If you want evidence of Democrats pulling out all the stops to win in November, just look to Pennsylvania. It’s not just Hope Springs from Field PAC [website] volunteers, it’s basically everywhere. The fact that there are state offices on the ballot helps.
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Just as important, the various elements are working together. None of this civil war stuff. Democrats are unified behind winning, at all levels. It makes a difference.
Of note is the fact that Democrats won another special election here.
Democrat Brandon Dukes was declared the winner of the Pennsylvania state House race Thursday afternoon, according to the Associated Press. Trump won the district by 18 percentage points in 2024, and Republicans have held the state seat for decades.
There’s no mystery in this.
A recent Washington Post analysis found that Democratic turnout in primaries has been considerably higher than Republican turnout and that the party’s voters have been showing up in greater numbers even in races that are not hotly contested or likely to result in competitive general elections.
Another examination, in the Substack newsletter “The Downballot,” which analyzes election results, found that Democrats were overperforming Kamala Harris’s 2024 vote share by an average of 12.5 percentage points in 110 special elections since January 2025. [Source: WashPost]
It starts at the top of the ticket.
Shapiro, widely seen as a strong contender for a 2028 presidential bid, has aimed to use Pennsylvania’s elections to show that he can push Democrats across the finish line in tough races. That skill could prove especially valuable in Pennsylvania, an essential battleground state in presidential elections.
And the historic magnitude of this election.
This year, Pennsylvania holds four of the House races that Democrats consider to be among their top opportunities for flipping Republican-heldseats. That’s more competitive races than in any other state, according to the House Democrats’ campaign operation.
President Donald Trump carried three of those districts in 2024. But in the 2022 gubernatorial election, Shapiro, then the state’s attorney general, won all four by double digits against a far-right opponent.
It’s not just Hope Springs volunteers, but also voters at their doors, where you can hear people say, this election will be decided in Pennsylvania.
Keystone State Democrats are also hoping to flip the state Senate, where Republicans have a 27-23 majority, while also maintaining their narrow hold on the House. If they can do it, they would be looking at their first unified hold on state government in more than three decades.
[…]
Having seen his state vote twice for Trump, in 2016 and 2024, Shapiro is working to build up the Democratic infrastructure. He recently unveiled a multimillion-dollar effort that party officials say is the largest coordinated midterm operation in the state’s history. It boasts having opened 27 offices across the state and hiring nearly 100 full-time organizers.
The governor has also addressed one of the more worrisome trends for Pennsylvania Democrats: Their voter registration advantage over Republicans had dropped precipitously over recent election cycles.
Between 2020 and 2024, the registration gap between the two parties was cut by more than half, leaving Democrats with an edge of 325,000, downfrom 686,000. It was a warning sign that Trump was going to win the state and its 19 electoral votes.
This year, with the midterms approaching, the numbers are starting to turn around; Democrats have added nearly 25,500 to the registration rolls, while Republican numbers have dropped by more than 4,500, according to voter registration data analyzed by PennLive.com.
Retooling and professionalizing the party is a project that Shapiro began almost a year ago, he said, and now, “I’m investing millions of dollars in helping elevate other Democrats on the ballot, spending my time campaigning for people like Bob Brooks and others.”
If all of this works as he hopes, it might be the foundation for a presidential campaign. Unknowable at this point, however, is whether the Democratic base in 2028 will be looking for a Mr. Fix-It whose appeal stretches across party lines, or will move further leftward in its fury at the establishment.
Hope Springs has been targeting PA-01, PA-07, PA-08, PA-10 and PA-17. PA-08 has been changed from Leaning-R to a Toss-Up district, joining PA-07 and PA-10 in that designation. PA-01 is well within the range Democrats have been winning this year. It’s a target-rich environment.
Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball moved PA-08 from Leans Republican to Toss-Up today. “Ultimately, the better Democratic targets in Pennsylvania may be Reps. Ryan Mackenzie (R, PA-7) and Scott Perry (R, PA-10) in a pair of other Toss-up contests, but PA-8 belongs in that category for now too.” [source: ibid]
There’s no U.S. Senate election this year, and the big media focus is on the state elections. Our focus, of course, is winning a majority in the U.S. House. On Saturday, 1,371 volunteers come out to canvass in these five Congressional districts, with a special emphasis on the even-numbered state Senate districts within. Volunteers knocked on 99,817 doors. They talked to 8,065 voters and had in-depth conversations with 5,161 of them, respectively, guided by our Issues Questionnaire.
Hope Springs from Field PAC is back knocking on doors this cycle. We continue to target Democrats and unaffiliated voters with our systematic approach that reminds them not only that Democrats care, but that Democrats are determined to deliver the best, most affordable government possible to all Americans. The voters we talk to continue to tell us they come away more invested in governance and feel more favorably towards Democrats in general because of our approach.
Obviously, we rely on grassroots support, so if you support field/grassroots organizing, voter registration (and follow-up) and our efforts to protect our voters, we would certainly appreciate your support:
https://secure.actblue.com/donate/UNRIGtheMidterms
Hope Springs from Field understands that volunteer to voter personal interactions are critical. Knocking on doors has repeatedly been found to be the most successful tactic to get voters to cast a ballot and that is the goal of what we do.
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Yes, we really need your help here! Our printer’s bills are — like most things — much higher than we had anticipated for the year. Adding extra states did not help the budget!
We’ve added two things to our questionnaire, both of them driven by president felon’s insistence on the Save Act. These are just in case that thing passes so we can protect our voters for November.
Other than that, the Issues Surveys haven’t really changed. Voters like to tell us what is important to them!
On August 15th, the Price of Fuel was was the Number 1 issue for the voters we talked to. Several voters specifically mentioned diesel. The Economy was second and Health Care Concerns was third on Saturday.
1% of the voters we talked to had a favorable impression of the job Trump was doing, while 66% disapproved. For this canvass, we knocked on more unaffiliated than Democratic doors, about 60/38, depending on the walk list.
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2% of the voters who responded Approved of the job their Republican incumbent Member of Congress was doing while 64% expressed Disapproval. The PA-17 numbers were not included here (it’s confusing). 52% approved of what Gov. Shapiro was doing, 4% disapproved.
Hope Springs volunteers registered 3 new voters and re-registered 19 voters on Saturday, who mainly updated their addresses.
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308 voters filled out Constituent Service Requests. We send completed CSRs to Democratic elected officials responsible for the requested functions, but if the appropriate office is held by a Republican, we still send it along. For Democrats, though, we encourage them to reach out immediately to the voter who filled out the Constituent Service Request forms and let them know they are working on the issue. This credit-taking is enormously valuable to the Democratic office-holder.
5 voters filled out Incident Reports. Incident Reports are used to plan Election Protection activities, and will be combined with other, historical incidents and handed over to District and State Attorneys, Attorney Generals and the DoJ Civil Rights Division right before Election Day as a precaution against Election Day Incidents in November. Past polling place activity is a predictor of future voter intimidation or suppression activity.
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We knock on the doors of Democratic and Independent voters and use a voter-driven approach to guide them through the Issues Survey, the CSR and Incident Report. We record questions voters raise with a Q(uestion)-slip and record other relevant observations on an Observations form. Q-slips are sent to the relevant Democrat to respond to and Observations are entered into VAN. At every door, we leave a piece of “show the flag” lit, something that tells them we were there and hopefully reinforces the Democratic brand. The lit focuses on the things voters told us were important to them last fall, aiming to appeal to every voter.
But the main focus of our canvassing is the Issues Survey, asking voters for their input and concerns. Voter responses to the questionnaire are entered into VAN and made available to all Democratic candidates who use VAN in the state after the primary. Creating this kind of data isn’t done with a specific goal in mind but has the purpose of engaging voters and creating a dataset that any Democratic candidate can use in opposition to a Republican.
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Hope Springs has targeted states that have competitive Senate races and/or Congressional Races in 2026. There is a lot of work to be done! Especially since we have had to expand the map this year.
By starting early, and aiming towards super-compliance with some really, really onerous new voter regulations, Hope Springs from Field seeks to undermine that strategy, while informing voters about the new laws and regulations aimed at them and helping them to check their current voter registration status, if they cannot access it online themselves.
Our biggest expense is Printing the Walk Lit that we leave at every door. Access to the Voter File is our second largest cost. But it is also a fixed cost. That won’t change as we raise and spend more money. Paying the fees for ActBlue is the smallest of our monthly costs.
Hope Springs is a seat-of-the-pants grassroots-driven operation. We don’t have employees (yet) but we realize that to formalize and professionalize this effort that will have to change eventually.
Hope Springs has been called “the most comprehensive, organized grassroots voter contact project out there right now. It is truly astonishing that it is grassroots-based!” Not sure why it is “astonishing,” but i probably have more faith in grassroots or self-organized efforts because of my experience with Barack Obama’s early days in 2007.
No other Democratically-aligned org has been methodically trying to circumvent MAGA efforts to rig the House Midterm elections. And we need your help to continue.
If you are able to support Hope Springs from Field’s efforts to protect Democratic voters, especially in minority communities, expand the electorate, and believe in grassroots efforts to increase voter participation and election protection, we would appreciate your support:
https://secure.actblue.com/donate/UNRIGtheMidterms
If you would rather send a check, you can follow that link for our mailing address at the bottom of the page. Thank you for your support. This work depends upon you!