While the Lehigh Valley has recently had a string of dreary, foggy, drippy days, there wasn’t enough precipitation to change the region’s moderate drought conditions — at least, not yet.
While there was at least a trace amount of rain in five of the seven days May 21-28, the total accumulation was 1.23 inches, not enough to soak the area’s silt loam.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration updates its drought condition declarations each Thursday, but conditions remain unchanged over the last several weeks: All of Lehigh and Northampton counties are in at least moderate drought, with a sliver of southwestern Lehigh in severe drought.
The chart above shows that May’s precipitation totals 1.5 inches so far with only a few days left in the month. That’s less than half the 30-year average recorded at Lehigh Valley International Airport. The chart tracks what hydrologists call the water year: the period from October through September, which aligns with the natural cycle of waterway depletion and replenishment. March is the only month in the 2026 water year that was above the 30-year average for precipitation.
The area’s total precipitation since the start of the water year is 20.5 inches, less than 75% of the average 28.2 inches measured since 1996.
Climate and agricultural specialists consider several factors in addition to precipitation when assigning one of five drought levels to a region. The levels range from D0 (abnormally dry) through D4 (exceptional drought). Conditions, including soil moisture, waterway flows, water table depth, temperature and winds, and predicted impact on crops and livestock all play a part in forecasting drought levels.
The Lehigh River, measured at the Fahy Bridge in Bethlehem, has had an average depth of just under 2 feet since Oct. 1. It has been running above average almost every day since late April, as seen in the chart below, though it is still within normal parameters for this time of year.
The U.S. Geological Survey reports that most area streams are running within their normal ranges, except for the Little Lehigh Creek in Allentown, and the Monocacy Creek in Bethlehem, both of which are running much below normal for May. Smaller streams like those react quickly to rain because they catch a lot of run-off from their urbanized surroundings. But they just as quickly return to prior conditions once the rain stops.
That variability is one of the reasons why scientists look below ground to measure the depth of the water table. Each county has an observation well — Lehigh’s in Haafsville, Upper Macungie Township, and Northampton’s is in Jacobsburg state park. It can take several hours to several days for falling rain to percolate through the soil and be absorbed by it. The graphs below show how far below ground instruments have to sink before they hit the water table. Lehigh’s well has been below its all-time average throughout the current water year, while Northampton’s briefly topped its average in March. But it has been below average since the second week in April, although, unlike Lehigh’s, it is still considered within its normal range.
This map shows the groundwater status in each of Pennsylvania’s 67 counties. Conditions are measured against 60-year averages.
The national drought monitor is updated every Thursday, incorporating the latest readings as well as changes in long-term forecasts.
Lehigh Valley weather forecast
Friday: Sunny, with a high near 77. West wind 5-10 mph. Mostly cloudy Friday night, then gradually becoming clear, with a low around 53. West wind 5-10 mph becoming northwest after midnight. Winds could gust up to 20 mph.
Saturday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 69. North wind around 15 mph, with gusts up to 30 mph. Mostly clear Saturday night, with a low around 48.
Sunday: Sunny, with a high near 74. Mostly clear Sunday night, with a low around 53.
Monday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 76. Mostly clear Monday night, with a low around 52.
Tuesday: A chance of showers. Mostly sunny, with a high near 74. Chance of precipitation is 40%. A chance of showers Tuesday night. Partly cloudy, with a low around 52. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
Wednesday: A chance of showers. Mostly sunny, with a high near 74. Chance of precipitation is 30%. Mostly clear Wednesday night, with a low around 53.
Thursday: Sunny, with a high near 79.