Accurate, timely and credible data is the lifeblood of any modern society, crucial to public and private sector players alike. Statistical information guides policy, underpins investment decisions and shapes public debate.
The erosion of reliable statistics carries real costs: it distorts public spending, fuels uncertainty in markets and weakens democratic accountability. Producing credible statistics is an expensive and time-consuming process, but if we fail to invest in this, we will end up with a roadmap that points in the wrong direction.
Statistics are also politically charged, as recent events in the US have shown. Shooting the messenger does not change the message. The independence and capacity of statistical institutions must be jealously guarded.
How are we doing in South Africa? Stats SA is a key institution with a proud history. It has mostly been able to adapt to changing demands and maintain its credibility. Population growth and increased complexity have placed new demands on the institution, and it has largely held firm.
But Stats SA is under increased pressure, and certain areas of weakness have emerged. There have been widespread questions about the 2022 census and persistent queries about some other surveys. This is largely due to a shortage of resources in the face of rising demands.
The Stats SA budget has reduced steadily in real terms at a time when it should be rising in response to larger populations and more complex demands. More than 700 posts are reportedly vacant. This, alongside outdated IT systems and declining survey response rates, has forced it to scale back surveys in key areas such as tourism, municipal demographics and agriculture.
It has also struggled to keep tabs on increasing levels of complexity, as the debate around unemployment statistics has shown. Stats SA has responded well to criticism and maintained high levels of technical expertise, but this job cannot be done without the requisite resources. A relatively small budget increase to this function could make a large difference.
In the meantime, the world of information is changing fast. The digital world relies on and generates data that is exponentially more complex than it was even a few years ago. Data is the new gold. Large-scale data is increasingly in the hands of private companies. This creates a whole new set of opportunities for co-operation.
Around the world, statistical authorities are setting up partnerships with private companies. In the UK, Estonia and Canada, national statistical agencies have co-operated with private companies to generate health statistics, use payment data to track tourism and SME growth, and use mobile phone patterns to understand population movements.
South African banks hold huge volumes of transaction data, which could help to illuminate the size of the informal economy, guide housing policy and improve SME funding. Mobile network operators, with more than 124-million active cellular connections in South Africa, could help to track tourist flows in real time, as Indonesia has done through a partnership between its largest mobile operator and the national statistics agency.
Private sector data in South Africa tends to be underused and siloed. A well-structured partnership between Stats SA and private firms could strengthen the granularity and accuracy of the national evidence base without compromising confidentiality. With the right governance, large-scale data could be properly anonymised to ensure compliance with competition and privacy protections.
Such partnerships would not be a substitute for public funding, but they could strengthen our data system. Credible data is not a nice-to-have; it is an essential public good and a prerequisite for sound policy. If South Africa is to navigate its economic challenges, we cannot afford to fly blind.
The authors work in the economic growth and impact practice at Genesis Analytics.