A poll released Thursday offered good news for Democratic challengers in three key Lehigh Valley state legislative contests, though the races remain very tight.
The nonprofit State Navigate surveyed voters from parts of Lehigh and Bucks counties over the summer, and returned to those districts this week to ask follow-up questions. Democrats improved their position in seven of the nine districts polled, pollsters said, with early voters who sent in their ballots via mail or drop-box overwhelmingly leaning toward the party.
The poll has a margin or error of plus or minus 2.3%. Pollsters surveyed 1,855 likely voters Oct. 10-14.
Here are some key takeaways from the poll:
In the 16th Senate District, Democrat Mark Pinsley, Lehigh County’s controller, gained one percentage point and now leads incumbent Republican Jarrett Coleman with 49% to Coleman’s 46%, with 4% or those surveyed remaining undecided.
The poll also offered good news for Coleman. While early voters backed Pinsley 69%-25%, voters who have not yet cast a ballot were split evenly, 48%-48%, and an average of likely voter responses favored Coleman at 49% to Pinsley’s 46.1%.
Coleman was skeptical of the poll’s results.
“State Navigate has a horrible record when it comes to the accuracy of their polls, most recently being off by nearly 22 points 4 days before an election on another DSA candidate,” he said in a statement. “And that hasn’t changed since they released their last inaccurate poll on this race. Voters will reject Mark Pinsley’s radical record of raising taxes, proposing new family crushing taxes, and undermining law enforcement whenever he gets the chance.”
Pinsley’s campaign brushed off the poll.
“We aren’t paying too much attention to the polls because we always knew this was going to be a tight race and we don’t take anything for granted,” Pinsley’s campaign manager, Gary Masino, said in an email. “The more voters learn about Jarrett Coleman’s suspicious priorities in Harrisburg, the more they break for Mark. We’ll keep talking to voters through November 3rd and showing them the clear choice between more of the same corruption driving up our costs, or a Senator who actually works for them.”
In two House races, Democrats gained slight leads since the summer, though the contests remain within the margin of error, meaning they are still essentially toss-ups.
In the 187th District, Democratic newcomer Rachel Cuevas gained one percentage point and has 50% of the vote versus longtime Republican Rep. Gary Day’s 45%, with 4% undecided.
And in the 131st District, Democratic challenger Meriam Sabih leads Republican Rep. Milou Mackenzie 51%-46%, with 3% undecided. Sabih, who lost to Mackenzie two years ago by about 6,000 votes, also gained one point.