Brandon Lowe/Photo provided by Matt Lynch
MLB free agency officially opened on Monday evening and players are permitted to negotiate deals with any of the 30 teams in the league.
This year’s offseason is going to be a unique one. The current collective bargaining agreement expires on Dec. 1, and a lockout is viewed as likely. The uncertainty surrounding the winter could lead to early action in both the free agent and trade markets as teams look to make acquisitions before a transaction freeze.
MLB Trade Rumors released its annual free agent list with predictions. Using their top 50, I give my own predictions on where I think free agents will land this offseason.
Many will be wrong. Some will hopefully be right. But it’s one of my favorite things to do in the offseason. Here’s how I see free agency unfolding.
1. LHP Tarik Skubal: Mets
MLB free agency is full of surprises, but it’s hard to envision Skubal landing with anyone else other than the Dodgers or Mets. Steve Cohen can’t be happy with how New York’s season went. I think he’ll be aggressive this winter and outbid the dethroned Dodgers.
2. LHP Trevor Rogers: White Sox
The White Sox — the surprise team of 2026 — have some money to spend and a need in the rotation. Rogers is among the handful of possibilities that would be a good fit.
3. RHP Freddy Peralta: Cubs
It will be interesting to see what kind of contract Peralta lands this season. He had been so good during his career with the Brewers, struggled with the Mets to start the year before figuring it out again with the Rays. Let’s reunite him with his former manager Craig Counsell.
4. OF Seiya Suzuki: Mariners
The Mariners need offense. They could reunite with Randy Arozarena, who is also a free agent. But I think Suzuki is playing for a team other than the Cubs next year and Seattle is a good fit.
5. OF Randy Arozarena: Blue Jays
Speaking of Arozarena, he heads to another team in need of a lineup upgrade. The Blue Jays need corner outfield help and Arozarena is arguably the best option available.
6. RHP Michael King: Padres
The Padres need plenty of starting pitching this offseason. They begin by re-upping with King, who has been excellent over the last three years in San Diego.
7. 3B Teruaki Sato: Yankees
Sato is the top international player available this offseason. The Yankees could use a left-handed hitting third baseman with thump. Seems like a good fit.
8. LHP Adrián Morejón: Mets
I have the Mets signing the top starter available and now I have them signing the top reliever available. The Mets need a lot of help. Cohen’s spending habits will get them some.
9. C Ryan Jeffers: Giants
There are a handful of teams that could use a catcher. Buster Posey knowns the importance of a quality backstop better than anyone. Let’s give his team the best free agent catcher available.
10. RHP Kaima Taira: Astros
I have new Astros GM Randy Flores — uncle of Pirates starter Jared Jones — making a splash in the international market by signing Taira out of Japan.
11. 2B Brandon Lowe: Red Sox
Sorry Pirates fans, I just don’t see Lowe returning to Pittsburgh. The position player market is thin this year and Lowe is the top left-handed slugger available. There will be stiff competition to try and land him, including from some of the biggest markets in the sport.
12. RHP David Bednar: Yankees
Deep down, part of Bednar would probably like to come home to Pittsburgh. But he’s due to cash in this offseason as one of the better closers and has a good thing going in New York.
13. RHP Sonny Gray: Braves
Gray and the Braves just feels like a good fit. Atlanta needs to add to its rotation and the right-handed veteran would be a solid upgrade.
14. RHP Tyler Mahle: Braves
Another one for the Braves. Mahle was so good in Atlanta after landing there in a deadline deal. Keep a good thing going.
15. INF Luis Arraez: Twins
I had trouble finding a landing spot for Arraez, truthfully. There are a few spots that make sense, but how about a homecoming in Minnesota?
16. RHP Clay Holmes: Cubs
The Cubs paid a pretty hefty price to land Holmes from the Mets at the deadline. I don’t think they would’ve done that for two months of his services. Like the Padres, Chicago needs to do a lot with its starting rotation.
17. OF Ian Happ: Phillies
The Phillies need a bat in the outfield. They’d probably prefer someone younger than Happ given they have an aging roster but he’s one of the better options available.
18. RHP Kevin Gausman: Orioles
Baltimore loses Rogers but lands a replacement in Gausman, who was originally selected by Baltimore in the first round of the 2012 MLB Draft.
19. RHP Nick Martinez: Blue Jays
Martinez was sensational in his first year with the Rays. He had been a swingman for much of his career but thrived as a regular starter. He gets rewarded with a nice deal from Toronto.
20. 2B Jazz Chisholm Jr.: Tigers
Gleyber Torres is a free agent and the Tigers could be on the prowl for an infielder. Chisholm seems like a good fit after a run with the Yankees.
21. LHP Shota Imanaga: Rangers
The Rangers were a team I had my eye on last offseason for Imanaga before he accepted a qualifying offer from the Cubs. I’m sticking with them this winter because why not.
22. LHP Foster Griffin: Padres
More starting pitching help for the Padres, this time a left-hander. Griffin was good with the Nationals to start the year but struggled after a trade to the Guardians. He should still generate plenty of interest.
23. 1B Ty France: Mets
The Mets might aim higher than France for their opening at first base. I’m sure they’re regretting letting Pete Alonso walk in free agency last offseason.
24. RHP Dustin May: Nationals
The Nationals need a starter. May is an interesting case this winter but I like D.C. as a fit.
25. RHP Casey Mize: Tigers
Mize was traded by the Tigers to the Padres at this year’s MLB trade deadline. Let’s send him back to Detroit, who took him with the top pick in 2018.
26. RHP Michael Soroka: Diamondbacks
Soroka had a really good year with Arizona this season. Why break up a good match?
27. LHP Alex Vesia: Dodgers
It took this long for me to predict a player to the Dodgers which is concerning. But re-signing Vesia seems logical given his performance with the team over the last six years.
28. RHP Nick Pivetta: Padres
Remember when I said the Padres needed multiple starters this winter? Here’s No. 3.
29. RHP Evan Phillips: Dodgers
Another bullpen re-signing for the Dodgers. Phillips has been effective when healthy in Los Angeles.
30. LHP David Peterson: Giants
The Giants will be looking for a starter this offseason. Peterson pairs well with battery mate Ryan Jeffers as another splash addition.
31. 1B/OF Jake Bauers: Brewers
Bauers helped lead Milwaukee to its first World Series championship. I think there’s a decent chance he accepts the qualifying offer. If not, the Brewers remain a possibility. So do the Mets.
32. RHP Bryan Abreu: Yankees
The Yankees will need another late-inning reliever to pair with Bednar. Abreu had a little bit of a down season with Houston but is still effective.
33. C Carson Kelly: Rangers
Texas needs a catcher. Kelly, who played 31 games for the Rangers in 2024, has been good for the Cubs the last two years.
34. CF Daulton Varsho: Royals
Varsho will look to reestablish himself following a down year and will probably settle for a one-year deal. A team like the Royals makes sense as a fit.
35. RHP Emilio Pagán: Tigers
Kenley Jansen is a free agent after the Tigers declined his option. Pagán has experience in the late innings and has 57 saves over the last two years with the Reds.
36. RHP Hiromi Itoh: Marlins
The Marlins make a splash internationally by landing Itoh out of Japan.
37. INF Mauricio Dubón: Braves
Dubón’s first year with the Braves was one of the best of his career. They seem to be high on him and I think they’ll bring him back.
38. RHP Raisel Iglesias: Braves
Another instance of the Braves running it back. As he did last year, I think Iglesias signs another one-year deal in Atlanta. It’s hard to believe his ’26 All-Star nod was the first of his career.
39. INF J.P. Crawford: Reds
The Reds could look for help at multiple infield positions. That’s especially true if they consider trading star shortstop Elly De La Cruz. Crawford is an option with versatility.
40. C Tyler Stephenson: Twins
Minnesota will be one of the teams looking to add a catcher this offseason. Stephenson has been steady throughout his career.
41. RHP Paul Blackburn: Astros
Every team is looking for relief help. The Astros are no exception. Blackburn was good with the Yankees this year and is one of the many options that makes sense.
42. LHP Steven Okert: Rangers
Okert will be 36 in July but has been very effective the last two years in Houston. I have him staying in the state of Texas but pitching in a new city.
43. OF Luis Robert Jr.: Astros
Robert has talent but has also had plenty of injuries and inconsistent performance. Maybe he can get on track like the train that runs in Daikin Park in Houston.
44. DH Joc Pederson: Diamondbacks
It was surprising to see Pederson opt out of his deal with the Rangers. He was sensational with the Diamondbacks two years ago and they clearly have a need for left-handed thump.
45. RHP Jonathan Loáisiga: Guardians
The Guardians are typically pretty quiet in the offseason but make calculated moves. They seem to always get the most out of the relievers so they could be an attractive landing spot for Loáisiga.
46. LHP JoJo Romero: Pirates
Gregory Soto is a free agent. The only other left-handers on the 40-man roster are Mason Montgomery, Evan Sisk, Brandon Eisert and Hunter Barco. The Pirates need another lefty in the bullpen and Romero is a logical fit.
47. LHP Matthew Boyd: Athletics
The Athletics need rotation help in the worst way. Boyd pitched well in 22 starts for the Cubs this year following an All-Star campaign in 2025.
48. LHP Kris Bubic: Rays
Bubic showed he can be an All-Star when healthy and is likely looking for a one-year prove-it contract. Where better to go than Tampa Bay, who finds a way to make it work.
49. OF Taylor Ward: Red Sox
Ward is a fit for a number of teams. Boston certainly among them. Going from hitting in Camden Yards and T-Mobile Park to Fenway Park could do wonders for his power numbers.
50. LHP Robbie Ray: Cardinals
The Cardinals could use a veteran starting pitcher and Ray is fresh off a pretty solid year. If St. Louis doesn’t contend next year, he’s a clear flip candidate.
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