Political newcomer Bob Brooks pulled off a decisive win Tuesday to gain the Democratic nomination for the state’s 7th Congressional District, which includes Lehigh, Northampton and Carbon counties, as well as three precincts in Monroe. He will go against Republican first-term incumbent Ryan Mackenzie in the Nov. 3 general election. Mackenzie ran unopposed on the Republican primary slate.
The fact of Brooks’ win is not a surprise to those following the campaign, but his dominance over opponents Carol Obando-Derstine, Lamont G. McClure and Ryan Crosswell may have been.
Here is a look at where the candidates’ votes came from — and where they didn’t.
Turnout was relatively light for a midterm election, as can be seen in the graphic below showing turnout percentages for Lehigh and Northampton counties for every election back to 2020. Tuesday’s turnout for both counties was just over 20%, meaning that four out of five registered voters didn’t participate. The 7th District race was one of the few contested races on the ballot, so there wasn’t a lot to draw any but the most committed voters to the polls.
Turnout numbers in Pennsylvania’s primaries are always lower than in general elections since only registered Democrats and Republicans can vote for candidates, keeping about one out every six voters at home on primary day. All voters can cast ballots for referendums, of which there was only one this time around, in Hanover Township, Lehigh County.
According to unofficial vote totals, Brooks garnered more than 41% of all the votes cast in the district’s 367 precincts, almost as much as the next two closest competitors, Crosswell and McClure, combined.
That dominance showed in all four constituent counties within the 7th district, as seen in the combination chart below. By percentage, Brooks had his strongest showing in the Northampton County portion of the district, as did former Northampton Executive Lamont McClure.
Brooks’ dominance in Northampton County was so strong that he won in each of the 155 voting districts in all corners of the county, from Mount Bethel to Walnutport, to Lower Saucon.
That was not the case in Lehigh County, where Obando-Derstine won in 13 precincts and Crosswell carried 17 precincts. Obando-Derstine tied Brooks in Upper Macungie’s 7th district, each getting 58 votes. But Brooks took the other 127 voting districts — more than 80% of the county’s 158 districts.
McClure did not win in any precincts in Lehigh County.
Brooks’ victory Tuesday thrusts him into one of the most-watched races going into the general election season. The 7th district’s closely split electorate is considered one of the few swing districts left in an increasingly polarized political climate, drawing attention from national media and political pundits.
As of May 18, there are 20,000 more Democrats than Republicans in the district, equating to a 3.3% registration advantage. But there are more than 110,000 voters who are unaffiliated or align with other parties among the district’s 540,000 registrants. That’s one out of five voters — a crucial contingent of voters who will be key to carrying the win in November.