The Phillies have a quick decision to make — and not an easy one.

Left-handed relief pitching is a rare commodity in baseball, and for four and a half seasons, José Alvarado gave Philadelphia flashes of dominance. 

But a 2025 campaign marred by an 80-game suspension and a forearm injury leaves the front office weighing whether to exercise his $9 million team option or pay his $500,000 buyout before the five-day deadline following the World Series.

His tenure in Philadelphia

Alvarado’s time in Philly has been a roller-coaster since arriving from Tampa Bay in a three-team deal back in December 2020.

When he’s right, the left-hander is overpowering — routinely touching triple digits with his sinker. From 2022–23, he was one of the game’s most dominant bullpen arms. In 2022, he registered a 14.3 K/9 — good for third amongst all relievers — and posted a 1.74 ERA in 2023, third-best among left-handed relievers.

But inconsistencies have always followed him. In 2021, he walked 47 batters in 55 2/3 innings, the highest rate of qualified relievers (minimum 50 innings). And in 2024, his strikeout rate dipped sharply from 13.9 K/9 the year prior to just 9.2, while Alvarado’s opponents’ hard-hit percentage remained among the league’s worst. His 4.09 ERA in 66 games reflected that struggle.

When 2025 began, it looked like Alvarado had settled in. Through his first 20 outings, he carried a 2.70 ERA and appeared back to form. Then, the suspension hit. Alvarado violated MLB’s performance-enhancing drug policy, which also made him ineligible for postseason play. His absence left the Phillies thin on left-handed depth, relying heavily on Matt Strahm, Tanner Banks and midseason pickup Tim Mayza.

When Alvarado returned in late August, the results weren’t there. He posted a 7.50 ERA before being sidelined again with forearm tightness, effectively ending his season and casting doubt on his future with the organization.

What to do with Alvarado?

Despite the suspension, there’s a case for picking up the option.

When healthy, Alvarado is one of the hardest-throwing relievers in the game — his fastball velocity still ranked in the 99th percentile in 2025 — and few lefties can generate his kind of swing-and-miss. Phillies manager Rob Thomson backed his belief in the lefty, telling reporters at the end-of-season press conference, “It was a tough year for José in a lot of different ways, but making sure he’s healthy going into the offseason eased his mind and mine. I’m really bullish on Alvy. I love him — his energy, his stuff.”

It helps that the free-agent market for left-handed relievers is on the older side. The best available options — veterans like Hoby Milner (35), Danny Coulombe (36), and Brooks Raley (38) — are solid but not stellar. Alvarado’s $9 million option looks reasonable compared to Spotrac’s calculated market value of $11.6 million.

The front office also has the benefit of familiarity. Alvarado has pitched in 21 postseason games for the Phillies and knows how to handle high-leverage innings in Philadelphia. His energy plays well in the clubhouse, and fans have shown support — giving him a standing ovation upon his return despite the suspension.

Jose Alvarado received a warm welcome from Phillies’ fans in his return to the team and spoke about his outing after the game.

Still, the volatility is there. The 30-year-old’s command remains an issue and should not be ignored. But at a modest short-term commitment, the risk feels worthwhile. A rebound to even league-average production (around a sub-4.00 ERA) would justify the option value.

Prediction

Given the lack of dependable lefty depth in the organization and the uncertainty around external options, the Phillies pick up Alvarado’s $9 million option for 2026.

It’s a low-risk, high-upside bet on a familiar arm. For a bullpen searching for stability, that might be enough to make the gamble worth it.