Human beings are living through several extraordinary changes. These include climate change, the emergence of AI, declining birth rates and hard opposition to migration. Acting together, these transitions are changing human life substantially.
The climate is changing in ways that we predicted but have been unable to prevent. The impact is already upon us and will be increasingly evident in years to come, with potentially catastrophic effects.
AI is upon us too. While there will certainly be positive effects regarding productivity and access to services, AI will also disrupt human society negatively. The tendency of human beings to form close bonds has been declining since the emergence of social media. AI is sending us deeper into our own personal vortex, with human connection increasingly mediated by machines.
And then there is the demographic transition. Of all the shifts we face this is the one we discuss the least, but its impact will be profound.
Consider the figures: in the year AD 1 there were about 250-million people on Earth. By AD 1350 there were 370-million humans and by AD 1804 it had risen to 1-billion.
African populations will continue to grow, but the African economy will struggle to absorb them. It remains to be seen whether regions with declining populations will draw on those pools of human capital.
Then came 200 years of extraordinary population growth, with the human population reaching 8-billion in 2022. Those numbers are still rising and are projected to reach 10-billion by 2050.
However, it is now clear that the next great demographic shift will be towards a substantially smaller population. Birth rates are declining everywhere except in Africa. In many parts of the world they are declining fast. In most countries the fertility rate is now below the replacement rate of 2.1 births per woman, and in many places it is even lower.
Societies as diverse as South Korea, Canada and Italy have fallen below 1.3 births per woman, signalling future population decline. Just as populations grew rapidly so they can reduce significantly within a few decades. China’s population is already beginning to shrink despite official attempts to reverse the trend.
In South Africa we are also experiencing a demographic transition. The population grew rapidly in the 1970s and 1980s, at an average rate of more than 3% a year, high by global standards. In 1994 there were 40-million people in South Africa. Now we are about 64-million.
Rising populations have challenged our ability to provide services and create jobs, especially in big cities. But our population dynamics are changing fast. South Africa’s fertility rate has dropped substantially over the past 20 years and is now near replacement level, at 2.2 births per woman. This means that — aside from immigration — population size will plateau in the coming years and may decline in the second half of the century.
Like AI, the demographic transition will have positive and negative consequences. As human populations decline and age it will become more difficult to provide for older people, the tax base will decline and there will be fewer people in consumption markets.
Smaller populations will have lower environmental impacts and may create the conditions to address climate change. Perhaps the most important immediate question is how demographics will affect migration policy.
African populations will continue to grow, but the African economy will struggle to absorb them. It remains to be seen whether regions with declining populations will draw on those pools of human capital.
For South Africa the key question is whether we can raise per capita income and provide opportunities for young people. While a smaller growth rate might make this easier in time, the challenges of inclusive economic growth remain the urgent priority.
• Bethlehem is an economic development specialist and partner at Genesis Analytics. She has worked in the forestry, renewable energy, housing and property sectors as well as in local and national government. She writes in her personal capacity.