The Cincinnati Bengals travel to face the Pittsburgh Steelers on Sunday, September 27, 2026, with kickoff set for 1:00 PM EDT at Acrisure Stadium. Dimers’ machine-learning models project a 24-20 Bengals win, with the spread sitting at Bengals -2.5.

A near coin-flip spread

Dimers has Cincinnati covering the -2.5 spread at a 54.6% clip (53¢ on Polymarket) against a 45.4% probability for Pittsburgh (54¢ on Polymarket) — one of the tighter spread reads of the week, and a sign the model sees this as a close game up front even with Cincinnati favored on the road.

Burrow projects for a big day, Rodgers settles in with Pittsburgh

Joe Burrow is projected for 260 passing yards, while Aaron Rodgers, now under center in Pittsburgh, projects for 218 yards of his own. On the ground, Chase Brown leads Cincinnati’s backfield with a 49.0% anytime-touchdown probability and 68 projected rushing yards, while Pittsburgh’s work is split between Jaylen Warren (29.2%, 51 yards) and Rico Dowdle (30.6%, 48 yards) in more of a committee approach.

Cincinnati’s passing attack is spread fairly evenly at the top, with Tee Higgins (46.8%, 59 yards) and Ja’Marr Chase (46.2%, 70 yards) both carrying similar touchdown probabilities. For Pittsburgh, DK Metcalf is the clear top target, projected for 56 yards and a 41.6% anytime-touchdown probability, well ahead of Roman Wilson (27.7%) and Pat Freiermuth (27.3%).

Game detailsTeams: Cincinnati Bengals at Pittsburgh SteelersDate: Sunday, September 27, 2026Time: 1:00 PM EDTVenue: Acrisure Stadium, Pittsburgh, PennsylvaniaCompetition: NFL Week 3Dimers spread probabilitiesTeamCover ProbabilityPriceCincinnati Bengals (-2.5)54.6%53¢Pittsburgh Steelers (+2.5)45.4%54¢

Predicted score: Bengals 24, Steelers 20

Anytime touchdown probabilitiesBengalsProbabilitySteelersProbabilityChase Brown49.0%DK Metcalf41.6%Tee Higgins46.8%Rico Dowdle30.6%Ja’Marr Chase46.2%Jaylen Warren29.2%Samaje Perine19.3%Roman Wilson27.7%Andrei Iosivas17.1%Pat Freiermuth27.3%NFL Prediction market sign-up bonuses

Bengals and Texans fans across the US can use prediction markets to trade on the NFL opener as an alternative to standard betting. Here are the top options and available promo codes for new users:

PlatformNFL Eligible?September Sign-Up BonusVerified Promo CodesPolymarketYes$50CUSE, MASS, OREGON, SILIVEKalshiYes$25SYRACUSE, OREGONLIVE1, MASSLIVE1, SILIVEBottom line for Bengals vs. Steelers

With the spread pricing this close to even, Cincinnati’s slight edge looks like it comes down to its passing game producing more consistently than Pittsburgh’s split backfield can answer. Chase Brown’s dual-threat role as both a runner and receiver stands out as the single most heavily weighted touchdown threat on either roster heading into Week 3.

These projections reflect Dimers’ latest simulations and market data at the time of publication and are subject to change as the week progresses.

Win probabilities and odds reflect model projections and market data at the time of writing and are subject to change. All times listed are EDT.

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