Gas prices in the Lehigh Valley hit $4.17 for a gallon of regular Thursday, according to AAA’s daily survey, up 9 cents over the past week. The good news is, that’s a penny cheaper than it was on Wednesday.

Two common business adages are playing out in that one number: Oil prices go up like a rocket and down like a feather; and, financial markets hate uncertainty above all else.

The slight decrease in price is likely a result of hope that a tenuous ceasefire in the Iran war may persist. The increase over the past week reflects uncertainty over the lack of clarity of the status of ship traffic in the Strait of Hormuz, which hosts about one-fifth of the world’s energy products.

Thursday’s national average for gas was also $4.17, but Pennsylvania’s average was reported as $4.19. The highest national average price AAA ever reported was $5.02 on June 14, 2022. That same week, Pennsylvania reached its highest average of $5.07.

The map below shows prices in every state and the District of Columbia.

Pennsylvania once again comes in as the 13th most expensive place to buy gas in the country as of Thursday morning, with its average higher than neighbors Ohio, West Virginia, Delaware, New York and New Jersey, but less than Maryland, which has the notoriety of being the most expensive state on the Eastern Seaboard.

The western states remain the costliest overall, with California leading the way, at $5.93 per gallon, down about a half-cent from Wednesday.

The state’s prices varies from $3.99 in Montour County to $4.38 in Crawford County, just below Erie. Montour is the only one of the state’s 67 counties below the $4 per gallon threshold.

Another bit of welcome pump price news is that, at $4.14, Bucks and Montgomery counties have returned to the lowest tier of prices in the state, after spending several weeks besting the state’s average. Chester, Delaware and Philadelphia counties are also below the state’s $4.192 average: $4.150, $4.156 and $4.191, respectively.

The chart below shows prices for the Allentown area, as well as several metro areas in the region.

The Lehigh Valley had spent the past three weeks above the state average, but has since drifted down to $4.17 in Lehigh and $4.18 in Northampton, just under Pa.’s average. New Jersey’s average has fallen more dramatically, now 11 cents lower than Pennsylvania. Warren County, the valley’s closest Garden State neighbor, posted prices of $4.05 Thursday, 13 cents lower than Northampton County, AAA says. Cape May County remains the most expensive in New Jersey at $4.225.

Crude prices

The price of gas is mostly dependent on the price of crude oil. Business Insider tracks the closing price of crude on various markets. Brent, the North Sea oil that represents the majority of international petroleum trade, closed at $96.70 on Wednesday night, the first time it’s closed under $100 since March 24. Over the past year, Brent crude has varied in price from $58.40 to $119.50. The price per barrel has gone up 50.61% over the last 15 months, and the closing price of $118.31 on March 31 was the highest since June 2022.

West Texas Intermediate crude, which is considered most important for the U.S. market, closed at $96.51 on Wednesday, down $13.79 from the day before. WTI has ranged in price from $54.98 to $119.47 over the last 52 weeks, according to Business Insider. The U.S. reference commodity has gone up 53.26% since January of last year.

The charts below shows the daily closing price since January of last year for both reference crudes.

 

The Energy Information Administration’s analysis predicts that the price of crude will remain above $95 per barrel for the next two months. The government analysis notes, “This price forecast is highly dependent on our modeled assumptions of both the duration of conflict in the Middle East and resulting outages in oil production.”