The Green Bay Packers (4-1-1) and Pittsburgh Steelers (4-2) meet in Week 8 Sunday Night Football on October 26. Kickoff is set for in 8:20 p.m. ET from Acrisure Stadium in Pittsburgh, Pa. The game will broadcast on NBC.
The Packers are favored by -3 on the spread over the Steelers (Packers -3), with the over/under set at 45.5 points. Green Bay is a -165 favorite to win outright on the moneyline, while Pittsburgh is +135 to pull off the upset.
As an underdog, at home, and coming off a loss, this is a spot I always have circled for the Steelers as a “rah rah” spot under head coach Mike Tomlin. Aaron Rodgers facing his former team doesn’t hurt, either. Let’s get into my Sunday Night Football preview and Packers vs Steelers prediction.
Packers vs Steelers pick: Steelers +3
My Packers vs Steelers best bet is the Steelers to cover the spread at +3. Find the best odds by checking our live NFL odds page.
Packers vs Steelers Odds
Sunday, Oct. 26
8:20 p.m. ET
NBC
Packers OddsSpreadTotalMoneyline
-3
-105
45.5
-110o / -110u
-165
Steelers OddsSpreadTotalMoneyline
+3
-115
45.5
-110o / -110u
+135
Packers vs Steelers Sunday Night Football Preview
Schematically, the Steelers should have an edge in the passing game.
Packers defensive coordinator Jeff Hafley runs a zone-heavy scheme and has dialed man coverage only 27.8% of the time this season, which is the fifth-lowest rate in the NFL.
Among 36 qualified passers according to FTN, Aaron Rodgers ranks 25th in yards per dropback versus man (4.4), but third against zone (8.0). And per FTN, Among 181 qualified pass-catchers, Steelers running back Jaylen Warren ranks fourth in yards per route versus zone (3.4), and DK Metcalf ranks sixth (3.1).
The Steelers’ running game has had the most success on inside zone running plays, averaging 4.6 YPC, while the Packers defense has had the most trouble stopping inside zone, surrendering 4.7 YPC.
Offensively, the Packers have been inconsistent over the past month.
They scored only 10 points against the Browns, choking away a 10-0 third-quarter lead. A couple of weeks later, they only managed 10 points in the first three quarters against the lowly Bengals. And last week, they were down by seven at the end of three quarters against Cardinals backup quarterback Jacoby Brissett before scoring two fourth-quarter touchdowns to escape with a four-point win.
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If the Steelers flop in this spot, it will likely be due to giving up explosive plays.
The underlying metrics for the Steelers defense are solid — 11th in early-down success rate against both the pass and run — but they’ve given up way more explosive plays than their talent level suggests they should.
The Steelers’ eighth-place ranking in explosive pass rate allowed (8.0%) is deceiving, as it drops to 25th (9.7%) if you remove the Browns game, and Pittsburgh also ranks 23rd in explosive rush rate allowed (12.7%).
Still, the Steelers should be able to improve in this spot.
Besides having the requisite talent level, with the likes of T.J. Watt, Cameron Heyward and Alex Highsmith up front and Jalen Ramsey, Darius Slay and Joey Porter Jr. on the back end, they’ve also had a long break since playing last Thursday, and this is a spot they typically get up for.
On top of that, the Packers offense is still not in peak form.
Wide receiver Jayden Reed (IR-collarbone) is still out, and Dontayvion Wicks (calf) will be sidelined as well.
Christian Watson (questionable-knee) will be playing in his first game since tearing his ACL late last season, and Matthew Golden (questionable-hip) was an ominous late-week addition to the injury report.
Packers vs Steelers Prediction, Betting Analysis
Per our Action Labs data, the Steelers are 64-34-3 (65%) against the spread (ATS) as an underdog under Mike Tomlin, including 51-25-2 (67%) from October-on.
As a ‘dog off a loss, the Steelers are 24-13 (65%) ATS under Tomlin.
As a home ‘dog under Tomlin, Pittsburgh is an absurd 21-7-3 (75%) ATS for a 41% ROI.
Pick: Steelers +3 (to +3)
Spread
Steelers +3. As a home under dog under Mike Tomlin, the Steelers have won outright 61% of the time (19-12), good for a 54% ROI.
Moneyline
If the spread drops below +3, the moneyline is an option.
Over/Under
No play. This could go either way with the Packers offense going cold for stretches, but the Steelers giving up a higher than expected amount of explosive plays.
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