground beef<\/a>, saying the move to sell meat below market rate would hurt struggling ranchers.<\/p>\n Economists said the imports would not significantly affect consumer prices. But they caused cattle futures to drop by hundreds of dollars, influencing the prices cattle ranchers could negotiate for at market. Numerous Midwestern Republican lawmakers, including Ms. Hinson<\/a>, pushed back against the imports.<\/a><\/p>\n The executive director of the Iowa Cattlemen\u2019s Association, Bryan Whaley, said that some of the Trump administration\u2019s policies, and Mr. Trump\u2019s comments, had driven market volatility, which he called the main challenge facing cattle ranchers in Iowa. But he said that ups and downs were part of working with any president.<\/p>\n \u201cAs in every administration, you\u2019re always going to have things that you appreciate and some things that are done that you may not necessarily agree with,\u201d Mr. Whaley, a rancher, said when asked about Mr. Trump\u2019s performance.<\/p>\n Mr. Whaley added that the state\u2019s congressional delegation had been \u201cextremely receptive\u201d to the group\u2019s concerns.<\/p>\n The political arm of the Iowa Farm Bureau, the state\u2019s largest grass roots farm organization, endorsed Ms. Hinson and all four Republican House nominees. But the group\u2019s political action committee, which has historically supported Republicans at the top of the ticket, declined to endorse in the governor\u2019s race<\/a>. The group did not respond to a request for comment on the decision. The Democratic nominee, Mr. Sand, has appealed to Republicans and swing voters with a centrist message.<\/p>\n The backlash to Mr. Trump\u2019s policies has Democrats feeling emboldened.<\/p>\n Josh Turek, the Democratic nominee for Senate, has slammed Republicans over high diesel prices and Mr. Trump\u2019s tariffs on potash, which is largely imported from Canada. Last week, Mr. Turek visited the farm of a three-time Trump voter, Marcus Tomlonovic, to drive the point home.<\/p>\n Mr. Tomlonovic, a 30-year-old corn and soybean farmer in Colfax, Iowa, said he was planning to vote for Mr. Turek and other Democrats because he was frustrated that Mr. Trump had entered a foreign war after promising to stay out of them.<\/p>\n \u201cI feel like we\u2019ve been betrayed,\u201d Mr. Tomlonovic said in a phone interview, adding that diesel had cost him an additional $1,000 each week. \u201cHow much more are we going to take before small farmers can\u2019t hang on?\u201d<\/p>\n Derek Eadon, a Democratic strategist from West Des Moines, said he was \u201ccautiously optimistic\u201d that Mr. Trump\u2019s unpopularity would help Democrats perform well in November.<\/p>\n \u201cThe Iowa Republican Party has been in lock step with Trump the entire way since he\u2019s been in office,\u201d Mr. Eadon said. \u201cAnd I don\u2019t think there\u2019s any getting away from that at the very end with a tweet or a vote here or there.\u201d<\/p>\n In a state Republicans have dominated since 2016, when Mr. Trump flipped it after Barack Obama twice won it, major races have become unexpectedly competitive. Mr. Sand has led the Republican nominee, Zach Lahn, in every major nonpartisan poll<\/a> this year.<\/p>\n Ms. Hinson, the Republican nominee for Senate, is neck-and-neck with Mr. Turek, a state representative. And Republican candidates in three of the state\u2019s four congressional districts have struggled to establish clear leads over Democratic opponents.<\/p>\n \u201cWe do need to find ways to provide relief to our farmers who are at the fields every single day in the middle of harvest,\u201d Ms. Hinson told reporters at an event this week in Des Moines, where she discussed pausing the diesel gas tax. \u201cI think long term we need to be focusing on more refining capacity here in the United States.\u201d<\/p>\n