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Republican Representative Brian Fitzpatrick has won five terms in an evenly divided Pennsylvania House district, but he faces headwinds with the unpopularity of President Trump.HAIYUN JIANG/NYT
If Democrats flip the House on Tuesday, the size of that majority is an open question — and a consequential one.
That’s why I went to Pennsylvania’s Bucks County for a congressional race that is shaping up to be a pivotal test case.
The district is one of the most politically even seats in the country (the Cook Political Report ranks it a D+1 seat that nevertheless leans Republican), Locally popular five-term Republican Representative Brian Fitzpatrick. who consistently outperforms President Trump on the ballot, has emphasized his willingness to buck his party.
But Democrats hope Fitzpatrick’s defiance of gravity will end on Tuesday, weighed down by Trump’s historic unpopularity. Democrat Bob Harvie, a local teacher for 20 years, is a Bucks County commissioner. Polls have shown the race to be close, with Democrats buoyed by a recent New York Times/Philadelphia Inquirer/Siena poll that showed Harvie up by 2 percentage points, although well within the margin of error.
The campaign has been bitter, with voters inundated by negative TV ads and billboards and yard signs. On Tuesday, in a sign of the national focus on the race, the No. 2 House Democrat, Representative Katherine Clark of Revere, came to thank Harvie campaign volunteers and give them a pep talk before they went to knock on doors.
“This is going to be one of these linchpin seats as we come up to November 3,” Clark told the appreciative volunteers. “All of you are the ones who are going to make the difference.”
What’s at stake
The seat is exactly the kind of place Democrats need to win if they want a big majority. A Fitzpatrick victory, meanwhile, could show the limits of antipathy toward Trump versus Democrats’ own lingering unpopularity with voters.
Harvie’s potential — but also challenges with name recognition — showed while he went door-knocking in Levittown, a modest, working- and middle-class neighborhood. Two passersby rolled down their car windows to say they had voted for him.
Another resident initially thought he was Fitzpatrick.
Harvie’s pitch usually began with his endorsement from popular Governor Josh Shapiro, a Democrat. Harvie told residents he wanted to raise the minimum wage, get out of Iran, end tariffs, and fight corruption in DC — including that he rejects corporate PAC money and wants to ban congressional stock trading. Most residents who heard the pitch were politely receptive but noncommittal.
One woman who began the conversation through a cracked front window responded, “I love Josh Shapiro!”
“Okay,” Harvie responded. “You don’t love me?”
“Well, I don’t know that much about you,” she said, admitting as she opened the door that she was thinking of leaving that race blank on her ballot.
“You can,” Harvie said, delivering his go-to line. “But nothing changes in Washington unless you change who you send to Washington.”
The woman took the flier and wished him well — without tipping her hand.
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Plus: The 2026 midterms may be more important for the future of the GOP than the Democrats.
🧩 7 Across: Yoga pose | ☀️ 68° Chilly later
Patrick Stewart as “Star Trek” Captain Jean-Luc Picard.Elliott Marks
RIP Patrick Stewart: Stage giant and “X-Man” stalwart, his “Star Trek” Captain Jean-Luc Picard “taught us what it means to be a good man,” write the Globe’s Jason Laughlin and John Hilliard.
Is this turnabout fair play? A private equity investor defaulted on a big mortgage downtown, then bought it back for hundreds of millions of dollars less. Wells Fargo was left holding the bag.
Sandra Birchmore: Her former boyfriend testified that she had discussed suicide, but that he didn’t think she would kill herself.
Why so young? The rise of colon cancer among young people has been a mystery. Boston experts say they now have clues.
Gun control: Mass. has one of the nation’s most restrictive set of gun laws. A ballot question backed by gun groups wants to scrap some of them. In other news, a 14-year-old student has been arrested after allegedly bringing a loaded “ghost gun” to his Boston high school.
Don’t be evil: AI powerhouse Anthropic, going public, vows to do the right thing. The Globe’s Larry Edelman asks: Can it succeed where Google failed?
The Celtics’ $200 million gift: The team’s owners chipped in to help Boston Children’s Hospital create its new psychiatric wing in Brighton, Shirley Leung reports.
Back to earlier sunsets: Yes, daylight saving time ends this weekend, so set the clock back an hour Saturday night. One tip from your editor: Why not takeout dinner Sunday,
Down: The world of devoted roller-coaster enthusiasts is still in shock after a fatal accident and a reassessment of some of the nation’s edgier rides.
Singer Nikki Minaj greets the president at a rally in Michigan on Monday in which he complimented her backside.Alex Wong/Getty
Nicki Minaj: Trump didn’t demean the singer. She is demeaning herself, writes Renée Graham.
Money for nothing? What does a record $11.6 billion in political ads buy us? A nastier election, writes Yvonne Abraham.
Dear undecided voters: Need help? Here are the Globe endorsements in Tuesday’s election.
By David Beard
Inde Navarrette and Michael Johnston in a scene from “Obsession.”Uncredited/Focus Features via AP
🎃 Obsessed with scary movies? Rachel McAdams, Hannah Einbinder, Chiwetel Ejiofor and Inde Navarrette are among the stars in our Top 10 2026 horror movies and TV shows. And yeah, before you ask, “Widow’s Bay” is in there.
❤️ Blind Date: “As an avid watcher of ‘Love Is Blind,’ I knew this would be a fun experience.” Plus, the latest on the Boston “Love Is Blind” season, including a big breakup.
🍕 Yum: This popular pizza pop-up has just opened a storefront in Beacon Hill.
Karen Read: It never ends. Boston’s star defendant and her lawyer, Alan Jackson, are launching a true crime podcast next year based on hot-button court cases.
🎸 Noah Kahan and KATSEYE: First, the Noah part: The Vermont singer-songwriter announced a tour that features four shows at Fenway Park — and not Gillette. Also, what happens when a skeptical mom and her KATSEYE-crazy daughter take a trip to TD Garden?
🚢 Not so ‘endless’ cruise: A ship that promised ticket-buyers a forever journey worldwide came to an abrupt halt after two years, leaving seaboard residents stranded in Cambodia.
🎙️ Today’s songs: “Too Good To Be True,” Kacey Musgraves. Also (why not?): “This is Halloween,” from “The Nightmare Before Christmas.”
Thanks for reading Starting Point. Enjoy the weekend.
This newsletter was edited by David Beard and produced by Ryan Orlecki.
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Tal Kopan can be reached at tal.kopan@globe.com. Follow her @talkopan.