The Philadelphia Flyers made it known that their rebuild was over when they signed Leo Carlsson to a ludicrous offer sheet (which was ultimately matched) over the summer, but their play so far indicates otherwise.
Through seven games, the Flyers are 0-5-2. As ugly as the record is, the underlying numbers are even worse.
At five-on-five, the Flyers are last in both expected goals share and expected goals against per 60 minutes and second-to-last in expected goals for. Philadelphia is also dead last in goals per 60 minutes at five-on-five with just 0.91, and the Flyers have a goals-for percentage of 20 percent. They’re 31st in shot attempts and dead last in shot attempts against. The Flyers have only finished one game this year with an expected goals share above 36 percent. At all strengths, they’ve been outscored 28-8.
Say what you want about Flyers head coach Rick Tocchet and his preferred style of play, but it worked last year. The Flyers were one of the best defensive teams in the league at five-on-five, ranking in the top five in both expected goals against per 60 minutes and actual goals against per 60 minutes. They would’ve fared even better in the latter with actual goaltending behind Dan Vladar. The Flyers certainly had their offensive shortcomings, but they were seventh in the league in expected goals share overall, which usually indicates that you’re, you know, a pretty good team.
All of that helped the Flyers improve by 22 points from the year before and get them back into the playoffs for the first time since 2020. Philadelphia knocked out in-state rival Pittsburgh in the first round, but a second-round sweep at the hands of Carolina was a reminder that the Flyers still had a long way to go before becoming contenders. However, with a pair of budding young stars in Matvei Michkov and Porter Martone, the Flyers were poised to build off last year’s success.
As previously mentioned, that hasn’t happened. Even worse, Michkov and Martone haven’t taken the next step yet. Granted, it’s only been seven games, but the early results haven’t been very encouraging. Plus, when you’re playing this poorly as a team, you’re not exactly creating an ideal environment to develop young players in.
The most glaring problem is that, for two players who are the deciding factor on whether or not the Flyers’ rebuild will work, Tocchet hasn’t treated them as such. Of the 15 forwards that have played at least three games for the Flyers, Martone is eighth in time on ice per game at five-on-five, and Michkov is 11th. Have they been phenomenal in those minutes? Not really, but nobody has been for Philly. That Martone is third on the team in expected goals percentage at a measly 39 percent is telling on where the Flyers are at right now.
Michkov has gotten more time on the power play, but that is its own mess. The Flyers had the worst power play in the league last year, and they’ve picked up from where they’ve left off. Philadelphia’s power play has converted on under 10 percent of its opportunities, and the Flyers have just two goals with the man advantage so far this year. Those two goals have been scored by Martone and Michkov, but Martone has been stapled to the second power play unit for some reason.
Goaltending has been a mixed bag — Joseph Woll has played well, while Dan Vladar has struggled. But the sample sizes are so small that it’s not really worth getting too into it right now, and there are obviously much bigger problems elsewhere.
It’s one thing to start the season slow, but it’s another thing to be this bad. As JFresh pointed out on Twitter, the Flyers are off to a historically bad start. The infamous 2023-24 San Jose Sharks, who were blatantly tanking for Macklin Celebrini and finished the year with 47 points, had an eerily similar start. That Sharks team had a 33.4 percent expected goals share at five-on-five and a 21.7 goals-for percentage through seven games, which isn’t far off from where the Flyers currently are. This Flyers roster is a lot better than both those Sharks and this year’s results, and last year was proof. Making the playoffs last year wasn’t a fluke.
When a team underperforms to this degree, it’s really easy to start pointing the fingers at the coach, especially considering that Tocchet keeps getting coaching jobs despite not exactly having a ton of success. Tocchet has surpassed the 90-point mark just twice in 10 seasons before this year, though a lot of the teams he has coached weren’t exactly blessed with talent. It’s also hard to argue that he didn’t get the most out of the Flyers last year.
On the other hand, Clayton Keller and Nick Schmaltz saw their careers take off after Tocchet left Arizona. Keller finished third in Calder Trophy voting in his rookie year (also Tocchet’s first in Arizona) after scoring 65 points, but he wouldn’t score anywhere near that level again until after Tocchet left after the 2020-21 season. In Tocchet’s last season in Arizona, Keller had just 35 points in 56 games.
In the years that followed, Keller saw his icetime increase, and he’s basically been a point-per-game player ever since. There are a lot of other factors at play than just coaching — like Keller entering his prime after Tocchet’s departure, deployment and much-improved finishing — but it’s worth noting considering that Michkov doesn’t seem to fit in Tocchet’s system and that Tocchet doesn’t seem to trust him all that much.
It’s also starting to mirror the end of Tocchet’s tenure in Vancouver. In 2023-24, the Canucks won their division with 109 points and were eliminated in the second round (just like the Flyers) and then proceeded to fall off a cliff. Vancouver’s expected goals percentage at five-on-five dropped from 53.6 percent to 49.3 percent, and the goals dried up for the previously high-flying Canucks. It ended with the Canucks imploding and missing the playoffs. In Arizona, he made the playoffs once and then missed the playoffs the following year in what would be his last year in the desert.
It should be impossible for a team that made the playoffs last year and didn’t make significant changes in the offseason to be this bad. Yet, the Flyers are in a rough spot. An 0-5-2 start isn’t quite a death sentence, but it’s a steep climb for Philadelphia the rest of the way. At a certain point, it becomes less about winning and more about making sure that your two budding stars actually develop into stars. Even if Philadelphia rights the ship, it might not matter in the big picture if it doesn’t trust Martone and Michkov to lead the way.
Advanced stats are from Hockey Stats