As we’ve done in the past, below are the keys and my prediction of the Pittsburgh Steelers winning (or losing) today’s game. Three things that need to happen for them to end up on the right side of the score and vice versa in their Week 9 game against the Indianapolis Colts.
My Steelers’ prediction is at the bottom.
The Steelers Will Win If…
1. Defense Creates Splash
Creating turnovers is obvious enough. To upset the Colts, it’s going to be required. And sure won’t be easy. Not just because Pittsburgh’s in the middle of its longest takeaway drought since 2022, 13 straight quarters, but because Indianapolis has just four turnovers all season. Three of which came in the team’s lone loss to the Los Angeles Rams.
Beating the Colts without a turnover seems impossible. Pittsburgh needs to steal a possession (or two), shorten the field, and gain an edge that way. That’s how must upsets get pulled off and that’s how this one will, too.
2. Offense Wins A Shootout (And Special Teams Helps Out)
Even if the defense makes plays, the offense has to drive the bus to victory. Pittsburgh isn’t likely to win this game 14-10. A 38-35 win is the better path to victory. One the Steelers aren’t used to doing but the team has played as many 30/30 games (in which the Steelers score and allow 30-plus points) this season they had have in the past three seasons combined. Two this year in a win over the New York Jets and loss to the Cincinnati Bengals.
The offense has to win end-to-end. Big plays, a consistent ground game, taking advantage of the Colts’ weaker cornerbacks even if the group is healthier with Jaylon Jones’ return. Match points for points, big plays for big plays. That’s the ticket. A big punt or kick return would sure go a long way to help the cause, too.
3. Take Away The Pierce Post
Alec Pierce is one of the NFL’s best deep threats. His straight-line speed won’t tell you that but he has a knack for downfield plays. His size, long strides, and tracking all play into his favor. He’s tracking the lead the league in yards per catch in consecutive seasons. If he finishes the year out that way, he’ll be the first NFL player to do so since Flipper Anderson in 1989-1990.
Pierce’s money route are deep posts. Pittsburgh can’t let Pierce get loose for those field-flipping plays.
The Steelers Will Lose If…
1. The Colts’ Warren Is More Impactful
And that’s Tyler, not Jaylen. The battle of the offensive Warren’s could go in the Colts’ favor with their rookie tight end. Not only is Pittsburgh abysmal covering tight ends, Indianapolis does a great job moving Warren around and making him hard to find. Old-school concepts with him getting vertical from a fullback alignment off play-action. Pittsburgh has their hands full.
If Jaylen Warren and the Steelers’ running game can’t get going, it’ll be a long day for Pittsburgh. And likely a third-straight loss.
2. Defensive Eyes Get Lazy
The Colts don’t just have strong talent but pair it with an ace scheme. One that involves plenty of window dressing capable of messing with the defense’s eyes. To open up bigger running lanes for elite back Jonathan Taylor, to gain a step on defenders in the pass game, to make every Steeler question where the ball is really going. Maybe “lazy” is the wrong word but if the Colts are one-step ahead with all its motion and trickery, the defense will look even worse.
3. Offense Can’t Capitalize Where The Colts Hurt
The Colts aren’t perfect. They’re beatable in certain areas. Chiefly, defensive situational football. Indianapolis ranks just 30th in third down defense and that’s not just a garbage time stat. The Colts are struggling nearly as much before the score gets out of hands. And the Colts are just 19th in red zone defense.
Pittsburgh must exploit those areas and are capable in their own right. The Steelers are 15th on third down and 3rd in the red zone. Continue to hammer away there and this will be a close game down the stretch.
Prediction
Colts: 34
Steelers: 24
Season Prediction Record
2-5