The Grade 1, $1 million Pennsylvania Derby is the final major stakes race of the season going two turns on dirt and restricted to 3-year-olds. The nine-furlong affair brings together a deep and contentious field to Parx. Grade 1 winner Further Ado is the morning line favorite, but graded stakes winners The Puma, Iron Honor and Zihnal will be just three of his main foes among a salty group of 11 on Saturday.
First run in 1979, notable winners of the Pennsylvania Derby include Smarten, Summing, Dixieland Band, Skip Trial, Broad Brush, Afleet, Summer Squall, Frisk Me Now, Macho Uno, Harlan’s Holiday, To Honor and Serve, Will Take Charge, Bayern, Frosted, McKinzie, West Coast, Hot Rod Charlie, Taiba, Seize the Grey and Baeza.
1. Zihnal (8-1) – Jonathan Thomas/John Velazquez
Why he wins:
(Brian) Improving with each start, it was not the perfect trip for him in the Indiana Derby. His dominant win in West Virginia should give him a shot of confidence as he goes after his biggest race yet.
(Matt) That was the best race of his career when he showed more speed in the West Virginia Derby (G3) after trainer Jonathan Thomas ran him with blinkers for the first time.
Why he loses:
(Brian) The gelding hasn’t beaten much in his two wins and now he faces a field full of graded stakes quality.
(Matt) He will face plenty of quality speed on Saturday at Parx and is unlikely to get loose on the lead.
2. Iron Honor (5-1) – Chad Brown/Jose Ortiz
Why he wins:
(Brian) He edged out The Puma in the Haskell and now picks up the nation’s leading rider. He’s run well against good fields; it could be time for him to break through as he adds blinkers on Saturday.
(Matt) Iron Honor was a winner on the Kentucky Derby trail and ran a great race to be second in a full field in the Preakness but he just could not catch Napoleon Solo. To his credit, he was well clear of the rest of that field.
Why he loses:
(Brian) His closing kick in each of his last three races leaves something to be desired. He will need to do better if he is to come out on top against this field.
(Matt) His two career victories were at six furlongs and a mile so maybe he is better suited to races around one turn.
3. Our Moneyman (8-1) – Bret Calhoun/Manny Franco
Why he wins:
(Brian) The Louisiana-bred ran a bang-up race last time in the Indiana Derby (G3) against Leading Change; a similar effort here could get the job done. New rider Manny Franco has won plenty of big races of late.
(Matt) The change to Saratoga’s leading jockey is significant since he lost the Indiana Derby by a neck after getting squeezed back at the start and then the rider dropped the crop mid-stretch.
Why he loses:
(Brian) He still needs to prove that he can beat top level horses. Others may have a higher ceiling.
(Matt) His two stakes wins were against state-breds and he came up short in his last three starts against open company.
4. Igniter (8-1) – Rick Dutrow/Luis Saez
Why he wins:
(Brian) His sharp win in the Ellis Park Derby gives hope that he is ready to tackle a Grade 1 field.
(Matt) Igniter found the winner’s circle in half of his starts and trainer Rick Dutrow is one of three trainers in the field that have won the Pennsylvnia Derby in the past.
Why he loses:
(Brian) What he beat at Ellis Park is a far cry from the class in this field. He has come up well short each time he has faced quality horses in the past.
(Matt) The Ellis Derby had a field of five and he was able to get to the front easily and clear the field. The only other time he ran nine furlongs was in the Remsen (G2) against a quality field and he was never in contention.
5. Talk to Me Jimmy (12-1) – Rudy Rodriguez/Ruben Silvera
Why he wins:
(Brian) The unheralded New York-bred has been a factor in most of his races and his good early speed must be respected.
(Matt) He won at the nine-furlong distance at Aqueduct in the Withers by 11 lengths and his only bad race from seven starts was in the Wood Memorial (G2).
Why he loses:
(Brian) There is speed in this field, as well as quality. That’s a combination that will likely prove a bit too much for this consistent runner.
(Matt) Two of his three victories were against state-breds and he looks like another one who will have a lot of company on the front-end.
6. The Puma (4-1) – Gustavo Delgado/Javier Castellano
Why he wins:
(Brian) After four months away, he has returned with two solid races against strong fields. Hampered by a wide trip in the Travers, he should appreciate the cut back in distance in his third start off the layoff.
(Matt) He made a splash on the Derby trail with his maiden-breaking victory in Tampa Derby (G3) followed by a nose loss in the Florida Derby (G1).
Why he loses:
(Brian) As many good races as he has run already in his career, he has only found the winner’s circle one time.
(Matt) The move to add blinkers after the pair of fourth-place finishes seems like an act of desperation.
7. Further Ado (2-1) – Brad Cox/Flavien Prat
Why he wins:
(Brian) A sloppy track may have been the reason for his disappointing effort in the Haskell. He fits with these horses and Prat should give him every chance to prove himself at the top of the lane.
(Matt) Further Ado is the only Grade 1 winner and millionaire in the field. He had an impressive run on the Derby trail with two victories and a close second.
Why he loses:
(Brian) We are beginning to see a pattern of a horse looking great when things go his way, but unable to close the deal when things get tough.
(Matt) All four of his victories were in Kentucky and he is another one whose best races were pressing the pace.
8. Freedom’s Echo (20-1) – Guadalupe Preciado/tbd
Why he wins:
(Brian) He is lightly raced and this is his home track. I don’t think it adds up to mean much in this race, but I guess stranger things have happened.
(Matt) Trainer Preciado has been known to spring an upset on occasion and a win in this spot would be a big one.
Why he loses:
(Brian) In his two previous stakes tries, he was done by the time they straightened out, and this one is much tougher.
(Matt) He got his first victory in a $40,000 maiden claimer and has never run in a race with a field size more than six.
9. Sassmaster (10-1) – Todd Pletcher/Tyler Gaffalione
Why he wins:
(Brian) He is a lightly raced colt with nice breeding and coming from a strong barn. His two races this year give every indication that he is a stakes level colt. He’s won at the distance.
(Matt) He has that quality Stonestreet breeding and he won both of his race this year going around two turns.
Why he loses:
(Brian) Prat chose the favorite, which is no surprise. This will be a significant bump up in class for the developing colt.
(Matt) Making a stakes debut in a large Grade 1 field is always a very tough task.
10. Micanopy (15-1) – Michael Simone/Paco Lopez
Why he wins:
(Brian) In his first try over the track, he finished nicely to earn his first stakes victory. Paco Lopez leads the nation in wins.
(Matt) He climbed the ladder in his last five starts going from a low-level N2L claimer to winning the Smarty Jones.
Why he loses:
(Brian) The Smarty Jones looks weak when compared to all the quality that is shipping in for this Grade 1 race.
(Matt) In April he was claimed for an $8,000 tag at Tampa.
11. Ponder and Dream (20-1) – Butch Reid/Mychel Sanchez
Why he wins:
(Brian) A stakes winner over the track, he will look to use his speed to be involved right from the start.
(Matt) The Pennsylvania-bred has plenty of experience at Parx and is in the best form of his career winning a state-bred stakes by almost 15 lengths and then a second in the Smarty Jones.
Why he loses:
(Brian) There is too much speed and quality here to expect this long shot to be around in the late stages.
(Matt) Even if somehow he can get to the lead from the far outside he will have to stretch out to nine furlongs for the first time.
