Pennsylvania Democrats are back with another crazy idea just in time for election season: a government-run, single-payer health-care scam that would raise your taxes, cut private insurance, and put bureaucrats in charge of everyday Pennsylvanians’ health-care decisions.
Pennsylvania House Rep. Greg Scott and Democratic Socialist State Sen. Nikil Saval have introduced companion bills House Bill 2763 and Senate Bill 1465, respectively. If passed, these bills would establish a “Medicare-for-All” system, funded with the biggest tax hike in Pennsylvania history. The bill already has support from more than 30 legislative Democrats across the state.
But we don’t need to implement these delusional proposals to see how this policy will play out. Three other states have already tried — and all three failed miserably.
Let’s start with Vermont, arguably the bluest state in the country and about as friendly a testing ground for socialized health care as America can offer. In 2011, then-Gov. Peter Shumlin ran and won on a platform that promised a Medicare-for-All system. However, when his team finally ran the numbers, they found the plan in its first year would cost $5 billion, roughly the same amount as the state’s entire budget, and require a 151 percent increase in state taxes. Shumlin abandoned the costly project, calling the cost of his own proposal “enormous” and “detrimental to Vermonters.”
Strike one.
Next came Colorado, where voters in 2016 faced a constitutional amendment that proposed a similar universal health-care system. Initial estimates pegged Colorado’s program with a $36-billion-per-year price tag. The vote wasn’t even close: The amendment failed by nearly 60 points, with no counties — none, zero, zilch — voting in favor. This is also the same state where Bernie Sanders, the grandfather of all Medicare-for-All plans, soundly defeated Hillary Clinton by 18 points in the 2016 Democratic primary.
Strike two.
Finally, Massachusetts has batted around the single-payer idea for decades. Yet despite the state’s strong progressive lean, nothing has progressed legislatively. In fact, no such plan has even made it out of a committee vote. And it’s most likely because most proposals would require the state to increase its budget by at least 50 percent.
Strike three. You’re out.
Time and again, socialized health-care plans have already struck out across the United States, even in places where such radical ideas would seem like a safe bet. If single-payer health care can’t win in safely blue states, what chance does it stand in purple Pennsylvania? Vermont, Colorado, and Massachusetts offer cautionary tales to avoid, not blueprints to follow. This explains why the party’s legislative leadership, House Majority Leader Matt Bradford and Senate Minority Leader Jay Costa, is unlikely to throw their support behind the proposals.
The math doesn’t change when it crosses state lines. Every serious estimate of state-based single-payer systems lands in the same place: massive tax increases already layered on top of what families owe in federal, state, and local taxes. The same is true in Pennsylvania: Pennsylvania Democrats’ single-payer proposal would cost nearly $70 billion in the first year, more than doubling the state budget and requiring a significant tax hike to pay for it.
To make matters worse, we cannot even afford our current health-care obligations to the most vulnerable. Pennsylvanian taxpayers already face a $5 billion structural deficit, which has forced us to delay nearly $3 billion in Medicaid payments. If left unaddressed, Pennsylvanians will likely face “a broad-based tax increase,” according to the state’s Independent Fiscal Office.
And this is for a system that would lower quality of care. Both health-care bills would abolish private health insurance in the commonwealth. This guarantees rationed care, longer waiting times, less innovation, and decreased care quality — all the well-documented trade-offs made by every county that has gone down this road.
Putting government bureaucrats in charge of health care won’t make your health care more affordable or more accessible in Pennsylvania. Instead, we can address the real cost drivers — hospital pricing, doctor shortages, and dwindling options — without massive tax increases, losing your doctor, or longer hospital wait times. State lawmakers must broaden price-transparency laws, allow renewable short-term insurance plans, grant full-practice authority to nurse practitioners, and reform medical-licensing requirements.
You don’t need a crystal ball to see how a single-payer system will fail in Pennsylvania. Blue states have already shown us the price tag, and Harrisburg’s version is no different — just bigger and more expensive for a state that can’t balance its books as it is. Pennsylvania Democrats should drop the fantasy, get serious about what genuinely drives up medical bills, and empower Pennsylvanians by removing the government barriers to affordable care.
Kevin Kane is the director of legislative strategy for the Commonwealth Foundation, Pennsylvania’s free-market think tank.