Amid Democratic Governor Josh Shapiro’s reelection bid, the race for Pennsylvania governor on Wednesday just shifted from likely Democrat to solid Democrat, the Cook Political Report highlights.

Newsweek reached out to political analysts via email for comment.

Why It Matters

Pennsylvania has swung between parties in recent high-profile races, with voters backing Joe Biden for president in 2020 and Donald Trump in 2024, making the state central to national party strategies and down-ballot dynamics.

Forecaster ratings and multiple polls inform the likely odds of an incumbent’s outcome in the highly contested swing state.

What To Know

The Cook Political Report said in a release on Wednesday in part that, “Despite landing their preferred recruit against Democratic Gov. Josh Shapiro, Republicans look no closer to ousting the moderate incumbent than they were a year ago. Shapiro has an approval rating consistently around 60%, a gargantuan cash-on-hand advantage and a decisive polling lead over GOP state Treasurer Stacy Garrity, making it almost impossible to see him coming up short in his quest for a second term.”

“This contest shifts from Likely Democrat to Solid Democrat as a result, taking the sole statewide race in the nation’s quintessential bellwether off the 2026 playing field,” the report added.

Recent polls also show Shapiro in a good spot ahead of the midterm election.

According to a recent survey from Franklin & Marshall College Poll, Shapiro has 48 percent compared to Garrity’s 28 percent. The poll surveyed 834 registered Pennsylvania voters from February 18 to March 1, 2026. The survey has a 4.1 percent sample error.

In a February poll from Quinnipiac University, Garrity has 37 percent compared to Shapiro’s 55 percent, and 6 percent were undecided. The poll surveyed 836 self-identified registered voters in Pennsylvania and has a 4.7 percent margin of error.

What People Are Saying

Shapiro on X on Wednesday: “I believe government can and should be a force for good: one that fixes your roads, supports local businesses, and protects your fundamental freedoms. I’m working hard to make that a reality.”

Garrity on X in January: “I am honored to receive the endorsement of President Donald Trump. In 2016, President Trump did what no Republican nominee in 28 years was able to accomplish – win the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania. And in 2024, he repeated this feat by an even larger margin. Why? Because President Trump has been a voice for hardworking Americans, who have been too often left behind, by standing up to our international adversaries like China, lowering the tax burden on families and small businesses, and returning pride to our nation.

“Josh Shapiro has done everything he can to stand in President Trump’s way, suing his administration more than two dozen times. Josh Shapiro is President Trump’s number one adversary, and I am looking forward to working with President Trump and his team to defeat Josh Shapiro this November,” Garrity added.

What Happens Next

The general election is scheduled for November 3, 2026.