Both Pennsylvania and Maine went to the polls yesterday ahead of the State of the Union address. All three were expected to be Democratic holds so the margin of victory was what people were looking for.Â
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In Maine, HD-94 was on the ballot in Lewiston. There aren’t Presidential results broken down by state house seat. There is some confusion with how well MVP Harris did in this state house district because Maine sucks at allocating ballots to precincts. However, the best estimate has MVP Harris winning this district by less than 15 points.
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Re-upping this. We think this +13 figure is probably pretty close to the mark, but there are error bars you don’t normally see with other states.
We’ve also seen +5 Harris floating around out there, but we don’t know what that’s based on and don’t think that’s right.
— The Downballot (@the-downballot.com) February 24, 2026 at 8:56 PM
Our results were an UNDERPERFORMANCE with a 6-point win. This was still a relief because there was chatter on The Downballot that we had a real chance of losing this race…
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BREAKING: Scott Harriman just won his election to Maine’s HD-94!
He’s ready to join the legislature and work to bring down the cost of living, expand health care access, and fight back against Republican extremism.
— Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee (@thedlcc.bsky.social) February 24, 2026 at 8:45 PM
There were quite a few factors in the underperformance:
A divisive caucus that broke the party along racial lines.
A better than normal GOP candidate.
Large Muslim minority which is celebrating Ramadan right now.
No attempt to get our constituencies to the polls including the college students.
On the fringes of the large snowstorm that hit over the weekend.
In Pennsylvania, we were expected to win the special elections for HD-22 and HD-42 and we did.
In PA-HD-42, which is in the Pittsburgh area, we won by about a 34-point overperformance. That’s one of the better ones this year and a salve after the Maine news above. Jen Mazzocco ran a pretty good campaign.
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Final results in the Pennsylvania #HD42 (Harris+29) special election:
Jen Mazzocco (D)- 81.6%
Joseph Leckenby (R)- 18.4%
A 34 point overperformance from 2024 in the southern suburbs of Pittsburgh!
— Uncrewed (@uncrewed.bsky.social) February 24, 2026 at 9:43 PM
In PA-HD-22, which is in the Lehigh Valley, our candidate Ana Tiburcio overperformed by a solid 17-point margin. Note that this district is heavily Latino by CVAP which means way fewer votes.
A good sign for November especially in HD-22…
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This district had the second-biggest swing to Trump between 2020 and 2024 of all the specials in the cycle so far. The biggest was in NJ SD-32, which is also heavily Latino, and where the Democrat in the special also outperformed *both* Harris and Biden.
— Daniel Donner (@donnermaps.bsky.social) February 24, 2026 at 10:43 PM
The Pennsylvania overperformances are more evidence in a long string of them. I doubt we will see that level in November but high single digits to low double digits are possible. That would easily win the House of Representatives and put the Senate in play as well!
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