Kevin Hardwick, the only announced candidate, is already polling. Other potential Democratic candidates are maneuvering, as are Republicans.


News and analysis by Geoff Kelly, Investigative Post’s political reporter

Get more Investigative Post reporting in your Google results.

A few weeks ago Erie County Comptroller Kevin Hardwick became the first candidate to announce publicly, if not loudly, his intention to run for Erie County executive next year.

He did so in the middle of a guest spot on WBEN’s Hardline, the Sunday morning politics talk show he used to host before he became a county legislator in 2009.

Last week Hardwick also became the first to put a poll in the field — a 21-question text survey designed to see how he sizes up against other Democrats who have their eyes on the job.

The first two questions establish whether respondents approve or disapprove of President Donald Trump’s job performance, which party they belong to, and whether they “generally” vote in primary elections.

Question 3 asks voters to choose between three Democratic candidates for county executive: Hardwick, Deputy County Executive Lisa Chimera and Assembly Member Pat Burke.

Question 4 takes Chimera out of that mix and substitutes the name of Amherst Town Supervisor Shawn Lavin, whose day job is deputy commissioner of personnel for the county.

Hardwick speaks at a recent press conference.

Let’s pause here for some context on that substitution. 

Erie County Executive Mark Poloncarz is not seeking a fifth term next year. Chimera and Hardwick have been the leading candidates for the Democratic nomination to succeed him, with Burke a dark horse looking for a lane to open up, should party leaders remain split between those two. Poloncarz has advocated for Chimera, a former county legislator and Town of Tonawanda board member. In the last year she has made more public appearances on his behalf and featured in the executive office’s press releases, all with the intention of raising her public profile. Erie County Democratic Committee Chair Jeremy Zellner, a Poloncarz ally, has promoted her candidacy, too. 

However, Zellner’s loss in the June primary for a state senate seat raised questions not only about his future as chair, but the efficacy of ECDC’s campaign machine and the value of its endorsement. Chimera, I’ve been told, has since been trying to separate herself from Zellner and Poloncarz, worried that being labeled the party’s favored candidate could reduce, rather than enhance, her prospects with voters.

In response, Zellner — who has indicated that, despite the party’s unrest, he’d like to stick around as chair through next year’s county executive race — began to float the idea of Lavin as the party’s nominee. 

Now back to the poll.

 

Respondents are asked demographic questions including gender, age, ethnicity, education, income, and what part of the county they live in. They are asked whether they think Erie County is on the right track and if its government is doing a good job. 

How do they feel about Hardwick’s job performance? How about Poloncarz’s? What do they think of Chimera? Burke? Lavin? Do they even know their names?

They are also asked to rank Hardwick individually against Chimera and Lavin.

With nine months before the Democratic primary, it’s early in the game for Hardwick’s campaign to field a poll like this. Only Hardwick, who’s been elected comptroller twice, has countywide name recognition, and the poll’s results are likely to demonstrate that. 

Indeed that may be the point of the exercise. Democratic leaders are ever eager to avoid primaries in which candidates spend donors’ money to drag each other before facing a Republican in the general election. Hardwick may want to show them he’s got the highest profile. The questions determining respondents’ political leanings may be intended to help Hardwick — a Republican-turned-Democrat — argue he’s got crossover appeal, as well.

I asked Hardwick for the results; he said he hadn’t seen them yet and did not expect to for a couple weeks. If he had the numbers and shared them, he’d have been obligated under state election law to publish the results and methodology of the poll.

Subscribe to our free weekly newsletters

Things are no less settled on the Republican side of the ballot. Republicans may dream of a candidate like Chris Jacobs — former county clerk, state senator and congressman with cross-party support and boatloads of family money — coming out of political retirement. But the last time I spoke with Jacobs, he didn’t sound interested.

Erie County Clerk Mickey Kearns, should he win reelection this fall, will surely make a push for the Republican nomination, but he’s been damaged by scathing audits from Hardwick’s office, one of which discovered embezzlement of public funds by a now-former, now-imprisoned employee. Plus, many GOP leaders don’t trust Kearns, who runs on their line but remains a registered Democrat. 

Erie County Sheriff John Garcia has some public relations problems, too, courtesy of his former narcotics chief, D.J. Granville. 

Other names I’ve heard include businessman A.J. Baynes and former state senator and county lawmaker Edward Rath III, who’s been out of elected office for four years. 

Also  Erie County Legislator Frank Todaro of Lancaster, who has the money to self-fund a campaign but little name recognition outside his suburban district.

Whoever is elected next year will serve a three-year term, as local elections are being moved to even years, courtesy of a state law adopted in 2023. 

Republicans currently are suing for a second time to prevent that change. A federal judge in June dismissed the party’s first lawsuit. Common opinion has it that the higher turnout generated during even-year elections — when federal and statewide offices are on the ballot — tends to favor Democrats. 

There are 270,880 registered Democrats in the county, according to the board of elections, and 161,038 Republicans. Another 193,480 voters belong to minor parties or no party at all.

 

posted 14 minutes ago – September 9, 2026