The campaign for governor is poised to kick into high gear now that the top of the ticket for Pennsylvania’s general election is set.

Gov. Josh Shapiro, a Democrat from Montgomery County, and his running mate, Lt. Gov. Austin Davis of West Mifflin, are facing Republican Stacy Garrity, the state’s treasurer, and her running mate, Jason Richey of Sewickley, in the November election.

Shapiro, Garrity and Davis ran unopposed in Tuesday’s primary. Richey, an attorney who chairs the Republican Committee of Allegheny County, trounced John Ventre of Hempfield to secure the GOP nomination and formally become Garrity’s running mate. Garrity endorsed Richey in the lieutenant governor’s race.

From here on out, the campaign figures to be a grueling sprint with plenty of obstacles for the candidates to navigate. Here’s a look at seven hurdles that could define the race:

Money matters

Shapiro and Davis have a significant financial advantage.

State filings show Shapiro’s campaign had $37.8 million in available cash as of May 4, while Davis’ campaign had another $2.3 million. That brings their combined campaign war chest to more than $40 million. Garrity’s campaign had $1.4 million in available cash as of May 4, while Richey had more than $210,000, filings showed.

“Money is the lifeblood of a campaign,” said Mike Mikus, a political consultant from South Fayette who has worked on numerous Democratic campaigns. “As a challenger taking on an incumbent, you don’t necessarily have to equal the fundraising of the incumbent, but you have to hit a certain baseline to execute a modern campaign in a very big state.”

Mikus said it costs at least $1 million a week to run a statewide television ad campaign in all of Pennsylvania’s markets.

Political environment

Berwood Yost, director of the Center for Opinion Research at Franklin & Marshall College in Lancaster, said today’s political environment “favors Democratic candidates, generally.”

Historically, candidates in the opposing party of the president in the White House fare better in midterm election years. The Brookings Institution reported last year that the president’s party lost ground in 20 of the past 22 midterm House elections stretching back to 1938.

Trump’s overall approval rating has slipped in most polls. A Quinnipiac University poll released Wednesday showed that 34% of voters approve of the job Trump is doing, down from 38% about a month ago. A majority of those surveyed disapproved of the way Trump is handling the economy (64%) and U.S. military action against Iran (56%), both up from a month ago.

“Campaigns do not take place in a vacuum. For Republicans, it’s harder than it has been in the past. It’s something we have to deal with,” said Christopher Nicholas, a Republican political consultant from central Pennsylvania.

Changing electorate

The electorate is different than it was four years ago when Shapiro was elected governor.

Since 2022, the number of registered Democrats is down more than 4%, the number of Republicans is up nearly 6%, and the number of independents and members of other parties has grown almost 15%, state data show.

Neither major party makes up a majority of the electorate.

“You can’t win (a statewide race in Pennsylvania) with just your base. You have to attract moderate and independent voters,” Yost said.

Growing support, maintaining base

This can be a tightrope act. In trying to win over independents and undecided voters, candidates can sometimes alienate some of their base supporters, the political experts said.

“It will be interesting to see how closely Stacy Garrity ties herself to President Trump — and how much Josh Shapiro tries to align her with Trump,” Yost said. “Historically, when Trump is not on the ticket, there is a decrease in his voters showing up to vote. Garrity has to figure that out. She needs the Trump voters to come out to have a shot, but she also needs to bring in new voters.”

While the Quinnipiac poll showed Trump’s overall approval rating at 34%, fewer independents — 26% — approve of the job he’s doing.

“She’s in a political vice right now,” Mikus said.

Eyes on higher office

Garrity’s campaign has accused Shapiro of being more concerned about boosting his national profile for a potential White House bid in 2028 than he is about serving another term as governor. Shapiro has been widely mentioned as a potential contender for the Democratic presidential nomination, though he hasn’t said whether he intends to run.

“If you ask Stacy Garrity whether she intends to serve all four years if elected governor, her very easy, unequivocal answer is yes. That’s not the case with Josh Shapiro,” Nicholas said.

Mikus said he didn’t think the criticism will be a factor.

“Stacy Garrity just got elected treasurer (in 2024) and then turned around and started running for governor. She’s guilty of whatever she’s accusing him of doing,” Mikus said.

Budget issues

Shapiro has been criticized by many Republicans for offering unrealistic budget proposals that rely on revenue streams that don’t exist, including taxes on the sale of recreational marijuana and on skill games — even though lawmakers have yet to come close to passing legislation that would allow for either.

Last year’s budget was adopted 135 days late. And this year’s record $53.3 billion budget proposal from Shapiro was projected to use nearly $4.6 billion, or more than half, of the state’s largest reserve fund to balance. The deadline to adopt a spending plan is June 30.

Could it haunt Shapiro during the campaign if the state again misses its budget deadline?

Mikus doesn’t think so, noting, “Voters have seen this go on governor after governor. They view it as more of a generic Harrisburg problem.”

Yost added: “Historically, governors do not get the blame for late budgets. Legislators do.”

Scorched earth?

Polling consistently has shown that a majority of voters approve of the job Shapiro has been doing as governor, with some ratings climbing as high as 60%.

“Stacy Garrity is going to have to tear down his record and build herself as a viable alternative,” Yost said.

Mikus said one strategy could be for Garrity to go “scorched earth” by attacking Shapiro with negative ads.

“When you combine his favorability with her lack of funds, she’s going to have to go scorched earth, which complicates her ability to make gains,” Mikus said. “When a candidate goes negative, it drives up your negatives as well.”