Pa. voters grow more negative on economy, Trump as Shapiro leads, F&M poll shows

F&M poll shows Shapiro ahead as Pennsylvania voters grow more negative on economy, Trump

AND BEYOND COMING UP IN MY TEN DAY FORECAST. THANKS, CHRISTINE. NEW. THIS MORNING WE HAVE THE RESULTS OF THE LATEST FRANKLIN AND MARSHALL COLLEGE POLL, WHICH WERE RELEASED JUST THIS MORNING. SO WE’RE GETTING A LOOK AT THESE NUMBERS. POLITICAL ANALYST BERNARD YOST FROM FRANKLIN AND MARSHALL COLLEGE JOINING US LIVE TO BREAK DOWN THESE RESULTS. YOU HELPED ENGINEER THIS POLL. SO YOU’RE JUST THE PERSON TO TALK TO ABOUT THESE NUMBERS. AND WE’RE SEEING SOME SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN THESE RESPONSES, WHICH IS NOT TOO TYPICAL, JUST IN A MATTER OF MONTHS. HOW QUICKLY A SENTIMENT HAS CHANGED. LET’S TALK ABOUT THE ECONOMY. THAT WAS THE TOP ISSUE THAT VOTERS SAID THEY’RE FACING RIGHT NOW. AND WHEN IT COMES TO IF YOU THINK THAT YOUR FAMILY IS FINANCIALLY DOING BETTER OR WORSE THAN YOU WERE A YEAR AGO, YOU SEE HERE BETTER OFF, ONLY 14%, WORSE OFF, 47%. THESE NUMBERS CHANGED EVEN A BIT SINCE YOU ASKED THIS QUESTION IN MARCH, WITH MORE PEOPLE SAYING THEY’RE WORSE OFF. YEAH, THIS THIS IS A KEY INDICATOR THAT WE TRACK YEAR AFTER YEAR. AND IT ALSO TELLS US IT OFTEN TELLS US HOW SATISFIED PEOPLE ARE WITH THE INCUMBENT ADMINISTRATION AND HOW PEOPLE ARE CERTAINLY HOW THEY’RE FEELING ABOUT THEIR FINANCES. IT’S A KEY INDICATOR. IT HAS MOVED A LOT, AND LARGELY BECAUSE I THINK RESPONSES TO INFLATION. PEOPLE ALSO TELL US THAT THE ECONOMY IS THE BIGGEST PROBLEM CONFRONTING THEM TODAY, RISING PRICES, HOUSING PRICES, GAS PRICES, ALL OF THAT FACTORS IN. AND THIS IS OFTEN A PARTIZAN QUESTION, MATT, MEANING THAT REPUBLICANS FEEL BETTER THAN DEMOCRATS WHEN REPUBLICANS HOLDING THE WHITE HOUSE. BUT WE’VE EVEN SEEN SLIP SLIPPAGE AMONG REPUBLICANS WHO ARE NOW MORE LIKELY TO SAY THEY’RE WORSE OFF FINANCIALLY THAN BETTER OFF. THAT WASN’T TRUE IN MARCH, IN MY LAST POLL. THESE NUMBERS ARE ROUGHLY WHERE THEY WERE RIGHT BEFORE THE PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION IN 2024. SO WE’RE KIND OF RIGHT BACK TO THAT FEELING. WE ARE. AND I MEAN, I’VE SORT OF REFLECTS THE STASIS WE’RE IN. I MEAN, EVERYONE’S LOOKING FOR SOLUTIONS, BUT MOST PEOPLE FEEL THAT OUR GOVERNMENT ISN’T DELIVERING THOSE SOLUTIONS. AND THIS IS AN EXAMPLE OF THAT. AND NO DOUBT THESE NUMBERS ARE DRAGGING PRESIDENT TRUMP’S APPROVAL IN PENNSYLVANIA. AND THIS WAS THE ISSUE THAT GOT HIM TO WIN PENNSYLVANIA. ACCORDING TO MOST POLLS IN THAT ELECTION. SO LET’S TAKE A LOOK AT WHERE WE ARE HERE. THE MAJORITY OF VOTERS IN THIS POLL, 71%, THINK HE’S DOING A FAIR OR POOR JOB. HIS NUMBERS ON THE ECONOMY AND INFLATION ARE EVEN LOWER THAN THEY’VE ALL DROPPED SIGNIFICANTLY. WE DON’T USUALLY SEE THE KIND OF MOVEMENT THIS QUICKLY IN THESE KINDS OF INDICATORS. NORMALLY THERE’S A SLOW TREND OVER TIME. WE’VE HAD A LOT OF CHANGE HERE. IT’S LARGELY BECAUSE OF WHAT HAPPENED IN IRAN AND THE AND THE CONSEQUENCES OF THAT, PARTICULARLY AROUND THE ECONOMY. THE PROBLEM FOR THE PRESIDENT HERE IS THAT WHEN YOUR NUMBERS ARE THIS LOW, YOU’RE STARTING TO LOSE YOUR OWN SUPPORTERS. SO IN OUR MARCH POLL, WHEN HIS NUMBERS WERE ABOUT TEN POINTS HIGHER, IT WAS ABOUT 80% OF REPUBLICANS SAID HE WAS DOING AN EXCELLENT OR GOOD JOB, ABOUT 60%. SO HE’S NOT JUST LOSING SUPPORT BROADLY, HE’S ALSO SEEING SOME EROSION WITHIN HIS OWN BASE. AND WE’RE SEEING THE EXTREMES CHANGE TO THAT EXCELLENT NUMBER, WHICH WOULD BE HIS MOST FERVENT SUPPORTERS. THAT EXCELLENT NUMBER CAME DOWN JUST SINCE MARCH, AND THE POOR NUMBER, WHICH IS THE LOWEST, WENT UP. AND HE’S BEEN A POLARIZING FIGURE SINCE THE START, BUT EVEN MORE SO NOW. SURE. SO THAT’S HOW PRESIDENT TRUMP IS BEING AFFECTED BY THE ECONOMY. LET’S LOOK AT GOVERNOR SHAPIRO’S VIEW HERE, BECAUSE IT IS MUCH DIFFERENT. IT DOESN’T APPEAR THAT THE ECONOMY IS DRAGGING SHAPIRO’S APPROVAL AT ALL. IT’S SPLIT 48%, 48%, AND THIS IS ROUGHLY WHERE HE’S BEEN IN HIS ENTIRE TIME IN OFFICE. YEAH, HIS NUMBERS ARE REALLY SOLID. HE’S AS POPULAR A SECOND TERM OR FIRST TERM INCUMBENT AS WE’VE HAD IN THIS STATE. YOU KNOW, HE DOESN’T GET THE BLAME FOR WHAT’S HAPPENING IN THE ECONOMY. WHEN WE ASK PEOPLE ABOUT THE ECONOMY AND AND THAT BEING THE BIGGEST PROBLEM AND WHO CAN FIX IT? PEOPLE THINK DEMOCRATS CAN FIX IT. THEY THINK IT’S THEIR TURN NOW. AND SO NONE OF THIS NEGATIVE. AND THERE’S A LOT OF NEGATIVE SENTIMENT IN THIS POLL. NONE OF THAT REALLY CARRIES OVER TO THE TO THE GOVERNOR. AND HE’LL BE ON THE BALLOT IN NOVEMBER. WE CAN LOOK AGAIN AT THIS IS THE NEW RESULTS IN OUR IN OUR NEXT SLIDE HERE, SHOWING YOU THE HEAD TO HEAD. IF THE ELECTION WERE HELD TODAY, WHO THE PEOPLE WOULD SUPPORT IN PENNSYLVANIA, 50% RIGHT NOW FOR SHAPIRO, 28% FOR GARRITY, HIS REPUBLICAN CHALLENGER. GARRITY’S NUMBERS HAVE NOT CHANGED AT ALL SINCE MARCH. SHAPIRO ACTUALLY WENT UP A LITTLE BIT, A LITTLE BIT. THIS NUMBER TO ME AND THIS RACE TO ME, REALLY HASN’T GOTTEN STARTED YET. THESE NUMBERS HAVE STAYED PRETTY CONSISTENT SINCE WE STARTED ASKING ABOUT IT. BUT IF STACY GARRITY IS GOING TO HAVE A CHANCE, SHE’S GOING TO HAVE TO START CHANGING THESE NUMBERS. I THINK THAT STARTS WITH BECOMING BETTER KNOWN SO THAT MORE PENNSYLVANIA VOTERS ACTUALLY KNOW WHO SHE IS AND WHAT SHE STANDS FOR, BUT HE’S IN A REALLY GOOD POSITION, IN PART BECAUSE HIS PARTY ISN’T IN CONTROL OF THE WHITE HOUSE. THAT’S OFTEN A BENEFIT FOR GOVERNORS, AND ALSO MANY OF THE STRUCTURAL THINGS THAT WE’VE SEEN IN THIS POLL, INCLUDING CONCERNS ABOUT THE ECONOMY, ETC., ETC., THAT MANY REPUBLICANS ARE GOING TO HAVE TO DEAL WITH BECAUSE PRESIDENT TRUMP IS IN POWER. SURE, ONE NONPOLITICAL QUESTION TO SHOW YOU FROM THE POLL, THIS WAS INTERESTING BECAUSE THIS IS BEING DISCUSSED IN THE STATE CAPITOL RIGHT NOW. WHEN IT COMES TO CELL PHONE USE IN SCHOOLS. THE QUESTION WAS ASKED, SHOULD STUDENTS HAVE ACCESS TO THEIR PHONES WHILE THEY’RE IN SCHOOL, OR SHOULD SCHOOLS BE ABLE TO LIMIT THAT ACCESS TO PHONES? LOOK AT THAT. YOU RARELY SEE AN ISSUE WHERE 89% OF PEOPLE AGREE ON IT, AND THEY WANT SCHOOLS TO BE ABLE TO TO LIMIT PHONE USE. AS YOU CAN SEE, IT’S HUGELY POPULAR. I DON’T KNOW HOW OFTEN WE GET THINGS WITH 90% SUPPORT, BUT MOST PEOPLE THINK THIS IS A GOOD IDEA AND WE’LL SEE. IT’S BEING DISCUSSED AT THE STATE CAPITOL. YOU KNOW, MAYBE IT’S TIED TO THE TO THE STATE BUDGET. WE’RE NOT SURE. BUT OVERWHELMING SUPPORT FROM FROM VOTERS IN PENNSYLVANIA, ACTUALLY, THAT’S AN IMPORTANT POINT. WE ASKED A NUMBER OF OF ISSUE QUESTIONS IN THE POLL. THERE’S A LOT MORE SUPPORT ON CERTAIN ISSUES THAN THAN YOU WOULD THINK. WE’RE OFTEN WE OFTEN TALK ABOUT ALL THE DIVISIVENESS IN OUR POLITICS. WE’VE. WE’VE GOT EVIDENCE THAT THERE’S A LOT OF THINGS THAT MANY PEOPLE SUPPORT. THIS IS ONE OF THEM. OKAY. AND YOU CAN SEE THE REST. WE HAVE THE FULL POLL RESULTS ON OUR WEBSITE, WGAL.COM, SO YOU CAN REALLY GET INTO IT TO SEE HOW SENTIMENT

F&M poll shows Shapiro ahead as Pennsylvania voters grow more negative on economy, Trump

Updated: 11:19 AM EDT Jun 18, 2026

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Pennsylvania voters are increasingly worried about their finances, pessimistic about the state’s direction and more dissatisfied with President Donald Trump’s job performance, according to the June 2026 Franklin & Marshall College Poll. Video above: WGAL’s Matt Barcaro and Political Analyst Berwood Yost analyze the poll results. The poll found that 47 percent of registered voters say they are worse off financially than they were a year ago, up from 36 percent in March, while 47 percent say Pennsylvania is on the wrong track compared with 36 percent who say it is headed in the right direction.Financial anxiety tops voter concernsAccording to the poll, the economy remains the top issue facing Pennsylvania voters, with 35 percent naming it as the state’s most important problem.Economic concerns cited by voters included:UnemploymentHousing and real estate costsHigher gas pricesRising utility billsAmong voters who identified economic problems as the biggest issue, Democrats were favored over Republicans on handling the economy, 42 percent to 24 percent, according to the poll.Shapiro leads in governor’s raceThe poll found Gov. Josh Shapiro’s job approval rating is evenly split:48 percent say he is doing an “excellent” or “good” job48 percent say he is doing a “fair” or “poor” jobSupport for Shapiro varied by party:About three in four Democrats rated him positivelyNearly half of independents rated him positivelyJust over a quarter of Republicans rated him positivelyIn the 2026 governor’s race, the poll found Shapiro leading Republican challenger Stacy Garrity 50 percent to 28 percent.Video below: Shapiro leads as Pennsylvania voters sour on economyBroad support for several state policy proposalsThe survey found strong support for several state policy ideas, including:89 percent support limiting access to cell phones in schools72 percent support a state law banning discrimination in employment or housing based on sexual orientation or gender identity71 percent support regulating and taxing skill games70 percent support an independent commission to draw state legislative districts59 percent oppose mid-decade redistricting, now taking place in some statesTrump’s ratings fall sharplyThe poll found President Trump’s approval rating dropped significantly since the college’s March survey.According to the poll:29 percent say Trump is doing an “excellent” or “good” job71 percent say he is doing a “fair” or “poor” jobThat marks a decline from March, when 39 percent gave Trump a positive approval rating.The poll also found declining support for the Trump administration’s handling of several issues, including:ImmigrationForeign affairsInflationApproval of the administration’s handling of inflation fell from 31 percent in October to 17 percent in the June poll.In congressional preference, Democrats led Republicans by 12 points, 47 percent to 35 percent, in voters’ preferences for the U.S. House of Representatives.Video below: Approval of Trump administration’s handling of inflation fallsViews of federal accountability remain negativeThe poll found that many voters continue to hold negative views of the federal government’s accountability and transparency.Compared with 2021, the share of voters who strongly disagree that the federal government has little corruption rose from 57 percent to 73 percent, while the share who strongly disagree that government operations are open and transparent increased from 44 percent to 62 percent.How the poll was conductedFranklin & Marshall College said the poll was conducted June 8-14, 2026, by its Center for Opinion Research.Methodology highlights include:546 registered Pennsylvania voters surveyed233 Democrats226 Republicans87 independentsInterviews conducted by phone and onlineSample error of plus or minus 5.1 percentage pointsThe college said results were weighted by age, gender, education, geography, vote history and party registration.

Pennsylvania voters are increasingly worried about their finances, pessimistic about the state’s direction and more dissatisfied with President Donald Trump’s job performance, according to the June 2026 Franklin & Marshall College Poll.

Video above: WGAL’s Matt Barcaro and Political Analyst Berwood Yost analyze the poll results.

The poll found that 47 percent of registered voters say they are worse off financially than they were a year ago, up from 36 percent in March, while 47 percent say Pennsylvania is on the wrong track compared with 36 percent who say it is headed in the right direction.

Financial anxiety tops voter concerns

According to the poll, the economy remains the top issue facing Pennsylvania voters, with 35 percent naming it as the state’s most important problem.

Economic concerns cited by voters included:

UnemploymentHousing and real estate costsHigher gas pricesRising utility bills

Among voters who identified economic problems as the biggest issue, Democrats were favored over Republicans on handling the economy, 42 percent to 24 percent, according to the poll.

Shapiro leads in governor’s race

The poll found Gov. Josh Shapiro’s job approval rating is evenly split:

48 percent say he is doing an “excellent” or “good” job48 percent say he is doing a “fair” or “poor” job

Support for Shapiro varied by party:

About three in four Democrats rated him positivelyNearly half of independents rated him positivelyJust over a quarter of Republicans rated him positively

In the 2026 governor’s race, the poll found Shapiro leading Republican challenger Stacy Garrity 50 percent to 28 percent.

Video below: Shapiro leads as Pennsylvania voters sour on economy

Broad support for several state policy proposals

The survey found strong support for several state policy ideas, including:

89 percent support limiting access to cell phones in schools72 percent support a state law banning discrimination in employment or housing based on sexual orientation or gender identity71 percent support regulating and taxing skill games70 percent support an independent commission to draw state legislative districts59 percent oppose mid-decade redistricting, now taking place in some statesTrump’s ratings fall sharply

The poll found President Trump’s approval rating dropped significantly since the college’s March survey.

According to the poll:

29 percent say Trump is doing an “excellent” or “good” job71 percent say he is doing a “fair” or “poor” job

That marks a decline from March, when 39 percent gave Trump a positive approval rating.

The poll also found declining support for the Trump administration’s handling of several issues, including:

ImmigrationForeign affairsInflation

Approval of the administration’s handling of inflation fell from 31 percent in October to 17 percent in the June poll.

In congressional preference, Democrats led Republicans by 12 points, 47 percent to 35 percent, in voters’ preferences for the U.S. House of Representatives.

Video below: Approval of Trump administration’s handling of inflation falls

Views of federal accountability remain negative

The poll found that many voters continue to hold negative views of the federal government’s accountability and transparency.

Compared with 2021, the share of voters who strongly disagree that the federal government has little corruption rose from 57 percent to 73 percent, while the share who strongly disagree that government operations are open and transparent increased from 44 percent to 62 percent.

How the poll was conducted

Franklin & Marshall College said the poll was conducted June 8-14, 2026, by its Center for Opinion Research.

Methodology highlights include:

546 registered Pennsylvania voters surveyed233 Democrats226 Republicans87 independentsInterviews conducted by phone and onlineSample error of plus or minus 5.1 percentage points

The college said results were weighted by age, gender, education, geography, vote history and party registration.