As the Keystone State prepares for an impending snowstorm, many are wondering how much snow will actually fall.
The answer? It varies.
Meteorologist Matthew Teare, of the National Weather Service office in State College, said forecasts indicate Harrisburg and surrounding areas will see plowable snow, around 2 inches or more expected to start on Sunday.
It is still unclear what time of day the snow will start falling.
“The main thing is that the confidence is just a little higher that there will be snowfall occurring,” Teare said.
The potential for “more” than 2 inches falls in areas like Centre, Mifflin, Juniata, and Perry counties, which Teare says could see heavier snow. Unlike more recent snowstorms, which Teare says were easier to predict in advance due to trends in temperature and weather, this upcoming storm is a little more complex.
“This situation is a little more complicated,” Teare said. “There are upper-level lows, enhancements along that bend, and the coastal storm. So there is still that uncertainty, but most solutions have been showing what we’ve described today [two to three inches].”
According to the Regional and Mesoscale Meteorology branch of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, an upper-level low is a high-altitude area of cold air, which in many cases creates uncertainty in forecasts due to its movement.
“The development of an Upper Level Low depends on the existence of unstable waves within the general flow in the upper levels of the troposphere,” the NOAA site reads. “A characteristic feature for these unstable waves is the temperature wave being situated behind the potential wave.”
This storm, while expected to be moderate, may bring varying amounts of snow across Pennsylvania.
“It looks a bit spotty in terms of where snow could fall,” Teare said. “At least in terms of what the models are showing in central Pennsylvania.”
In the midst of all the pending snow, fog has also been heavy across central Pennsylvania, which Teare says is due to cold air sinking and becoming trapped in the northeast’s mountain ranges.
“So as a result, for Harrisburg and even State College, we’ve been seeing this persistent, dreary, foggy, and cool weather sinking towards the valley,” Teare said. “Resulting in that fog.”
The fog will likely disappear as the weather begins to shift.
While the snow is on most people’s minds, rain is also expected, with Harrisburg seeing about a half an inch, and higher totals in areas like Altoona, which may see upwards of three-quarters of an inch.
As the pending wintry mix approaches the East Coast, Teare estimates that a full forecast through Monday will be available by later afternoon on Friday.