About 18 inches of snow fell all last winter in the Lehigh Valley, marking one of the least snowy seasons in recent years. Forecasters are expecting a similar winter this season.

Paul Pastelok, AccuWeather’s long-range forecast expert, said with the organization’s research and modeling, it could be another uneventful winter for the Lehigh Valley and southeastern Pennsylvania.

“It’s kind of not very far off from last year,” he said.

He said there will likely be a little more snow, and it could be a little colder toward the end of the season.

AccuWeather is predicting a “bookend” winter, with the biggest storms expected in the beginning and end of the season, according to the organization’s recently released winter outlook.

Snow totals are going to be higher than last winter in the Northeast, including Philadelphia, according to AccuWeather, but some storms may produce a wintry mix instead of just snow, similar to what happened last winter.

The average snowfall for the past 15 years in the Lehigh Valley is about 33 inches, according to National Weather Service data. The last time a winter was that snowy, or higher, was the 2020-21 season, when 58.1 inches fell.

Pastelok said there were no major nor’easters that affected the region last season, and it looks like that will be the case again. Most major storms missed the area last year. 

He said there’s a possibility of snow in December, more of a mixing in January, and a colder February with more snow possibilities.

AccuWeather said La Niña is one of the biggest factors in their forecast. La Niña is when the water near the Pacific Ocean is cooler than average sea surface temperatures for at least five consecutive three-month seasons, according to AccuWeather.

Forecasters there are expecting between 14 and 18 inches of snow this winter in Philadelphia, an increase from the 8 inches it got last year. AccuWeather predicted the city would get between 15 and 20 inches last year. 

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration has issued a La Niña watch, saying conditions for it emerged in September and will likely continue through the winter. Model predictions favor La Niña through the winter, however it looks like it will be weak, which means it is less likely to have conventional weather impacts, according to NOAA.

Forecasters with NOAA are predicting most of eastern Pennsylvania will have above-normal temperatures in the winter. They are also predicting equal chances of precipitation in the winter. A representative from NOAA could not be reached because of the government shutdown.

The Weather Company, owner of the Weather Channel, said in its November to January outlook there will likely be above-normal temperatures during that timeframe. Precipitation is expected to be below average during that time as well, which will prolong drought conditions.

Pastelok said the abnormal dryness will likely persist through the rest of the year. As of late October, most of the Lehigh Valley is under drought conditions following months of below-normal rainfall totals.

“At this point it doesn’t look like very promising,” Pastelok said of future precipitation.

Rain is expected this week, but only about 1 or 2 inches is likely, according to the National Weather Service. 

Last year was the second least-snowy winter in the Lehigh Valley over the past five seasons, according to the National Weather Service data. January was the snowiest month at 8.6 inches total. December and February both had about 4 inches of snow.

What will winter look like this year in the Lehigh Valley? Here’s what the Almanacs predict