Democratic Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro holds a lead over Republican State Treasurer Stacy Garrity in a new poll of the state’s gubernatorial race released on Wednesday.

Newsweek reached out to Shapiro for comment via email. The Garrity campaign declined to comment.

Why It Matters

Pennsylvania is a critical battleground roughly divided between Democrats and Republicans that has voted for both parties in recent elections. It backed President Donald Trump in 2024 after voting for former President Joe Biden in 2020. Shapiro, first elected in 2022, is up for reelection in November. Garrity is at the moment running unopposed in the GOP primary and has received Trump’s endorsement. Although Shapiro has remained popular in the state, Republicans are hoping to make the race competitive in November due to its status as a swing state.

What To Know

A new Quinnipiac University poll on Wednesday showed Shapiro with an 18-point lead over Garrity, with 55 percent of respondents backing Shapiro and 37 percent saying they plan to support Garrity. Among independents, Shapiro led by a margin of 51-34 percent.

Fifty-one percent of respondents said they view Shapiro favorably, while only 30 percent said they view him unfavorably.

Meanwhile, most voters—66 percent—haven’t heard enough about Garrity to say whether they view her favorably. Sixteen percent said they view her favorably, while 17 percent said they view her unfavorably, according to the poll.

The poll also asked about who voters will support in the House of Representatives elections. There are several competitive races in Pennsylvania, making it a pivotal state for control of Congress in 2026. Forty-nine percent said they would like to see Democrats win control of the House, while 43 percent said they would like to see Republicans retain control.

The poll surveyed 836 registered voters from February 19 to February 23 and had a margin of error of plus or minus 4.7 percentage points.

Shapiro defeated state lawmaker Doug Mastriano by 15 points in 2022 (57 percent to 42 percent). Garrity is seen as a potentially stronger opponent, having already won statewide—including in 2020, when she eked out a victory despite Democrats winning other statewide races.

The governor is viewed as a rising star in the Democratic Party and is considered a potential 2028 presidential contender. Democrats view his strong electoral record in Pennsylvania, a must-win state in presidential elections, as a critical asset against a Republican.

When asked if Shapiro would do a good job as president, 40 percent said they believe he would make a good president, while 43 percent said they did not think he would, according to the poll.

What People Are Saying

Quinnipiac University Polling Analyst Tim Malloy, in the polling memo: “Shapiro maintains solid numbers as governor. Do Pennsylvanian voters think he’s up to the job in the Oval Office? Not exactly a ringing endorsement.”

Sabato’s Crystal Ball analyst Nick Field, in December: “Yet, despite Shapiro’s high approval numbers, state Republicans are actually optimistic about this 2026 race, as they recruited a credible candidate in state Treasurer Stacy Garrity (R). With two statewide wins under her belt, Garrity is a considerably stronger candidate than 2022 and 2018 nominees Doug Mastriano and Scott Wagner, who were a pair of especially conservative state senators who both lost in landslides. Garrity may have to face Mastriano in a primary, though, as the latter is considering another run.”

What Happens Next

Forecasters give Shapiro an advantage. Both Sabato’s Crystal Ball and Cook Political Report classify the race as “Likely Democratic.”