This November, Lehigh Valley voters have one of the best chances in years to change the balance of power in Harrisburg.

There are an unusually high number of contested elections, with 10 of the 11 state House and Senate seats up for grabs. Locally, only Rep. Jeanne McNeill, a Democrat representing the 133rd District, is running unopposed.

Currently, Republicans hold a majority in the Senate with 27 seats to Democrats’ 23. Democrats hold a slight edge in the House of Representatives, with 102 seats to the GOP’s 101.

Experts say the races in the 137th and 187th House districts, and the Senate’s 16th and 14th, are among the most competitive.

“If you look back at the most recent state legislative elections in the Lehigh Valley, these four districts have provided some of the more competitive battles,” said Christopher P. Borick, a professor of political science at Lehigh University.

Another close race is the 131st House district, where a recent poll showed the candidates in a dead heat less than a month before the election.

Here are the contests to watch, and why:

State House races
137th District

Republican Rep. Joseph Emrick vs. Democrat Jeffrey Warren

The district includes Bethlehem (Northampton County portion), Lower Nazareth and Upper Nazareth Townships; parts of Palmer Township and Hanover Township, Northampton County; Nazareth and Tatamy.

Why watch: “Emrick has won narrow victories in the last two elections, and in this difficult cycle for Republicans, he may face his greatest challenge,” Borick said.

The national Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee has targeted the 137th as a district to flip. Emrick, a former Upper Nazareth Township supervisor and history teacher, has represented the district since 2011 and is seeking his ninth term in Harrisburg. Gov. Josh Shapiro has endorsed Warren, a Northampton County commissioner.

187th District

Republican Rep. Gary Day vs. Democrat Rachel Marie Guynh-Cuevas

The Lehigh County district includes Heidelberg, Lower Macungie, Lynn, Washington and Weisenberg townships; part of Upper Macungie Township; Alburtis and Macungie.

Why watch: “Gary Day carried the district by a comfortable 10-point margin in 2024 but with heavy headwinds facing Republicans, this race looks more competitive this year,” Borick said.

Day, the incumbent, was first elected in 2008 and served until 2022, when he lost the seat to fellow Republican state Rep. Ryan Mackenzie when redistricting pitted them against each. Day returned in 2024, when Mackenzie was elected to Congress, and was uncontested in the primary. Day has an advantage with name recognition, pollsters say, but President Donald Trump’s dismal performance ratings are dragging down fellow Republicans, and could negatively affect Day’s chances at the polls.

131st District

Republican Rep. Milou Mackenzie vs. Democrat Meriam Sabih

The district spans parts of Lehigh, Montgomery, and Northampton counties, including Lower Milford, Salisbury,  Upper Milford and Upper Saucon townships, Coopersburg and Emmaus.

Why watch: A recent State Navigate poll showed the candidates in a dead heat, with each receiving 47% of the votes and just 6% undecided. The election is a rematch of 2024, when Mackenzie, now in her third term, bested Sabih with 58% of the vote.

State Senate
14th District

Democratic Sen. Nick Miller vs. Republican Omy Maldonado

The district covers parts of Allentown and South Whitehall Township; Allen, Bushkill, East Allen, Hanover (Lehigh), Hanover (Northampton), Lehigh, Moore, Salisbury and Whitehall townships; Bath, Catasauqua, Chapman, Coplay, Emmaus, Fountain Hill, North Catasauqua, Northampton and Walnutport.

Why watch: State voter registration data gives Democrats a 12-point edge in the 14th, and Miller far surpassed Maldonado in fundraising leading up to the primary. As of June 8, Miller had $646,700 in cash on hand versus Maldonado’s $1,200.

Yet it’s still considered an opportunity for Republicans, Borick said.

“The Republicans’ best opportunity to unseat a Democratic incumbent in the Lehigh Valley is probably in the 14th Senate District,” Borick said. “In 2022, it was a competitive race with Nick Miller winning by seven points. In a better cycle for Republicans, this is a seat that they may be able to make a run at flipping, but in this cycle I think it is much more of a reach.”

16th District

Republican Sen. Jarrett Coleman vs. Mark Pinsley

The district encompasses parts of Allentown and South Whitehall Township; Heidelberg, Lower Macungie, Lower Milford, Lowhill, Lynn, North Whitehall Upper Macungie, Upper Milford, Upper Saucon, Washington and Weisenberg townships; Alburtis, Coopersburg, Macungie and Slatington. In Bucks County, Bedminster, Bridgeton, Durham, East Rockhill, Haycock, Hilltown, Milford, Nockamixon, Richland, Springfield, Tinicum and West Rockhill townships; Dublin, Perkasie, Quakertown, Richlandtown, Riegelsville, Sellersville, Silverdale, Telford and Trumbauersville.

Why watch: Another rematch, and another race where pollsters say Trump’s approval ratings matter. Last month, the nonprofit State Navigate surveyed 1,031 likely voters in the district and 47% of respondents said they planned to vote for Pinsley, Lehigh County’s controller, while 46% chose Coleman, the incumbent, and 7% were still undecided.

In 2022, Pinsley lost by 10,500 votes to Coleman, then a Parkland School Board member.

“Coleman had a comfortable eight-point win in that race but this time around the path is more arduous,” Borick said.