Democratic Governor Josh Shapiro‘s advantage over Republican state treasurer Stacy Garrity has grown to 22 points in Pennsylvania, according to a new Susquehanna Polling & Research survey released Tuesday, signaling an increasingly difficult path for the GOP challenger heading into November’s midterm election.
Shapiro captured 58 percent support compared to Garrity’s 36 percent among 700 likely voters polled March 18-29, with 5 percent undecided. The survey has a margin of error of ±3.7 percentage points.
Why It Matters
Pennsylvania has swung between parties in recent high-profile races, with voters backing Joe Biden for president in 2020 and Donald Trump in 2024, making the state central to national party strategies and down-ballot dynamics.
Forecaster ratings and multiple polls inform the likely odds of an incumbent’s outcome in the highly contested swing state.
What To Know
The result marks the widest gap yet measured in the race and represents a steady expansion of Shapiro’s lead throughout the cycle. A Franklin & Marshall College poll conducted in late February showed Shapiro leading by 20 points, 48 percent to 28 percent.
A Quinnipiac University survey from the same month found him ahead by 18 points, 55 percent to 37 percent. An earlier Quinnipiac poll from September 2025 measured Shapiro’s advantage at 16 points, 55 percent to 39 percent.
The consistent widening suggests Shapiro has consolidated support among Pennsylvania voters even as Garrity, backed by President Donald Trump’s endorsement, has struggled to gain traction against the incumbent. Political forecasters have noticed the trend’s strength.
The Cook Political Report shifted the race from “likely Democrat” to “solid Democrat” in March, citing Shapiro’s consistent 60 percent approval rating, substantial cash-on-hand advantage and decisive polling lead. The report noted the shift takes Pennsylvania’s sole statewide race “off the 2026 playing field.”
The margin mirrors Shapiro’s dominant 2022 performance against state Senator Doug Mastriano, when he won by more than 15 points—a benchmark that suggests sustained Republican weakness in statewide races across the state.
What People Are Saying
Shapiro on X on Tuesday: “Here in Pennsylvania, we work every day to bring people together and Get Shit Done to move our Commonwealth forward. Whether it’s cutting taxes seven times in my first term, delivering historic funding for our public schools, creating over 22,000 new jobs, or funding law enforcement all across Pennsylvania, I’m proud to be a GSD Governor — but our work isn’t done yet.”
Garrity on X in January: “I am honored to receive the endorsement of President Donald Trump. In 2016, President Trump did what no Republican nominee in 28 years was able to accomplish – win the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania. And in 2024, he repeated this feat by an even larger margin. Why? Because President Trump has been a voice for hardworking Americans, who have been too often left behind, by standing up to our international adversaries like China, lowering the tax burden on families and small businesses, and returning pride to our nation.
What Happens Next
The general election is scheduled for November 3, 2026.
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