With a new Pennsylvania political and economic poll, you really have to dive into its details to get all the info – Tri-State Alert

CHAMBERSBURG – A recent Franklin and Marshall College poll showed that respondents weren’t happy with the economy or President Donald Trump.

The poll also predicted that Josh Shapiro will win the governorship in PA.

The polling size was 546 registered voters.

The sample error is 5.1%.

Pat Ryan of News Talk 103.7FM pointed out, “We do have a statistically reliable sample here. It’s kind of a moving target. I don’t think it’s responsible, in my humble opinion, that you throw out all this information, the media gets all these headlines and buried in there at the end of the story, we asked 546 people about this.”

Attorney Clint Barkdoll said, “This polling stuff is fraught with those kind of concerns, because even if you look at national polls, a national polling sample is often 1,000 people or 1,500 and they extrapolate that out using all kinds of methodology. It’s kind of remarkable. This is Burwood Yost at Franklin and Marshall. The polling size is small, but he’s got a very high rating historically on accuracy of these polls on races.”

In the poll, 89% of these respondents favor a bell to bell cell phone ban in Pennsylvania schools and 71% favor taxing skill gains.

Barkdoll said, “As we say often, those are just overwhelming majorities that you would think school boards or in the state legislature would be moving on.”

The race for PA Governor is the big issue in this poll.

Current Governor Shapiro is taking on PA Treasurer Stacy Garrity in November.

Barkdoll said, “He has Shapiro at 50% Garrity at 28%. That 22 point margin is very consistent with every poll that’s coming out. Shapiro is up by 20 or so points. I keep saying when this happens, though, there’s still time. She has the summer getting into the fall to make up that ground, but she appears to be at an incredible deficit. Interesting, though, that number for Shapiro at 50%, this approval rating has actually ticked down a bit. You may recall earlier in the year there were polls that had his approval at more like 55% and 60%, so that number is a little bit down for him. Trump’s approval in this poll, 29%. That’s an all-time low in this poll, that’s creating some headwinds for Stacy Garrity too.”

Michele Jansen of News Talk 103.7FM noted, “I wish there was a follow-up question, though, for these people. Why do you like Shapiro? Because I’m sure they can’t really give a great answer. What would they say? Oh, he doesn’t say crazy things. Oh, well, his family was attacked. And, of course, everybody feels sympathy for that. Oh, he did I-95. No, he didn’t. That was the federal government. What would they say is the reason that they approve of him?”

Barkdoll agreed, “That would be a great question for Yost to ask.”

There’s also an op-ed in today’s Wall Street Journal about the midterms.

Barkdoll said, “The point of it is that the party who wins may be the one that voters just see as less extreme. The point being, voters are frustrated with everybody, and might end up voting for the candidate they see as less extreme, and I’ve often wondered, is that what is boosting Shapiro? He’s not seen as radical, even though you would be hard pressed to come up with a bunch of agenda or initiatives that he’s implemented. Do people just see him as more normal than some of these other candidates?”