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Philadelphia just experienced one of its warmest springs, and forecasters say the region can likely expect a hotter-than-normal summer.
The average temperature in Philadelphia from March through May was 57.8 degrees Fahrenheit, matching the spring of 1921 as third-warmest on record, according to a WHYY News analysis of weather data from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Northeast Regional Climate Center. NOAA says the temperature forecast for the Philadelphia area during June, July and August is “leaning above” normal as well.
“We have slightly better chances for above-normal temperatures,” said Sarah Johnson, a warning coordination meteorologist at the National Weather Service in Mount Holly, New Jersey. “That does not mean that you can’t have some cold periods in between.”
Globally, a strong El Nino on top of long-term planetary warming is predicted to drive heat and extreme weather into next year.
Johnson said it’s impossible to say exactly what role climate change played in the historically warm weather Philadelphia experienced this spring without significant research.
But this spring’s heat occurred amid a backdrop of steadily rising temperatures, said Muhammad Azhar Ehsan, a climate scientist at the Center for Climate Systems Research at Columbia University. Since 1970, Philadelphia’s average spring and summer temperatures have each risen around 3 degrees Fahrenheit, according to research nonprofit Climate Central. This raises the chance of warmer weather, Ehsan said.
“We see more heat and heat extremes due to that background trend, or climate change,” Ehsan said.