Week 7 of the NFL season gets underway on Thursday night with the Pittsburgh Steelers visiting the Cincinnati Bengals. The Bengals have lost four straight games since losing Joe Burrow to injury. Meanwhile, the Steelers are quietly 4-1 and look to be improving each week.

This matchup features the two oldest starting quarterbacks in the league with Aaron Rodgers (41) and Joe Flacco (40) going head-to-head. This is only the second matchup of two 40+ year old quarterbacks, with Tom Brady and Drew Brees being the only other two to go head-to-head after surpassing the age of 40.

The Steelers are road favorites at all top Pennsylvania sportsbooks, which is to be expected when looking at the teams and their records. However, the Bengals looked slightly more dangerous in Flacco’s first game under center. Can we see some Flacco magic on Thursday night?

Steelers vs. Bengals predictions and best betsOver 45.5 (-105 odds at DraftKings Sportsbook)DK Metcalf Anytime Touchdown (+140 odds at DraftKings Sportsbook)

*Note: Odds are based on the best value our experts find as of publication; check lines closer to game time to ensure you get the best odds.

On paper, this might not be the most appealing game. With that being said, there’s a clear path to the Over in this one.

Aaron Rodgers has had a decent bounce-back season. While he might not be the elite, MVP level talent he was in Green Bay he ranks 16th in EPA per drop back, which makes him a solid, average NFL quarterback.

One key aspect to focus on with Rodgers as he ages and becomes less mobile is his performance when dealing with pressure. When under pressure, Rodgers ranks 27th in EPA. From a clean pocket, he ranks 12th, per nfelo. It makes sense; he can’t escape or move how he used to.

It looks like Trey Hendrickson will miss the game for Cincinnati, which increases our chances of seeing good Aaron Rodgers as he won’t have to deal with one of the league’s elite pass rushers. He can take advantage of this Bengals’ secondary, which is giving up the second most passing yards per game in the league.

DK Metcalf has scored a touchdown in four straight games. Metcalf was bought in to be the No. 1 receiver in Pittsburgh, and he’s establishing himself in that role.

When you look at Rodgers’ career, he finds a wide receiver he trusts and he peppers them with targets. Is Metcalf the current version of Jordy Nelson or Davante Adams? At this price, with this matchup, I’m willing to pay to find out.

On the other side of this matchup, we have Joe Flacco. At this point, he’s a clear upgrade on the 2025 version of Jake Browning. Flacco knows what he is at this point and he knows what he has. I expect him to sling the rock around and hope that his elite WR duo of Tee Higgins and Ja’Marr Chase makes plays for him.

Flacco performed decently enough against the elite Packers’ defense. If we get that level of performance, I like our chances of this game going over the total. He’s had another week of practice time, and the Steelers are a bit of an easier matchup than Green Bay.

Flacco is also prone to turnovers at this point in his career, and a short field or two can lead to quick points to make an impact on over/under betting.

Steelers vs. Bengals moneyline odds analysisWhy Pittsburgh can win as the favorite

Best odds: -250 at BetMGM Sportsbook

If things go according to plan, Pittsburgh wins this game.

Their defense should be able to keep the 2025 version of Joe Flacco in check. Cincinnati ranks 26th in EPA/rush. If the Steelers can stop the run, they will turn Flacco into a pocket passer. At his age, he’s a statue. T.J. Watt and company can have a field day.

On the other end Aaron Rodgers should be able to make enough plays against the weak Cincinnati secondary to score some points.

Why Cincinnati can win as the underdog

Best odds: +215 at DraftKings Sportsbook

Joe Flacco has had some magical moments in his later career. Whether it was erasing a 13-point deficit in less than two minutes with the Jets, or leading the Browns to the playoffs, that arm has some magic left in it.

This could be a lookahead spot for Pittsburgh, especially their quarterback, with Aaron Rodgers playing against the Packers for the first time next week.

Pittsburgh also has a history of underperforming when the expectations are raised and underwhelming when they’re lower. Mike Tomlin is 15-31 against the spread as a road favorite coming off an outright victory.

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