Ranger Suárez has been a staple atop the Phillies’ rotation for the better part of five seasons, cementing himself as one of the best left-handed starters in baseball. But with the club’s rotation already one of the most expensive in the league, the question this winter is whether re-signing him is the right move.
His tenure in Philadelphia
Signed as a 16-year-old out of Venezuela in 2012, Suárez worked his way through the system before debuting in 2018. It wasn’t until 2021, though, that a mid-season move by then-manager Joe Girardi turned him into a full-time starter — and changed his career.
That year, he dominated out of the bullpen before transitioning into the rotation. Over 40 ⅓ innings of relief, he posted a 1.12 ERA, then followed it with a 1.51 mark across 12 starts, allowing just one homer in 65 ⅔ frames.
Since then, Suárez has been one of the league’s most consistent arms. From 2022 through 2025, he made 104 starts and recorded a 3.59 ERA with a 117 ERA+.
But it’s October where he truly built his reputation. In 11 postseason appearances (8 starts), Suárez owns a 1.48 ERA — the sixth-lowest in MLB history among pitchers with at least 40 playoff innings. The company includes names like Mariano Rivera, Sandy Koufax and Christy Mathewson.
Manager Rob Thomson has repeatedly praised Suárez’s poise in those moments, calling him “a cornerstone of what we’ve built on the pitching side” and crediting his “calmness, competitiveness and trust from his teammates.”
His 2025 season might have been his most complete. Despite missing time early with lower-back soreness, Suárez made 26 starts and logged a 3.20 ERA with 151 strikeouts and only 38 walks. The addition of a new slider and increased changeup usage helped him limit hard contact — his 31.1 percent opponents’ hard-hit rate ranked in the 98th percentile, and his overall run value placed him in the 90th percentile per Statcast.
His lone postseason outing in the NLDS helped cap off a strong contract year.
Offseason outlook
Bringing Suárez back might be a challenge financially. The Phillies already have significant money tied up in their rotation: Zack Wheeler (two years left on his three-year, $126 million deal), Aaron Nola (five years remaining on his seven-year, $172 million contract), and Taijuan Walker (one year left on his four-year, $72 million deal). Add Jesús Luzardo’s projected $12 million arbitration salary, and that’s nearly $85 million committed to starting pitching.
President Dave Dombrowski acknowledged the payroll tension directly. “We’ve got the three that were with us all year long — Schwarbs, J.T. and Ranger — and we’d love to have them all back if it worked out,” he said. “It’s probably impractical.”
He’s also expressed interest in extending Luzardo after an encouraging first season in Philadelphia, which could further stretch the rotation budget.
The 30-year-old’s market, meanwhile, figures to be one of the most competitive in free agency. Reliable left-handed starters are rare, and Suárez, alongside fellow southpaw Framber Valdez, ranks among the top arms available by 2025 WAR.
The recent market provides the blueprint. Over the last four winters, several lefties have topped $20 million annually:
2024-25 – Max Fried (Yankees): 8 years, $218 million
2024-25 – Blake Snell (Dodgers): 5 years, $182 million
2023-24 – Eduardo Rodríguez (D-backs): 4 years, $80 million
2022-23 – Carlos Rodón (Yankees): 6 years, $162 million
2021-22 – Robbie Ray (Mariners), 5 years, $115 million
Rodríguez’s 2023 campaign — a 3.30 ERA in 26 starts at age 30 — might be the closest comparison, but Suárez’s track record is stronger. Since becoming a full-time starter in 2021, his 15.2 WAR ranks fifth among all left-handed pitchers.
The one lingering concern: durability. Suárez has yet to make 30 starts in a season, though his October résumé may erase doubts for contenders.
The Phillies, meanwhile, have depth but not certainty. Wheeler is recovering from thoracic-outlet surgery, and Dombrowski said the club expects him back “by the end of May.”
Cristopher Sánchez appears poised for a bigger role, while Luzardo, Nola and Walker have rotation spots. Top prospect Andrew Painter could join the group after a healthy spring, having finally logged a full season back from Tommy John surgery — a step Dombrowski called “encouraging” and “optimistic for a regular offseason.”
Speculation over a trade — like one for Detroit’s Tarik Skubal — seems highly unlikely because of how the Phils’ farm system stacks up against other clubs. Free-agent lefty alternatives such as Nestor Cortes, José Quintana, or Jordan Montgomery could fill the void if needed.
Prediction
The Phillies let Suárez walk. The southpaw signs a four-year, $115 million deal with the Giants, joining a rotation built to fit his contact-heavy style in a pitcher-friendly park.
While the Phillies admire Suárez’s makeup and postseason pedigree, the cost likely proves too steep. As Dombrowski put it, “We have a very substantial payroll… but you don’t have unlimited [funds].”
With major money already locked into Wheeler and Nola and several extensions under consideration, Philadelphia’s front office could very well move on and bid farewell to one of its dominant arms.