Pittsburgh Pirates manager Don Kelly stands in the dugout before a baseball game against the Philadelphia Phillies Sunday, June 8, 2025, in Pittsburgh. (AP Photo/Matt Freed)
Happy Opening Day, yinz.
The start of another season of Pittsburgh Pirates Baseball is here. I have five predictions for what I think will happen in 2026.
Paul Skenes Repeats as Cy Young
Paul Skenes enters the 2026 season looking for a second straight Cy Young after winning the award following a stellar 2025 season, and I think he will.
Skenes has established himself as arguably the top starting pitching in baseball and enters the year as the favorite once again to be named the National League Cy Young.
The big right-hander has made 55 starts through his first two seasons in the big leagues and has had a sub-2.00 ERA each year. Last year, he led baseball in ERA (1.97), FIP (2.36) and home runs per nine innings (0.5) and led the National League with a 0.948 WHIP. He also set the franchise record for strikeouts in a single season by a right-handed pitcher with 216.
How much better can he get? It will be a challenge to improve upon what he’s already done in his career, but regardless, I think whatever he does will once again be worthy of a Cy Young award.
The Rookie of the Year Also Resides in Pittsburgh
Two years ago, Skenes was named the National League Rookie of the year, the second Pirates player to ever do so. I think a third will be named this year, giving Pittsburgh two Rookie of the Year winners in the last three years.
It could be Konnor Griffin. Despite starting the season with Triple-A Indianapolis, Griffin will have a shot to take home the honor, and that shot should come sooner rather than later. As the consensus top prospect in baseball, the 19-year-old has all the tools needed to be an impact player.
But if it’s not Griffin, it could be Bubba Chandler. The right-hander will start the year in the Pirates’ starting rotation after making his MLB debut towards the end of last season. Chandler, who still has his rookie eligibility intact, is considered one of the top pitching prospects in baseball.
If all goes according to plan, the Pirates will have two players receive Rookie of the Year votes after the season, and I think either will have a strong case to wear to crown.
Two All-Stars: One Obvious, One Not So Obvious
I’m predicting the Pirates will have two representatives at the All-Star Game across the state at Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia in July.
The first one is obvious — Paul Skenes, who has started each of the last two Midsummer Classics for the National League. Depending on how the scheduling shakes out when the time comes, he very well could make it 3 for 3 this summer.
Last year, Skenes had a teammate with him during All-Star festivities. Although he wasn’t an All-Star, Oneil Cruz participated in the Home Run Derby. This year, I think Cruz will not only compete once again, but he’ll do so as a National League All-Star. And he just might win the Home Run Derby this time, by the way.
Justin Lawrence Emerges But Bullpen Regresses
Lawrence missed most of last season with an arm injury but was virtually untouchable when he was on the mound — to start the season and after he returned from the injured list at the end of the year.
If Lawrence stays healthy this year, which he has done for most of his career, I think he has a chance to breakout and become one of the top relievers — if not the top — in the Pirates’ bullpen. He has the stuff to do so and is someone who has spent time in the closer role from his days with the Colorado Rockies.
But while I feel like Lawrence will emerge this season, I think Pittsburgh’s bullpen will take a step back. Let me be clear, I think the bullpen will be competent, but I’m not sure they’ll finish as good as they did last season when they ranked sixth in the National League with a 3.83 ERA.
I was surprised the Pirates didn’t make another bullpen addition along with Gregory Soto. Let’s see if it comes back to haunt them.
82-80, 3rd Place in NL Central; No Playoffs
Can the Pirates be a playoff team? Absolutely. The offense should be much improved and the starting pitching still looks like it will be a strength. But in order to get there, a lot will need to go right, and despite a solid effort to build a winner this offseason, I’m not ready to give the Pirates the benefit of the doubt just yet.
I feel pretty strongly about the chances of three National League teams to make the playoffs this year — the Los Angeles Dodgers, the New York Mets and the Philadelphia Phillies. Maybe you can throw in the Chicago Cubs too. That leaves two spots for the Pirates, Milwaukee Brewers, Atlanta Braves, Arizona Diamondbacks, San Francisco Giants, San Diego Padres and Cincinnati Reds. (Sorry Rockies, Nationals, Marlins and Cardinals).
In my MLB predictions, I was debating giving the Pirates the final Wild Card spot but opted instead for the Brewers, who finished 26 games better than Pittsburgh last season. Do I think the Pirates will be better than they were last year? Yes. Do I think the Brewers will be as good as they were last year? No. But do I think the Pirates can make up a 26-game difference and pass them? That would be a huge stretch.
My philosophy this year is that the Pirates will at the very least get you to football season. I think they’ll play meaningful games in September. At that point, anything is possible, but I have them just short of a playoff spot. But hey, a winning season is a winning season and is something that’s only been done in Pittsburgh four times since the heartbreaking end in 1992.
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