Cincinnati Bengals v Pittsburgh Steelers - NFL 2025

Getty Images

While it’s not a must-win game for either side, Sunday’s showdown between the Pittsburgh Steelers and the visiting Buffalo Bills certainly carries plenty of significance for both teams. 

Neither team has had much success as of late. Buffalo (7-4) has lost two of its last three games, including last week’s 23-19 loss to the Houston Texans. The Bills are now 2.5 games behind the New England Patriots in the AFC East standings and are currently hanging onto the AFC’s seventh and final playoff spot. 

Pittsburgh (6-5) finds itself on the outside of the AFC playoff picture for the first time this season following last week’s 31-28 loss to the Chicago Bears — a game played without Aaron Rodgers, who Mike Tomlin has said will start on Sunday. Once again, the Steelers’ loss was the byproduct of a struggling pass defense and an offense that seems incapable of pushing the ball downfield. 

Where to watch Bills vs. Steelers liveBills vs. Steelers: Need to know Allen has Steelers’ number. Buffalo is 4-1 against Pittsburgh with Josh Allen starting at quarterback, with the most recent win coming in the 2023 AFC wild card round. Allen scored four total touchdowns that day while leading the Bills to a 31-17 win. Rodgers is starting. The Steelers are getting Aaron Rodgers back, but he’ll be dealing with a fracture in his left wrist that he sustained during Pittsburgh’s Week 11 win over the Browns. In Rodgers’ absence last week, backup Mason Rudolph went 24 of 31 for 174 yards with a touchdown and a pick against the Bears. He completed his last 10 passes in the first half after throwing an interception on his very first pass of the game.Turnovers, anyone? Buffalo’s ball security has been an issue lately. The Bills have turned it over three times in each of their last three games. Rest assured that Pittsburgh’s defense (which lives and dies off of forcing turnovers) is well-aware of Buffalo’s recent penchant for turnovers. Bills’ offensive line is banged up. The Bills will be without their two starting offensive tackles as Dion Dawkins is out with a concussion and Spencer Brown has a shoulder injury. Reeling run defense. Buffalo’s defense has also contributed to the team’s recent struggles. The Bills gave up a whopping 197 yards in their Week 10 loss to the Miami Dolphins, 197 a week later in a win over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and 108 during last week’s loss in Houston. The Bills are currently 30th in the NFL in rushing yards allowed, last in the league in touchdown runs allowed and 31st in average yards-per-carry allowed. Still Cook-ing. While Allen is still the vocal point of the Bills’ offense, running back James Cook has become a force to be reckoned with. He’s currently second in the NFL with 1,084 yards after rushing for 116 yards and a touchdown (on just 17 carries) last week against Houston’s stout run defense. New RB duo. While Pittsburgh’s passing game has yet to take flight, its running game is beginning to take shape with Kenneth Gainwell and Jaylen Warren. Last week, the duo combined to run for 158 yards and a touchdown on 28 carries. Gainwell’s 55-yard run in the first half set up a short touchdown run by Warren. Speaking of passing. The Steelers’ pass defense hasn’t performed the way that coach Mike Tomlin surely hoped it would. The unit, which is now 31st in the league in passing yards allowed, hasn’t seemed to recover from DeShon Elliott’s knee injury that has sidelined him since Week 5. Bills vs. Steelers prediction, pick 

As bad as they’ve looked lately, this is the type of game the Steelers usually win under Tomlin. That, in addition to the fact that the Bills have some legitimate weaknesses (i.e. their run defense and inability to protect the ball on offense), has compelled me to take the Steelers in an upset. Pick: Steelers, +3, Under 45.5Â