Every Thursday during the college football season, I’ll release my favorite spots to bet for the upcoming week.
A great example of a “spot” play is Vanderbilt’s upset over Alabama last season. The Commodores were returning home after two straight road losses, while Alabama was coming off an emotional win over No. 2 Georgia. Vanderbilt won the game outright as a 23-point underdog.
You can bet college football games this week at FanDuel Sportsbook, where new users get $150 in bonus bets with a winning $5 wager:
Just for clarification, I’ll always mention if I bet the game personally. Sometimes, I will like the spot for a certain team but my numbers may not see enough value to make it an official play. Here are three strong betting spots for Week 12:
Michigan State Spartans +7.5 vs. Penn State Nittany Lions
It’s difficult to back Michigan State right now. The Spartans have lost six straight games with their last win coming on Sept. 13 over FCS Youngstown State. However, Penn State is in one of the worst spots of the season on Saturday.
The Nittany Lions went from ranked No. 2 in the country to a team that lost its starting quarterback and fired its head coach. Now, Penn State enters Saturday on a six-game losing streak. Credit to the Nittany Lions for still fighting. They lost to Iowa by one, competed for a half against No. 1 Ohio State and almost upset No. 2 Indiana last Saturday.
You have to wonder how much these players have left in the tank mentally after two emotional losses to Ohio State and Indiana. The loss to the Hoosiers was particularly gut-wrenching because Penn State came from behind to take a late lead before losing in the final seconds on one of the best catches you will ever see by Omar Cooper Jr.
This is a tough spot for Penn State on the road laying over a touchdown. I can see a scenario where the Nittany Lions start off slowly and this settles into a close, low-scoring game. I like the Spartans to cover at home and potentially pull off the outright upset.
Pittsburgh Panthers +12.5 vs. Notre Dame Fighting Irish
The Fighting Irish have been rolling since starting the season 0-2, winning seven straight by an average of 28.5 points. However, this is Notre Dame’s last real test of the season and probably the only game standing between the Irish and the College Football Playoff.
Pitt is an interesting team. The Panthers lost two straight games in September to West Virginia and Louisville, each by seven points. Since then, Pitt has rattled off five consecutive wins. Granted, the competition hasn’t been overly tough, but the Panthers are playing their best football of the season and have the luxury of coming off a bye week.
This is Pitt’s Super Bowl, while Notre Dame just needs to survive to keep its playoff hopes alive. I don’t buy into the narrative that the Irish need style points to impress the committee. If Notre Dame wins its next three games, they are in the CFP — case closed.
I love this Fighting Irish team, although I think Pitt puts up a fight at home and covers the large spread.
South Carolina Gamecocks +19.5 at Texas A&M Aggies
This is an interesting spot for Texas A&M. The Aggies have been road warriors this season and are playing their first home game in over a month. Texas A&M could have one eye on bigger things, though, with Texas, the SEC Championship and College Football Playoff all on the horizon.
South Carolina is in the midst of a dismal season. The Gamecocks were a sexy pick to make the CFP but have stumbled to a 3-6 record. They enter this matchup losers of four straight.
While it’s been a disappointing season in Columbia, Shane Beamer does find a way to keep games close when his team is a big underdog. The Gamecocks have lost just once by 20+ points this season, and that was versus Vanderbilt when starting QB LaNorris Sellers left the game with an injury. South Carolina has also covered three straight in this series.
There is no doubt Texas A&M is the better team here, but as we approach Thanksgiving, the pressure starts to mount with the playoff looming. Maybe the Gamecocks have checked out mentally, but I’m taking a shot they can muck this game up and stay within 19 points Saturday.