The stakes for the upcoming ACC clash between the Miami Hurricanes and the Pittsburgh Panthers involve complex tiebreaker scenarios that have turned the conference standings into a chaotic jigsaw puzzle.
On the Wednesday episode of ESPN’s Always College Football podcast, college football analyst Greg McElroy predicted that Miami would navigate this challenge successfully on the road. The former quarterback believes the Hurricanes will secure a victory by overwhelming Pittsburgh at the line of scrimmage.
Miami needs a win to preserve its standing as a potential at-large candidate for the College Football Playoff. A loss would drop the team to a 9-3 record and effectively end their postseason aspirations beyond a bowl game.
Pittsburgh Panthers head coach Pat Narduzzi faces a more linear path that requires a win over Miami, combined with a loss by either Virginia or SMU, to reach the ACC title game.
McElroy emphasized that the Hurricanes are currently fielding their best roster of the season. He argued that if Miami commits to running the football and avoids turnovers, they will handle business away from home. The analyst pointed to the disparity between Miami’s pass rush and Pittsburgh’s struggles in pass protection as the deciding factor.
The primary concern for Pittsburgh is whether their offensive line can withstand the pressure from a formidable Miami defensive front. The Panthers have surrendered 36 sacks this season and struggled against defensive groups far less talented than the Hurricanes. Pittsburgh allowed six sacks to Georgia Tech and seven to Syracuse in recent weeks.
Miami features the defensive duo of Akheem Mesidor and Rueben Bain Jr., whom McElroy describes as perhaps the most fearsome tandem in the ACC. This pressure could force Pittsburgh quarterback Mason Heintschel into critical mistakes despite his ability to extend plays. Heintschel has thrown six interceptions this year and will need to negotiate the rush carefully to keep the offense moving.
Health is another major factor tilting the field in favor of the visitors. Miami Hurricanes head coach Mario Cristobal noted that his team is getting healthy at the right time. Key contributors like wide receiver CJ Daniels and defensive tackle Ahmad Moten are returning to the rotation. Running back Mark Fletcher is also back to full speed, which bolsters a rushing attack averaging nearly 150 yards per game.
Miami (FL) Hurricanes quarterback Carson Beck (11) is coming off one of his best games after throwing for 320 yards and four touchdowns against Virginia Tech last week. / Brian Bishop-Imagn Images
Turnovers remain the wildcard in this matchup. Miami has committed 10 turnovers this season, with six occurring in their two losses. McElroy noted that when the Hurricanes keep a clean sheet, they typically win by margins of 21 points or more. Conversely, Pittsburgh has forced 19 turnovers, ranking them in the top 20 nationally.
The weather at Acrisure Stadium is forecast to be in the low 30s with wind chills in the 20s. Cristobal dismissed the cold as a non-factor and emphasized that his players are excited for the environment. Quarterback Carson Beck enters the game in top form after throwing for 320 yards and four touchdowns against Virginia Tech. His 74.1 percent completion rate leads the conference.
The Hurricanes will face the Pittsburgh Panthers at Acrisure Stadium on Saturday at noon ET on ABC.