As I do every year, I’m putting my own Pittsburgh Steelers predictions to the test. How right was I about the 2025 season? Revisiting two articles I annually write, my “2025 stat predictions” and “10 Things I Think About The 2025 Steelers” to see what proved true and what became completely incorrect. As usual, there’s a mix of both.
What I Got Right
“OT Troy Fautanu Will Be Worth The Wait”
Was the first thing I wrote in my “10 Things” article. A lost rookie season due to repeated knee injuries made for a key sophomore year for Fautanu. He looked strong in the summer and that largely carried over to the fall. He became an excellent pass protector and serviceable run blocker, looking like an anchor of the future. Pittsburgh’s largely hit on its front-five picks, a critical component GM Omar Khan has gotten right.
Fautanu must do it all over again in 2026 and teams will have a better scouting report on him. But he looks like a strong former first-round pick and if Pittsburgh declines OT Broderick Jones’ fifth-year option, Fautanu could become the first homegrown Steeler to have his exercised since T.J. Watt. That decision will come May 2027.
“No Clear No. 2 Will Emerge”
I was skeptical if a No. 2 receiver would break out, especially within the confines of Arthur Smith’s offense. None did and Pittsburgh again enters an offseason with uncertainty after feeling the pain of not having a receiver opposite DK Metcalf. That was especially felt during Metcalf’s first game suspended, a bitter Week 17 loss to the Cleveland Browns.
Calvin Austin III made clutch plays but wasn’t consistent enough. Roman Wilson spent most of the year on the bench. By season’s end, Adam Thielen and Marquez Valdes-Scantling were seeing most of the snaps, which tells you all that you need to know. If anything, RB Kenneth Gainwell was Pittsburgh’s No. 2.
“End Of Season Slate Will Be Hard – But More Manageable Than 2024”
When the schedule dropped last May, much was made about Pittsburgh’s daunting end to the season. A final five-game stretch of Baltimore, Miami, Detroit, Cleveland, and Baltimore again. While the Steelers took their lumps, they didn’t collapse like in 2024. The Steelers won four of those final games, scoring a huge upset over the Lions and beating the Ravens in Week 18 to capture the division.
“DK Metcalf Will Be The A.J. Brown Of Arthur Smith’s Offense”
Admittedly, this one could go in either way. Was Metcalf truly the A.J. Brown of Smith’s offense? For long stretches, it didn’t feel like it. But in that blurb, I added this final prediction.
“In 2020, Brown finished with a 75/1,075/11 line. Metcalf’s numbers will look similar, though his touchdowns probably won’t be quite as gaudy.”
In my stats prediction, I guessed a 72-reception, 1,006-yards, seven-touchdown season over 17 games. Extrapolate Metcalf’s numbers from 15 to 17 games, accounting for his suspension, and he would’ve finished with 67 receptions, 963 yards, and 6 touchdowns. I’ll take that as being “correct enough.” And look forward to you yelling at me in the comments about it.
“More Kenneth Gainwell, Less Kaleb Johnson To Begin The Year”
True in the beginning, middle, and end of the season. I was a little late to the conclusion but began mentioning how active Gainwell could be in the passing game throughout training camp. And sounded concern on Johnson being too raw to protect for Aaron Rodgers.
“If Johnson can’t round out the edges in his game, he’ll have a hard time earning trust from Rodgers and the coaching staff,” I wrote in my camp evaluation, giving him a middling C-grade for his summer showing.
Gainwell spent the year rotating with Jaylen Warren as Pittsburgh’s top back. Johnson spent the year on the bench with his most memorable moment his kickoff flub against Seattle. I should’ve been more aggressive in my stance, but it was clear Johnson wasn’t going to have a big role early. His early-season mistakes ensured that wouldn’t change anytime later.
Prediction: 10-7 record
Though it’s not particularly difficult to pick 10 wins for a team that’s now won 10 games three years running, my prediction was correct. Despite all the roster turnover, the Steelers’ record went unchanged from a season ago – or the year before that. The more things change, the more they stay the same. That’s the Pittsburgh way.
I am a mess at picking games in-season but in preseason predictions, I’ve displayed an accurate track record.
Rodgers stats: 24 TDs/9 INTs
My touchdown and interception stats for Rodgers. He finished with 24 touchdowns and seven interceptions. My yards were about 300 too high, but he gave the Steelers their best pass-game production of the post-Ben Roethlisberger era. Solid though unspectacular numbers.
Alex Highsmith 9 sacks + Derrick Harmon 3 sacks
A couple sack predictions here. Highsmith finished with 9.5 to lead the team, an element I certainly didn’t expect. Harmon missing five games played a role in his lower sack total but I didn’t expect big-time pass rush production from his rookie year. It’s an area he’ll need to focus on as a sophomore.
23.1 PPG (actual 23.4) – 4 points away from being literally correct
My touchdowns were a little lower than the actual total (40 versus 45) but my points per game was about on the money. The Steelers ended the year averaging 23.4 points. Had they scored four fewer, this would’ve been 100 percent money. Finishing 15th place was Pittsburgh’s best rank since 2020 but it’s hardly a figure worth celebrating.
What I Got Wrong
“Derrick Harmon Will Need Time To Catch Moving Train”
A thought written knowing he’d miss a couple of weeks with his MCL sprain. Harmon didn’t play until Week 3 but made an immediate impact against the run, tightening things up as soon as he entered the lineup.
While his pass rush needs work, Harmon didn’t look rusty from the time lost and enjoyed a fine rookie season without a clear learning curve I anticipated.
“Defensive Scheme Will Feel Different”
Were there some changes? Yes. But largely, the defensive scheme was the same. The hope of going man-heavy went away after Pittsburgh’s secondary was torched by Joe Flacco and the Cincinnati Bengals in a Thursday night loss. Jalen Ramsey finished the season at safety, Darius Slay finished it on the street, and another year of “we mean it when we say T.J. Watt will move around” went nowhere. Even if that’s more of a Watt-directed issue than coaching decision.
Pittsburgh blitzed more but generally, the scheme was the scheme. With a new defensive coordinator and coaching staff, we’ll see how many changes happen.
“Payton Wilson Breaks Out”
Wilson was a player I was confident would find his stride. Two years in and he’s only running in place. I recently wrote about his issues to become not just an every-down player but a base-package player. Pittsburgh quickly swapped him out for Cole Holcomb on run downs and once healthy, Malik Harrison stepped in.
Maybe a new coaching staff helps. Maybe d-line reinforcements do the trick. Regardless, Wilson did no breaking out.
“Lack Of O-Line Depth Will Become Apparent”
Poor offensive line depth was a chief concern entering the season. I was proven wrong. Spencer Anderson thrived as a sixth offensive lineman and held his own spot starting for Isaac Seumalo, though things got messy as Pittsburgh continued to use him as a sixth offensive lineman in those packages. Dylan Cook showed gem potential after replacing an injured Broderick Jones for the stretch run. And the rest of the group stayed healthy.
If anything, it was the backups who got hurt just as often, Max Scharping and Calvin Anderson going down with season-ending injuries.
When depth was tested, Pittsburgh passed. Swing and a miss by me.
“Steelers Finally Get Over The Playoff Hump”
In 2024, I predicted Pittsburgh would win 10 games, make the Wild Card, but lose in the postseason. In 2025, I predicted 10 wins, a Wild Card berth, but a playoff win. That didn’t happen.
Instead, it was the same old one and done. An ugly showing against a dominant Houston Texans defense that ruled the second half. And so Pittsburgh’s playoff win drought continues. If the Steelers can’t break it in 2026, the streak will run into double-digits.
I also predicted Baltimore to win the division with Pittsburgh finishing second. That proved to be flipped.
Kaleb Johnson/Kenneth Gainwell Season Numbers
While I thought Gainwell would have a stronger early-season impact, I thought Kaleb Johnson would eventually get his chance. My stats prediction, which in my small defense were made before I gave more credence to the idea of Gainwell usurping him, put Johnson at 167 carries, 773 yards, and six touchdowns. Not even close.
Johnson was one of the league’s least productive rookie backs and finished the year with just 28 carries, 69 yards, and zero scores. It’s hard to miss more than this.
Gainwell, meanwhile, had a career year in just about every category. My stats sure didn’t account for that.
Jonnu Smith’s Yards Per Reception (11.1)
I didn’t think Jonnu Smith would come close to the 88/884/8 line he posted in Miami in 2024 but figured he would be a hearty downfield target. He was anything but that. Smith had literally one of the worst seasons in tight end history with a 5.8 yards reception average befitting a slow running back more than a tight end. Smith caught the ball a decent clip but did little with it.
T.J. Watt 17.5 sacks + Jalen Ramsey 5 INTs
Just to finish up some wrong stats. I expected Watt to bounce back in a big way. Take the “1” off his prediction and I look a lot smarter. I also thought Ramsey could set a single-season high in interceptions. He ended with just one, picking off Sam Darnold in Week 2. That was it. At least Ramsey can say he snagged one off a Super Bowl champ.